Stock Market Prediction

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The markets have done nothing but gone up for a LONG time (except for the COVID blip, and even then, it didn't last long).

Nothing says they can't go down for just as long as they've gone up...I know it's a frightening thought...but there could be years of a down/sideways market coming....years and years and years

A price needs to be paid for what happened during COVID...all that money spent...all those years of Fed manipulation...all this new money being spent on Ukraine...

it's not going to be fun

I think until we get to reasonable interest rates and also reasonable corporate earnings forecasts you are spot on.


Still haven't seen any big tech offer up reasonable guidance going forward, they are all sitting there telling us that they can continue to grow at 2020 or 2021 levels and that is a pipe dream given the pull forward and record liquidity of those years.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Another day, more carnage. I think the only thing that can save the market is if the Fed spooks themselves. They see the markets imploding with the interest rate hikes. At what point do they scare themselves and stop? I can see that happening.

100% agree, we have to consider this as a possibility, rock bottom rates and printing money has been the go to for decades. Chances are the powers that be will go to that well again.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

S&P was at 3225 before Covid started....it was a steady 12% for the past 6 years before

If we take the usual 12% gain for 2 years we get 4045

Now we are at 3991....


WE ARE NOW F$%^&D!!!!!

only if you are long and wrong

[BettinBilly]

it's not a fun ride, that for sure.

Even my VERY conservative retirement funds are down 12 percent from December. Nothing I can do now but hold on and hope the landing is soft.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

it's not a fun ride, that for sure.

Even my VERY conservative retirement funds are down 12 percent from December. Nothing I can do now but hold on and hope the landing is soft.

don't hope, get out of the way. even if i am temporarily wrong, the stuff you have will not come back for many years if it ever does.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

don't hope, get out of the way. even if i am temporarily wrong, the stuff you have will not come back for many years if it ever does.

So your advice to him is to "Sell Low"


I'm buying shit every day right now.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

So your advice to him is to "Sell Low"


I'm buying shit every day right now.

Your some brave dude!!!

While market is still on the down trend buying now doesn't seem the right thing to do....

When the whole turns upward then it might be time

But what the fuck I know....

Looks like I'm coming out of retirement and going to have to find a job

[PaceAdvantage]

If you're retired, your money shouldn't be tied to something like the stock market. At least enough of it to make you nervous during times like these.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Your some brave dude!!!

While market is still on the down trend buying now doesn't seem the right thing to do....

When the whole turns upward then it might be time

But what the fuck I know....

Looks like I'm coming out of retirement and going to have to find a job

I'm not going all in by any means, but spending 1-2% of your cash position every time new lows are hit is exactly the right thing todo. Allocated correctly it gives you 75 buying opportunities as the market drops. That beats thinking we can hit the perfect time to buy, which all of the sudden everyone seems to be an expert at.



That being said I'm 42 years old with an investment timeline that mostly includes trying to buy at something other than all time highs, which the last 10 years has been kind of difficult.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Your some brave dude!!!

While market is still on the down trend buying now doesn't seem the right thing to do....

When the whole turns upward then it might be time

But what the fuck I know....

Looks like I'm coming out of retirement and going to have to find a job

the leading index is down close to 30% off the top.. i laid out the parameters in black and white.

there are simply to many headwinds for equity markets to hop over. the main one is the strength of the dollar. i have no idea how that thing is so strong right now, but it is. and there is much more to it than just rises in interest rates. i bought gold in 2000 when the dollar was 121, gold was $300 then.the dollar had a low of 78 and gold got to 2000 on that. now the dollar has already surpassed its 50% retracement off the big move. it could be doing a 1-1 that could bring the buck right back to 121. if that happens, the equity markets will not be to pretty.

[lamboguy]

why won't it look pretty? at that point, Apple will have to drop their prices so their products along with other companies. one Apple and Microsoft go, you will be saying see you but don't want to be you..
rust me, i don't want to be right.. i just want to be prepared.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If you're retired, your money shouldn't be tied to something like the stock market. At least enough of it to make you nervous during times like these.

Agreed. I have a 10 to 15 year horizon on my funds. Bonds and equity. It's what most investments preparing for retirement are nationwide.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the leading index is down close to 30% off the top..

which index is this? NASDAQ?

S&P isn't even down 20% yet...

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

don't hope, get out of the way. even if i am temporarily wrong, the stuff you have will not come back for many years if it ever does.

I understand your position, but I disagree. The market, over time, will rise again. This is a correction that has been predicted for a long time. On a 10 to 15 year horizon, a well managed fund consisting of bonds and equity will be fine on that kind of time horizon.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

which index is this? NASDAQ?

S&P isn't even down 20% yet...

nasdaq