Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-16-2022, 01:53 PM   #436
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
This thread , and the hundreds of my other threads with similar intrest is devoted to CAA
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2022, 02:53 PM   #437
headhawg
crusty old guy
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,763
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
headhawg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2022, 10:18 PM   #438
BarchCapper
Registered User
 
BarchCapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,039
Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg View Post
You DO have the option of doing just like the kid in your meme.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
BarchCapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2022, 11:18 PM   #439
headhawg
crusty old guy
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,763
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
You DO have the option of doing just like the kid in your meme.
I will when he does. And if you're talking about covering my eyes? Nearly impossible as he posts too much of this nonsense. He brags about hundreds of (useless) threads and even necromancies one just to post even more.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln

Last edited by headhawg; 10-16-2022 at 11:25 PM.
headhawg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 08:27 PM   #440
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,587
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922 View Post
I'm trying to figure out why you don't have a large enough sample by now to split it and test more thoroughly on the second sample (instantly) that way. After that, if it comes up positive on the second set of races I can see testing it day by day with real money . This whole thing with back-fitting to a prior sample and then testing it day by day from there, I suppose it's something to keep one busy but chances are that's all it will do. If you take 500 races and find something that shows a profit on 100-200 'playable' races, the chances of that actually winning again on another set of 500 or so races with 100-200 plays is actually very very small. I think most people would be surprised to find that 19 out of 20 times when you have something that 'beats' a 500 race sample with 100-200 playable races you have absolutely nothing but a fit to noise. Then you have people talking about ROIs on trainer angles with 20 plays. Don't get me started. Small sample sizes, the new opium of the people I suppose.
When someone posts this, I know they have absolutely no clue about wagering. Back before the databases and computer players sucked the value out of the game, I routinely would clean up on trainer angles with small sample sizes. "Old school" players were sitting there waiting for the trainer to get a sample of 500 claims when I was betting on the hot trainer and hitting 10 out of 20. Those days and prices are long gone but the key was to find a trainer winning with a move and ride it short term while suckers (like you) were collecting your 1000-horse samples. Ahh, wish there were more guys like you and Formula.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 09:34 PM   #441
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,204
Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
When someone posts this, I know they have absolutely no clue about wagering. Back before the databases and computer players sucked the value out of the game, I routinely would clean up on trainer angles with small sample sizes. "Old school" players were sitting there waiting for the trainer to get a sample of 500 claims when I was betting on the hot trainer and hitting 10 out of 20. Those days and prices are long gone but the key was to find a trainer winning with a move and ride it short term while suckers (like you) were collecting your 1000-horse samples. Ahh, wish there were more guys like you and Formula.
Fwiw in my day (or decade) I did quite well as a full time pro player. There were hot trainers and juice trainers in my day, but I never knew a single professional player who attended daily and made enough money consistently with that type of focus.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 10:15 PM   #442
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922 View Post
Fwiw in my day (or decade) I did quite well as a full time pro player. There were hot trainers and juice trainers in my day, but I never knew a single professional player who attended daily and made enough money consistently with that type of focus.
I've told this story before. Back in day I was sitting with my bookie in a NYC paying off my weekly loss. I was such a loser, he gave me a tip on a Frank Martin horse running that day.. It won, and I made back my weekly loss plus.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 10:17 PM   #443
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
will be right back
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-17-2022 at 10:20 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 10:26 PM   #444
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
will be right back
just wanted to recheck the win pool booking percentage.
fair exacta calculation

Attached Images
File Type: png RESULTS.png (47.4 KB, 3 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-17-2022 at 10:27 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 10:31 PM   #445
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
I've told this story before. Back in day I was sitting with my bookie in a NYC paying off my weekly loss. I was such a loser, he gave me a tip on a Frank Martin horse running that day.. It won, and I made back my weekly loss plus.
Wow, Frank won so few races, that's quite a miracle!
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2022, 11:08 PM   #446
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Wow, Frank won so few races, that's quite a miracle!
Just a word of tribute

Sigmund Sommers owned 40 horses who ran under the stable's green and gold colors. With U.S. Racing Hall of Fame trainer Frank "Pancho" Martin, Sommer enjoyed considerable success that included winning the Display Handicap five times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1978). Horse Racing [ edit]

Sommer's green and gold colors seem to be in most every race. You not only saw his racing colors but with the view across the track, looking north, you saw the North Shore towers he built as the construction contractor.
Of course, there was Sham somewhere in the mix

This was my time..
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-17-2022 at 11:12 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-18-2022, 10:18 PM   #447
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
a few of today's overlays.. they do exist!!

Parx Racing* Race 5
"A" TRACK WIN ODDS $3.40
"B" TRACK WIN ODDS $1.00
WIN POOL TRACK TAKE OUT % 0.150
A WIN % 0.193
B WIN %' 0.425

EXACTA PROBABILITY % 0.1018
MIN $1 EXACTA RETURN $9.83
ACTUAL $1 RETURN $13.70
$1 actual return $1.39

15% overlay min ret $11.30
20% overlay min ret $11.79

FR Deauville* Race 2
"A" TRACK WIN ODDS $9.30
"B" TRACK WIN ODDS $1.40
WIN POOL TRACK TAKE OUT % 0.180
A WIN % 0.080
B WIN %' 0.342

EXACTA PROBABILITY % 0.0296
MIN $1 EXACTA RETURN $33.84
ACTUAL $1 RETURN $34.90
$1 actual return $1.03

15% overlay min ret $38.91
20% overlay min ret $40.60
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-19-2022, 11:56 AM   #448
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
I'm following this today.
HK Happy Valley
races 1 through 6

$1 win bet return $19.10 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.91

$1 win bet return $2.95 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.97

$1 win bet return $2.50 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.46

$1 win bet return $18.55 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.38

$1 win bet return $5.15 my winner/all exacta $1 return $6.63


$1 win bet return $2.60 my winner/all exacta $1 return $3.36

these calculations are based on the final $pools

call these plays my control group.

2 future races left .

This is what I do: coffee:
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-19-2022, 12:26 PM   #449
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41,814
[QUOTE=formula_2002;2836040]I'm following this today.
HK Happy Valley
races 1 through 6

$1 win bet return $19.10 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.91

$1 win bet return $2.95 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.97

$1 win bet return $2.50 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.46

$1 win bet return $18.55 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.38

$1 win bet return $5.15 my winner/all exacta $1 return $6.63


$1 win bet return $2.60 my winner/all exacta $1 return $3.36

these calculations are based on the final $pools

call these plays my control group.

2 future races left .

This is what I do /QUOTE]

here are the final two

$1 win bet return $14.40 my winner/all exacta $1 return $12.86

$1 win bet return $4.05 my winner/all exacta $1 return $4.34

sums
$69.3 vs $71.91
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-19-2022, 01:40 PM   #450
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,562
redboard extraordinaire
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.