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10-19-2018, 12:06 AM
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#46
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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The biggest problem with the automated stuff, in my opinion, is that you don't catch the timing errors and human data entry errors. I process the data each night and have the program generate a list of races that look fishy and should be checked, and quite often I do find problems.
The second part is when actually making the figures. If the variant for a string of races based on my projections looks like this---20, 19, 22, 18, 41, 17---nine times out of 10 the 41 had a problem of some sort. There are times it is just a bad projection but the majority are timing problems.
Here is one example I see several times a week. Equibase has begun incorporating notes into the charts when races are hand timed. They still miss some occasionally, but most are noted. But this is a recent development which I had quite a bit of input in. But, that doesn't really help those using an automated program as it is a text field that needs to be parsed and the comments tend to vary. I know when I see a race like that 41 above it could very well be hand timed and I go read the chart and watch the race to see if fractions are displayed and if they match the chart. Is BRIS or Equibase figure makers doing that? Highly unlikely IMO. And what happens with the race that is a 41? Is it lumped in with the others? Ignored? Neither is going to make a very good figure for the race and it could very well affect all the others too.
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10-19-2018, 12:31 AM
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#47
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Here is a quote from the last one that I find baffling:
Quote:
But in the Equibase ratings, Carrick earned a 103 while Robert Bruce got a much higher 122
...
Siegel said Trackmaster didn't have an Inter-Track Variant for 10 furlongs on the turf at Arlington, and Carrick's Secretariat performance came over a “good” grass course, the only “good” turf race that day at the distance. The turf changed to “firm” by the Arlington Million.
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So a horse ran a slower time on an allegedly faster course (firm vs good) and was given a rating 19 points higher by a computer. How does that make any sense?
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10-19-2018, 01:23 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 919
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Kindly refrain from telling me what or what-not to do. Besides I naturally would take any advice from you with a grain of salt.
ABSOLUTELY NONE my comments reflect a personal insult of any sort.
I’m not sure what you mean by basing my comments on “alleged handicapping superiority”. You seem to have TOTALLY missed the point: I DON”T HANDICAP AT ALL!. The references I mentioned are not my words. They just happened to be quoted from 2 individuals that I personally believe have superior credibility in this game.
I’m also a bit confused by your correlation to my mentioning your name and what that has to do with the strength of my position. (Although let me warn you I did eat my Wheates this morning). Please don’t get carried away with those thoughts of grandeur, because I only inserted your name because of the inference YOU made to my knowledge of applying speed figures.
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you should just live and let live.
mr pittsburgh is from another era.
it's irrelevant.
there is no denying that the odds tell a story, but they are just the same as anything else, they're not always right.
as far as time goes, there is no way it is the be all of it, it's just another factor.
similarly, neither is the tote board.
that you may win using ONLY the tote board is no different to somebody that may win using ONLY time.
i dunno anything about benter, but i am sure he would have people that did time for him, and it would have been a significant part of his models.
and the tote board too.
that puts him, and others like him, above those that just use the board or time.
i think cj has it right, if time does not interest you them keep away from the thread.
personally i think time is a fascinating subject, and the tote board holds no interest for me, primarily because I am better at time than i am at reading tote boards.
one last word....if you know more about time than me, you must be bloody rich!
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10-19-2018, 02:18 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 919
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lansdale
Sorry if this is somewhat off thread topic, but for those who have read Nitro's frequent quotes from Benter's article, it should be obvious that there is absolutely no evidence that Benter is referring to observation or analysis of tote (price) movement immediately preceding a race, which is the method Nitro is touting.
The first Benter quote re 'technical' analysis is a reference to the work of Ziemba (one of Benter's advisors) and Haush on tote analysis, which, though valid, was rendered obsolete by their book, not long after it was published.
The second quote, re gleaning information from the 'public model', his term for what we would call 'the odds' also has nothing to do with tote-watching, as generally understood. It refers to Benter's technique for combining the logs of his projected probabilities with those of the betting public ('the odds') to produce an improved model.
It should be obvious to the most casual reader that Benter employed a fundamental, not a technical model to handicap, and that final time/speed-related factors were among those in his model. In fact, Steve b, who sometimes posts here, was responsible for supplying speed figures to Benter's partner Alan Woods, for a number of years. It would be very interesting to have his comments on this subject in this (or another) thread.
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i don't know anything about benter, other than what alan had told me in passing(nothing of importance), and what is in the public domain.
i also don't know anything about their models, other than alan telling me what % my stuff added to the models(.3 of all form factors).
i also know my stuff was a big part in the models of another syndicate i was involved in, but i am only adept specifically on time stuff, not really anything else.
if nitro thinks the board is the answer, then it's only HIS answer.
it's obviously valid, but he is probably selective in his interpretations.
it would be silly to think that some of those that predominantly use time are not equally selective(and successful).
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10-19-2018, 07:12 AM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuss
Thank you for posting that. People do the sport differently and I respect that. I prefer to do horse racing in a fun and enjoyable manner. Differing opinions are great. But the constant chest thumping and tone of how some other people do horse racing, to me, is not attractive or fun.
I enjoy looking at the PP's and making bets. Thats all I really do.
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^^^^ ^^^^
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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10-19-2018, 05:20 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuss
Thank you for posting that. People do the sport differently and I respect that. I prefer to do horse racing in a fun and enjoyable manner. Differing opinions are great. But the constant chest thumping and tone of how some other people do horse racing, to me, is not attractive or fun.
I enjoy looking at the PP's and making bets. Thats all I really do.
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And you definitely seem like you'd be a fun guy to be at the track with. For all of the online betting these days and the convenience of it, I do miss the old days of everyone hanging out together (at least my group of handicapping friends). Doesn't happen much anymore.
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10-19-2018, 05:51 PM
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#52
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
And you definitely seem like you'd be a fun guy to be at the track with. For all of the online betting these days and the convenience of it, I do miss the old days of everyone hanging out together (at least my group of handicapping friends). Doesn't happen much anymore.
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Oh the stories we could tell, eh fuss?
Just teasing buddy, hope we can do it again some day. Spa is on the agenda next year.
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10-19-2018, 07:55 PM
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#53
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Oh the stories we could tell, eh fuss?
Just teasing buddy, hope we can do it again some day. Spa is on the agenda next year.
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I will pay you to NOT tell a few stories CJ, please!
I enjoy racetracks. I was at Gulfstream this afternoon locking down my 2019 spot. For any Suffolk Downs track rats, I was with Blackie from the Shipwreck...few minutes.
This suite is 50K. About 45K more than I want to spend!
They showed it to me just because I was there.
But I did lock down something nice for the Winter meet. The 3rd floor has had a steak house (Christina Lee) that Gulfstream is converting to a VIP, Banquet space. It's just outside these 50K suites .. and I got something here much cheaper. This will be my Jan, Feb, March spot.
I also wanted to go down and get the scuttle-but on the lawsuit and who/what is feeling it. I picked up the scittish on that.
The Pegasus.. it's such a monstrosity..snapped a couple of pictures trying to show people the scale of this thing.
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10-19-2018, 08:55 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuss
I will pay you to NOT tell a few stories CJ, please!
I enjoy racetracks. I was at Gulfstream this afternoon locking down my 2019 spot. For any Suffolk Downs track rats, I was with Blackie from the Shipwreck...few minutes.
This suite is 50K. About 45K more than I want to spend!
They showed it to me just because I was there.
But I did lock down something nice for the Winter meet. The 3rd floor has had a steak house (Christina Lee) that Gulfstream is converting to a VIP, Banquet space. It's just outside these 50K suites .. and I got something here much cheaper. This will be my Jan, Feb, March spot.
I also wanted to go down and get the scuttle-but on the lawsuit and who/what is feeling it. I picked up the scittish on that.
The Pegasus.. it's such a monstrosity..snapped a couple of pictures trying to show people the scale of this thing.
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Love it!
I visited GP in person just this past month, and I come from a long line of Suffolk rats! I liked it OK. My old man is there all the time and he really misses Christina Lee's.
The head of security at GP is a Boston (Lynn) guy and there's a retired SUF/RKM jock that hung out with us...forget his name at the moment.
The statue is bizarre, and it's just in the middle of the weedy parking lot, not even seemingly in an intentional place.
Last edited by elhelmete; 10-19-2018 at 08:57 PM.
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10-20-2018, 02:04 AM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: R.I.
Posts: 135
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Fuss, Ive stopped by the Shipwreck a few times, forgot about till you mentioned it! Always had fun hanging with you at Saratoga! Next year? I hope!!
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10-20-2018, 11:14 AM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The biggest problem with the automated stuff, in my opinion, is that you don't catch the timing errors and human data entry errors. I process the data each night and have the program generate a list of races that look fishy and should be checked, and quite often I do find problems.
The second part is when actually making the figures. If the variant for a string of races based on my projections looks like this---20, 19, 22, 18, 41, 17---nine times out of 10 the 41 had a problem of some sort. There are times it is just a bad projection but the majority are timing problems.
Here is one example I see several times a week. Equibase has begun incorporating notes into the charts when races are hand timed. They still miss some occasionally, but most are noted. But this is a recent development which I had quite a bit of input in. But, that doesn't really help those using an automated program as it is a text field that needs to be parsed and the comments tend to vary. I know when I see a race like that 41 above it could very well be hand timed and I go read the chart and watch the race to see if fractions are displayed and if they match the chart. Is BRIS or Equibase figure makers doing that? Highly unlikely IMO. And what happens with the race that is a 41? Is it lumped in with the others? Ignored? Neither is going to make a very good figure for the race and it could very well affect all the others too.
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I've never been a big proponent of split variants, and less a fan of projected speed figs. For my money, a maker who decides his number must reflect the horse's "true ability" has overstepped the limitations of time as a measurement of performance. Just feed it to me straight , and let me come to grips with (even glaring) outliers.
But your post, in a simple, easily understood manner, lays out a great case for such adjustments.
Last edited by mountainman; 10-20-2018 at 11:18 AM.
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10-20-2018, 03:58 PM
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#57
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,955
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Just read the last one, BRIS and TM - they actually seem proud that their numbers are garbage and they do nothing to ensure they are any good. Just let the computer roll.
DRF SR+TV is better than those two.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-20-2018, 08:55 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
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turf speed rating
does my body really trust turf speed figures? I don't. I don't care who is making them they are not trust worthy. Horses can get more bad trips in route turf races that effect their speed figures. I tend to use class more in my handicapping than speed in turf races.
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10-20-2018, 09:37 PM
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#59
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,955
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I have no use for turf speed figures. I use class and third fractions. And riders. And routes only - turf sprints are for people who want to shoot themselves and can't find a gun. And overall, turf these days is far less attractive than it used to be because it gets overused. Used to be we had fewer turf races and only the better horses ran on it. Now, they put any crap on the grass. I used to love NYRA turf races - today, avoid it like the plague.
Trouble with figs on turf or dirt is that people mistake bad horses for bad figures. Most horse are crap, really. Can't run two in a row and need lots of time off. Add to that that we have crappy races being written at most tracks......you have 30 reasons why a horse is a POS and everyone blames the one good thing about him - that lone fig he ran on drugs one day.
When a horse hasn't run in over 90 days, how can you have any faith in its fitness? I assume he could not stand up in his stall for 60 of them.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-21-2018, 12:24 AM
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#60
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
I've never been a big proponent of split variants, and less a fan of projected speed figs. For my money, a maker who decides his number must reflect the horse's "true ability" has overstepped the limitations of time as a measurement of performance. Just feed it to me straight , and let me come to grips with (even glaring) outliers.
But your post, in a simple, easily understood manner, lays out a great case for such adjustments.
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Thanks. I really don't like to break figures out from the others. I do my darnedest to figure out why there is a variance before doing so.
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