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Old 10-27-2022, 04:01 PM   #31
InsideThePylons-MW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Math gets 'em every time.
The average horseplayer loses takeout.

If the avg horseplayer bets $200W they lose $32 on that bet.

If the avg horseplayer bets $200 P-4 they lose $48 on that bet.


If a win pool is $100K the bettors pay $16K for that pool.

If a P-4 pool is $100K the bettors pay $24K for that pool.

99.9% of horseplayers lose long term so justifying 24% takeout which crushes those horseplayers worse than 16% takeout is a wonderful tact to take.

That's what is called "real life math"
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Old 10-27-2022, 04:11 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
Comparing the P4 to what would be a god awful bet, a four race win parlay at the current rates, is the spin. I would never tell somebody Spam is great because it tastes better than artificial crab meat. The rest, sure, I know the advantages.

But 24% is too high in my opinion. I'd bet racetracks would make more money with more reasonable rakes, particularly in the P4/P5 arena. But my opinion doesn't really matter. People are being paid a lot of money to make these decisions.
We've got guys like Andy justifying high takeout with bogus math which is why racing is in the shape it's in.

How's high takeout working out for racing?

Handle down 50% AFI since 2005.

Keep on killing players with high takeout and horrible advice.

Without casino welfare it'd be on it's death bed.
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Old 10-27-2022, 06:39 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW View Post
We've got guys like Andy justifying high takeout with bogus math which is why racing is in the shape it's in.

How's high takeout working out for racing?

Handle down 50% AFI since 2005.

Keep on killing players with high takeout and horrible advice.

Without casino welfare it'd be on it's death bed.
It's not bogus math insofar as it's bogus logic. We can all play it.

Betting $0.50 in the pick 4 is better than betting $2 in the WPS pool because you're only losing 12 cents as opposed to 32 cents in takeout! See how simple that is? Play the pick 4, dummy
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Old 10-27-2022, 07:14 PM   #34
o_crunk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW View Post
The average horseplayer loses takeout.
It's actually worse than this.

Here's the after takeout ROI by origin of wager for "track X" the last 10 years cumulative. This is real data.

NYRA simulcast:

DD $0.74
EX $0.71
P03 $0.70
P04 $0.56
PLC $0.79
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.67
TRI $0.68
WIN $0.80

The "public" at large (this is everything that isn't the bigger teams who have their own tote codes):

DD $0.72
EX $0.72
P03 $0.72
P04 $0.71
PLC $0.80
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.72
TRI $0.71
WIN $0.80

The "average" player is doing worse than losing takeout in the harder to hit exotics.
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Old 10-27-2022, 07:50 PM   #35
the little guy
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Theoretically that's the beauty of the pari-mutual system, while handle minus takeout is returned to players, the "average" player will lose more than takeout. This is all part of the reason that if you are, in face, above average, your advantage increases with every additional slot you play in exotics, be they verticals or horizontals. It's just common sense.

Ask yourself how much of a win pool a 2:1 favorite comprises. What percentage, then, of the exacta pool? The trifecta pool? The Super pool?

It's a good discussion in general. Thanks for the numbers.
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Old 10-27-2022, 08:09 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o_crunk View Post
It's actually worse than this.

Here's the after takeout ROI by origin of wager for "track X" the last 10 years cumulative. This is real data.

NYRA simulcast:

DD $0.74
EX $0.71
P03 $0.70
P04 $0.56
PLC $0.79
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.67
TRI $0.68
WIN $0.80

The "public" at large (this is everything that isn't the bigger teams who have their own tote codes):

DD $0.72
EX $0.72
P03 $0.72
P04 $0.71
PLC $0.80
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.72
TRI $0.71
WIN $0.80

The "average" player is doing worse than losing takeout in the harder to hit exotics.
You have two groups of numbers, mostly similar, huge difference in the pick 4. First group indicates what? Second group indicates what?
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Old 10-27-2022, 09:51 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Theoretically that's the beauty of the pari-mutual system, while handle minus takeout is returned to players, the "average" player will lose more than takeout. This is all part of the reason that if you are, in face, above average, your advantage increases with every additional slot you play in exotics, be they verticals or horizontals. It's just common sense.

Ask yourself how much of a win pool a 2:1 favorite comprises. What percentage, then, of the exacta pool? The trifecta pool? The Super pool?

It's a good discussion in general. Thanks for the numbers.
Of course it's better for those that have an advantage...that's not what the initial discussion was.

24% takeout P-4 is much worse than a 16% win bet for 99.9% of horseplayers. It's not better cause it's four spots. I think crunk's data shows how really bad it is.

I can't understand how anybody who cares at all about horseplayers or the sport can defend or justify stuff like this.
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Old 10-27-2022, 09:53 PM   #38
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Is 24% the norm for pick 4's? If it isnt why play this pick 4 at that price?

Feels like its an option, dont have to take it, especially if there is better pricing out there.
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Old 10-27-2022, 09:59 PM   #39
InsideThePylons-MW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o_crunk View Post
It's actually worse than this.

Here's the after takeout ROI by origin of wager for "track X" the last 10 years cumulative. This is real data.

NYRA simulcast:

DD $0.74
EX $0.71
P03 $0.70
P04 $0.56
PLC $0.79
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.67
TRI $0.68
WIN $0.80

The "public" at large (this is everything that isn't the bigger teams who have their own tote codes):

DD $0.72
EX $0.72
P03 $0.72
P04 $0.71
PLC $0.80
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.72
TRI $0.71
WIN $0.80

The "average" player is doing worse than losing takeout in the harder to hit exotics.
Real data gets 'em every time.
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Old 10-28-2022, 11:04 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Theoretically that's the beauty of the pari-mutual system, while handle minus takeout is returned to players, the "average" player will lose more than takeout. This is all part of the reason that if you are, in face, above average, your advantage increases with every additional slot you play in exotics, be they verticals or horizontals. It's just common sense.

Ask yourself how much of a win pool a 2:1 favorite comprises. What percentage, then, of the exacta pool? The trifecta pool? The Super pool?

It's a good discussion in general. Thanks for the numbers.
Everyone here understands why you like exotics. Most here are putting most of their money in exotics. But your presentation for "why" is wrong and encourages wrong thinking.

The addition of extra slots has no impact on the take and the parlay price has almost nothing to do with whether you got good value in your horizontals bets.

What exotics do is open the door to MULTIPLE errors within the same race or race sequence that allow you to more than overcome the larger take.

Error + Error often has greater value than the higher take as in my examples above.

When you understand that much about the math, you will also start creating better tickets because you'll be thinking more clearly about the values, where the EV+ combinations are likely located, and can pull out all the garbage combos most people add in now. Talk about number of slots/take and parlays encourages wrong thinking, especially for weaker players that are going to get buried.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-28-2022 at 11:15 AM.
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Old 10-28-2022, 11:41 AM   #41
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Let's take a fresh approach to this discussion regarding the Win Pool at 16% and the Pick-4 Pool at 24%. Before starting, I acknowledge that 16% < 24% making a single $2.00 Win bet less "costly" than a Pick-4 bet as a single bet, however I would contend that this is not the right comparison to be making.

Suppose we consider any Pick-4 where we invest $2.00 in a Pick-4 coupling four individual horses and $2.00 in a single Win ticket on the first of those four horses. Our cost of these wagers implies that we have $1.52 of post-rake money in the Pick-4 pool and $1.68 post-rake money in the Win pool.

We hit the first leg. Now, we are alive to the next Pick-4 leg however would need to rebet in the next Win pool to continue that thread of activity.

Let's say I make a new $2.00 win bet in Leg 2. Now, I will be paying another $0.32 in rake while paying no more to the Pick-4 pool. Clearly after four legs, I would have paid the same $0.48 in rake to the Pick-4 pool however I would have paid $1.28 to play in the Win pools.

A counter-argument might be that you can take money off the table during the four race Win pool that you cannot do with the equity built in the Pick-4 pool. Fair observation - hedge your Pick-4 equity if that is a concern.

However, one cannot deny that more active cash plays during the Pick-4 pool sequence than a four race Win pool sequence.

Last edited by ScottJ; 10-28-2022 at 11:50 AM.
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Old 10-28-2022, 11:47 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW View Post
Of course it's better for those that have an advantage...that's not what the initial discussion was.

24% takeout P-4 is much worse than a 16% win bet for 99.9% of horseplayers. It's not better cause it's four spots. I think crunk's data shows how really bad it is.

I can't understand how anybody who cares at all about horseplayers or the sport can defend or justify stuff like this.
Arguing against higher take-out pools is fine. However arguing that a 24% Pick-4 wager is a worse proposition than a 16% Win wager does not hold water.

Is a 10% takeout Pick-5 wager better than a 16% takeout Win wager? From a percentage perspective, the answer is yes, however the key is how much variance (or its square root, standard deviation) your bankroll can handle between wins.

As a side note, if a 10% pool is the natural choice for you, my suggestion is that the 0% pool - meaning not playing at all - is probably a better long term choice.
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Old 10-28-2022, 11:55 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o_crunk View Post
It's actually worse than this.

Here's the after takeout ROI by origin of wager for "track X" the last 10 years cumulative. This is real data.

NYRA simulcast:

DD $0.74
EX $0.71
P03 $0.70
P04 $0.56
PLC $0.79
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.67
TRI $0.68
WIN $0.80

The "public" at large (this is everything that isn't the bigger teams who have their own tote codes):

DD $0.72
EX $0.72
P03 $0.72
P04 $0.71
PLC $0.80
SHW $0.80
SPR $0.72
TRI $0.71
WIN $0.80

The "average" player is doing worse than losing takeout in the harder to hit exotics.
Can you share the source of the data used to derive these calculations? If you did calculations on the raw data, could you share those formulae?
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Old 10-28-2022, 12:29 PM   #44
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I am astounded that nobody is reacting to the numbers Ocrunk put up. Every exotic pool showed the public losing 28 to 29% (caws make that expected loss for the aggregate betting public). That includes the 18.5 takeout Daily Double and Exacta pools. It is basically black and white proof of every post I have made about rebates destroying this game of the last number of years. More importantly winning players or even just better than average players are driving their expected loss even higher. The typical novice bettor is going to lose close to 40% in all of these exotic pools because sharp guys(that are not Caw) are either in the positive roi or in the very low negative roi. More upward pressure on the newbies negative roi. So I ask again, how do you build this sport when every potential new customer is losing about 40% of every dollar they bet in any exotic pools. My answer again is you can't. Oh, I forgot it is not a gambling game it is is entertainment.
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Old 10-28-2022, 12:43 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I am astounded that nobody is reacting to the numbers Ocrunk put up. Every exotic pool showed the public losing 28 to 29% (caws make that expected loss for the aggregate betting public). That includes the 18.5 takeout Daily Double and Exacta pools. It is basically black and white proof of every post I have made about rebates destroying this game of the last number of years. More importantly winning players or even just better than average players are driving their expected loss even higher. The typical novice bettor is going to lose close to 40% in all of these exotic pools because sharp guys(that are not Caw) are either in the positive roi or in the very low negative roi. More upward pressure on the newbies negative roi. So I ask again, how do you build this sport when every potential new customer is losing about 40% of every dollar they bet in any exotic pools. My answer again is you can't. Oh, I forgot it is not a gambling game it is is entertainment.
The public always gets destroyed. What gambling game does the public not get destroyed? Slots are high takeout and relentless churn. The lottery is 40% take out, yet people fight to get in line. You wrote "the novice bettor is going to lose close to 40%"...yeah, no bleep. That's why we need more novice bettors in the pools. That's the only way (other than massive rebates) to keep the less-than-sheep in the game.
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