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Old 09-17-2018, 10:12 PM   #16
garyscpa
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Originally Posted by dansan View Post
Hope the DRF does'nt increase the fee for that valuable information
It's got value, but as previously stated by sammy the sage you need context.
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Old 09-17-2018, 10:25 PM   #17
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value

good luck
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Old 09-17-2018, 11:04 PM   #18
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I am sorry that you feel that way, but I didn’t ignore anything because all the input data is available free on the Internet through various sources (NYRA, DRF, EQUIBASE, TRAKUS, etc.); all present bits of free useable data , but you should have the algorithmic software tools from math, science, and statistics with a keen awareness of thoroughbred handicapping concepts plus enough funds, time, and manpower to employ the effort to make a venture like this successful.

The reason I initially posted the formula was to show that it can be done scientifically, but it would be good if the data was given to the horseplayer free and calculated.
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Old 09-17-2018, 11:37 PM   #19
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I am sorry that you feel that way, but I didn’t ignore anything because all the input data is available free on the Internet through various sources (NYRA, DRF, EQUIBASE, TRAKUS, etc.); all present bits of free useable data , but you should have the algorithmic software tools from math, science, and statistics with a keen awareness of thoroughbred handicapping concepts plus enough funds, time, and manpower to employ the effort to make a venture like this successful.

The reason I initially posted the formula was to show that it can be done scientifically, but it would be good if the data was given to the horseplayer free and calculated.
I wasn't asking about all the data...was asking about horses weights prior to the race...

By the way...am looking at weights TOTALLY different light than you and your crew...

..sounds like...ya'll are back figuring weight...which is useless...for my purposes anyways...

Will be if gulfstream does right for the horseplayer's before NYRA..
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:07 AM   #20
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I will respond to you in this way: weight itself is useless, but when converted to mass it becomes one of the most powerful metrics in the calculation of the predictive outcome of a horserace due to the many different performance metrics that can produce of the horse’s historical race performances and its future performance(s).

Anyone who predicts knows that a before and after calculation is needed to provide legitimacy to the predicted outcome.

The following statement from your post: “By the way...am looking at weights TOTALLY different light than you and your crew.” is a head scratcher to me because we are not engaged in head-to-head wagering; we are if we are wagering in the same pool are wagering against many other bettors on-track and off-track.

I wish you much success. whatever method or metric you choose to use.
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:23 AM   #21
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Think Sammy is right about the need not just to have the weight of today’s horse but what was his weight from his previous races as well so you can see patterns of change (or not)...

Sometimes I have thought that the biggest, tallest, most muscular, neck bowing athlete has a good shot based on just being the Alpha male at the time...highest weight in the field might play into that idea...just a thought, no proof.
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:34 AM   #22
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Think Sammy is right about the need not just to have the weight of today’s horse but what was his weight from his previous races as well so you can see patterns of change (or not)...

Sometimes I have thought that the biggest, tallest, most muscular, neck bowing athlete has a good shot based on just being the Alpha male at the time...highest weight in the field might play into that idea...just a thought, no proof.
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:35 AM   #23
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So Cratos...

1st...you said you had gotten all the weights for the horses at Saratoga

2nd..time around....no...I was just showing how it could be done with all the data available.

3rd...Still avoiding a direct answer...hhhhmmmm....look a "vigors the grey's" response...he's on the right path...

Anyways...best of luck to you as well...
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Old 09-18-2018, 11:14 AM   #24
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I made the following statement in post #11 of this thread: “They were all made before and after each race each day; in my post (#4 of this thread) explains the science in a formula.” And again I confirmed in post #20 with the following: “I will respond to you in this way: weight itself is useless, but when converted to mass it becomes one of the most powerful metrics in the calculation of the predictive outcome of a horserace due to the many different performance metrics that can produce of the horse’s historical race performances and its future performance(s).”

This was a simplistic way of stating how to use weight (converted to mass) in the handicapping of horseracing without going into ODE of calculus and the rigors of applied physics.
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Old 09-18-2018, 12:10 PM   #25
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I made the following statement in post #11 of this thread: “They were all made before and after each race each day; in my post (#4 of this thread) explains the science in a formula.” And again I confirmed in post #20 with the following: “I will respond to you in this way: weight itself is useless, but when converted to mass it becomes one of the most powerful metrics in the calculation of the predictive outcome of a horserace due to the many different performance metrics that can produce of the horse’s historical race performances and its future performance(s).”

This was a simplistic way of stating how to use weight (converted to mass) in the handicapping of horseracing without going into ODE of calculus and the rigors of applied physics.
So you use the before-race weight as reported as measured on a scale, then estimate the post-race using your formula, and then use the differential to assess the horse in his next race?
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Old 09-18-2018, 12:23 PM   #26
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So you use the before-race weight as reported as measured on a scale, then estimate the post-race using your formula, and then use the differential to assess the horse in his next race?
Can't be that since very few places actually give you the reported weight before the race.
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Old 09-18-2018, 12:47 PM   #27
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No, CJ's response is correct

Remember the basic physics equation for motion: Force = Mass * Acceleration.

Then (Force/Acceleration)*9.81 = weight

In every horse's PP's or race result chart listed by either Equibase or DRF the variables for determining force and acceleration is always there.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:54 PM   #28
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No, CJ's response is correct

Remember the basic physics equation for motion: Force = Mass * Acceleration.

Then (Force/Acceleration)*9.81 = weight

In every horse's PP's or race result chart listed by either Equibase or DRF the variables for determining force and acceleration is always there.
This is interesting. Would you please post an example from Remington Park - turn theory into reality for us (as the track provides weights)? Thanks.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:59 PM   #29
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This is interesting. Would you please post an example from Remington Park - turn theory into reality for us (as the track provides weights)? Thanks.
Why use weights as per a scale when the ultra-accurate and finely detailed DRF charts/PPs can be used to estimate?
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Old 09-20-2018, 02:30 PM   #30
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Why use weights as per a scale when the ultra-accurate and finely detailed DRF charts/PPs can be used to estimate?
I certainly appreciate your skepticism, but let's give him a chance to prove out his method with a real-world example.
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