Which posts are good/bad on SA Downhill Turf? (Monrovia)

[letswastemoney]

Hi everyone. I was handicapping tomorrow's Monrovia and wanted to know if there's any particular post that is an advantage or a death sentence on downhill turf at SA.

[Uncle Salty]

Based on my numbers, posts 2, 5, and 8 and generally any post past 7 is a disadvantage for the downhill turf. But I only track the results for older claiming/allowance races.

[Overlay]

Data I have shows 4-6 as advantageous, with all the others being less successful and roughly equal.

[cj]

Here is what I have, strictly by ROI:

Runners	Return	ROI		Post
  442		$658.20	74.46%	1
  442		$588.20	66.54%	2
  442		$642.40	72.67%	3
  442		$699.40	79.12%	4
  442		$619.00	70.02%	5
  430		$783.00	91.05%	6
  388		$538.20	69.36%	7
  317		$404.60	63.82%	8
  245		$496.40	101.31%	9
  174		$220.40	63.33%	10
  97		$268.60	138.45%	11
  44		$126.60	143.86%	12
  3		$0.00	0.00%	13
  2		$0.00	0.00%	14

[horses4courses]

Those ROI stats for the SA downhill track display what I have thought for years. Strange to see the results for post 10, though.


Being drawn in a high post position (especially double digits) is actually an advantage - provided the horse has reasonably good early speed to take it on, or near, the lead. The reason for this is that, due to the unusual configuration of the downhill course, the outside actually becomes the inside during the race.

That being said, it is not easy to go wire to wire on this course.
Stalkers tend to do the best when they can run down the leader after turning for home.
Horses for courses angle is very strong, too. False favorites are often those types that have done well recently running 6F at Hollywood.
The Hollywood turf sprint track, and the downhill at SA, are like night and day.

Good luck!

[Quackfan]

In fields of say 10 or more the outside posts have a distinct advantage. Where posts 1 and 2 get the worst of it.

In fields of say 8 or less there really isn't much difference because the way they load them the rail horse is really coming out post 4 or 5.

[cj]

Here is how it looks when posts are grouped together...probably not a fluke.

Rnrs	Return		ROI	Posts
 1768	2588.20		73.20%	1-4	
 1577	2344.80		74.34%	5-8
  565	1112.00		98.41%	9+

[bettheoverlay]

There was a $110 winner Oct 10 from pp11 that kind of skewers the roi.

Of field size 10 + in the last 40 races going back to Jan1, 2011, the most winners (6) came from pp1 and pp9.

pp10 + were a cumlative 6/73 with another $45 dollar bomb from pp12.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bettheoverlay

There was a $110 winner Oct 10 from pp11 that kind of skewers the roi.

Of field size 10 + in the last 40 races going back to Jan1, 2011, the most winners (6) came from pp1 and pp9.

pp10 + were a cumlative 6/73 with another $45 dollar bomb from pp12.

There were no bombs from posts 1-9? These go back several years. For the record, I wouldn't worry much about $45 horses skewing anything. $110 maybe, but certainly not $45.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Those ROI stats for the SA downhill track display what I have thought for years. Strange to see the results for post 10, though.


Being drawn in a high post position (especially double digits) is actually an advantage - provided the horse has reasonably good early speed to take it on, or near, the lead. The reason for this is that, due to the unusual configuration of the downhill course, the outside actually becomes the inside during the race.

That being said, it is not easy to go wire to wire on this course.
Stalkers tend to do the best when they can run down the leader after turning for home.
Horses for courses angle is very strong, too. False favorites are often those types that have done well recently running 6F at Hollywood.
The Hollywood turf sprint track, and the downhill at SA, are like night and day.

Good luck!

I agree with this 100% and it looks like CJ's data backs it up.

[keilan]

I'd be interested to see how much the ROI changes if any when the population is split into two groupings 1) cheaper level horses and 2) higher class level horses.

It's been my experience that early speed is key when racing in the first subset and not as much in the 2nd subset..

It might also be interesting to see stats on the post time favorite and post-position! That might tell you more about post positions.

[Tom]

I'll go against it here and take the
Maybe the and will show the layoff late.

[keilan]

Kinda like #1 Mizdirection

Should be sitting right behind the legitimate pace setters and looks to find racing room down on the rail............ see ya at the windows

[Tom]

Nice hit K!

[keilan]

Thanx Tom, Gomez went outside of the pacesetters instead of going down on the rail but they raced pretty much as I thought. Good thing I didn't play the x's as I would have used only 9 & 10 underneath..nice prices!!