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01-15-2013, 01:46 PM
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#61
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
You have to hate tearing up tickets with a passion unmatched by any other passion in your life. You have be willing to do what it takes to avoid doing that. a 5/1 shot that you thought was a good bet because you though it had a 25% chance of winning was bad bet because it lost. That is where many people lose thier way. There is no such thing as a good bet that lost. If you don't think your horse has a 100% chance of winning when you bet it assuming the jockey don't fall off, pass the race. You are going to be wrong some of the time, of course, but not as often as you would be if start trying guess what % a horse has of winning. That is an impossible task and people who tell you otherwise are trying to sell you something or have been brainwashed by someone who is. You can set odds limits on how high or low the odds may go if you wish, but you got to think you have the winner regardless of the odds. Sometime you may get down to two horses and you can't seperate them. If you are absolutely sure it is going to be a dead heat, then you might dutch them if the odds are right which they seldom are. Notice I said dutch, not box in the exacta. Picking a horse to run second is not the same as picking the second most likely horse to win.
This is probably not what you are looking for, but it is what I believe is the one universal truth betting of the races. Play the %s is for blackjack players, not horse players.
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This is the absolute truth to losing at the races, not winning.
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01-15-2013, 01:48 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
If you are tearing up very many of them...then you are right.
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I probably tear up more tickets than anyone else here...
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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01-15-2013, 02:01 PM
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#63
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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I fully expect to lose at 10-12% of all my bets. I just do not which ones going in. You learn to to live with it.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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01-15-2013, 02:04 PM
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#64
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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If I bet a 20-1 shot, and he gets nosed on the line, I know it was a good bet. If bet a 1-5 shot that gets put up via DQ because the winner fouled the 3rd place horse, I know it was a bad bet.
Just like in golf, where a drive might hit a tree and bounce in the middle, or in tennis where a framed shot might drop in like a perfect lob, the result does not always tell the whole story.
If you make the majority of your bets good ones you will be a winner.
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01-15-2013, 02:05 PM
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#65
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
I fully expect to lose at 10-12% of all my bets. I just do not which ones going in. You learn to to live with it.
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I'm going to assume that means "win" 10-12%.
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01-15-2013, 02:13 PM
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#66
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Okay, Al. You are killing me here...
What is it that I said that was so important if it wasn't that you must have a value component?
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01-15-2013, 02:30 PM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Okay, Al. You are killing me here...
What is it that I said that was so important if it wasn't that you must have a value component?
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Probably that we should look at the old game with a new set of eyes... 
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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01-15-2013, 02:35 PM
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#68
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Probably that we should look at the old game with a new set of eyes... |
No way in hell I'm starting over now! That was painful.
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01-15-2013, 02:37 PM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Come on, Al...
The suspense is killing us...
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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01-15-2013, 02:44 PM
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#70
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
If I bet a 20-1 shot, and he gets nosed on the line, I know it was a good bet. If bet a 1-5 shot that gets put up via DQ because the winner fouled the 3rd place horse, I know it was a bad bet.
Just like in golf, where a drive might hit a tree and bounce in the middle, or in tennis where a framed shot might drop in like a perfect lob, the result does not always tell the whole story.
If you make the majority of your bets good ones you will be a winner.
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I had a 3 length winner 22/1 shot with a 20 bet on it DQed because it came in on the other horse at the top of the stretch. No doubt it was coming down. It was one of those second time starters that had been well bet in it first start as a 2 yo and ran near the back of the pack and layed off for 9 months with no works being trained by trainer that had history of winning at prices without works after long layoffs . I figured it had bucked its shins and that was the reason for the layoff. The track was Sam Houston and it happened in 2001. I sure it was going to win when I bet it despite the odds. I put this into the "jockey fell off or whatever" type loser. I would and do make the same kind of bets today. I knew why the odds were high and I was sure the horse was going win. I forget most of the winners, but the good ones that got away haunt me forever. I post this to show that not every "sure" thing wins and that not every "sure" thing goes off at low odds and because I re-lived it in a dream/nightmare last night.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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01-15-2013, 03:07 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
OK, let's try a game here. There is only one absolute truth for profitability in regards to the thoroughbred races as far as I know. Mention it here, and I'll PM you. If I don't respond it means you didn't get. Mention another truth that I can agree with and I'll reply. Dave can't play this game because we've talked about it. Here's a hint, it's mentioned in Dave's Basics of Winning class. I was surprised that we came to the same conclusion independent of each other when I took his class. So post away, and I PM you if you are right, or reply if I think you found another one.
Good Luck
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Contender selection.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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01-15-2013, 03:55 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
If you don't think your horse has a 100% chance of winning when you bet it assuming the jockey don't fall off, pass the race. You are going to be wrong some of the time, of course, but not as often as you would be if start trying guess what % a horse has of winning. That is an impossible task and people who tell you otherwise are trying to sell you something or have been brainwashed by someone who is. You can set odds limits on how high or low the odds may go if you wish, but you got to think you have the winner regardless of the odds.
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When you are "setting odds limits" you are guessing what Percentage a horse has of winning. That's all odds are is a percentage. If you think 2 horses each have an equal chance of winning, then you are setting a percentage: 50%. Maybe you are hung up on this percentage thing. If you are stating the minimum odds you will accept then you are making a percentage whether you realize it or not.
By the way, I don't believe this double talk about you thinking every horse
you bet has a 100% chance of winning. This makes you seem very naive, and I don't think you are naive. Usually people like you that I have known
are very good at picking winners. They have to be, or they would be chewed up by the track and spit out.
The reason many odds line guys don't make it is obvious, they have too many false overlays. This begs the question: How many false Overlays
can you have and still be a winner? And better yet, lets identify some
of these false contenders and eliminate them. I guess we are all working on that one.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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01-15-2013, 04:30 PM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,550
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The truth is having the confidence in your selections and betting within your planned budget. This is what we do the first time around and when it comes back well, we are hooked on.
A confession: I have never had to tear up a single ticket in my life yet. Can anyone guess the (pathetic) reason?
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01-15-2013, 04:33 PM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iceknight
A confession: I have never had to tear up a single ticket in my life yet. Can anyone guess the (pathetic) reason?
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You bet on line.
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01-15-2013, 04:35 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 146
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A confession: I have never had to tear up a single ticket in my life yet. Can anyone guess the (pathetic) reason?[/QUOTE]
My guess would be your a computer jockey that dont attend live racing and make all your bets on a pc or electronic device
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