Handicapping off the will pay prices

[Longshot6977]

Originally Posted by Bogo

These ex payouts obviously change as post nears. Do you look at the ex matrix early or late?

Early. Then watch what happens later near post time if the EX payouts stay near the same or get even more action. I usually watch it every flash. My pick may change thruout the betting if I see something 'better' being bet down in the exactas after every flash. Ex. I may like the 5 horse at 7-1, but see the 7 horse is being bet down in the exactas out of proportion for his current odds. The 7 horse may be like 8-1 or 10-1, so I may bet both the 5 and 7 to win and place. Try it on paper until you get used to the action.

I also tried Al Illich's 'secret DD play' as mentioned above (I have his old paperback book) and it worked out nicely for a while. Like everyone else, I still dabble with it now and then, but like the EX action better.

[crestridge]

NorCal has a program that does the calculations for you, may wish to check it out, the trainer moves program.

[westernmassbob]

I never understood why anyone would buy into a professional handicappers picks or those on track tip sheets that have the plays made even before seeing the horses before each race. Furthermore most of these on track handicappers never deviate from their original selections which are always made well before the card starts. To me that is mind boggling. Picking horses purely based on PP’s and breeding is not very smart. I get some bets you have to pick in advance but not adjusting original picks on the fly because seeing the fitness of the horse on track is preposterous l

[iamt]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

I never understood why anyone would buy into a professional handicappers picks or those on track tip sheets that have the plays made even before seeing the horses before each race. Furthermore most of these on track handicappers never deviate from their original selections which are always made well before the card starts. To me that is mind boggling. Picking horses purely based on PP’s and breeding is not very smart. I get some bets you have to pick in advance but not adjusting original picks on the fly because seeing the fitness of the horse on track is preposterous l

Isn't someone using the Double Will Pays relying on information that is made prior to the race and without knowing anything about the fitness etc of a runner?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

I never understood why anyone would buy into a professional handicappers picks or those on track tip sheets that have the plays made even before seeing the horses before each race. Furthermore most of these on track handicappers never deviate from their original selections which are always made well before the card starts. To me that is mind boggling. Picking horses purely based on PP’s and breeding is not very smart. I get some bets you have to pick in advance but not adjusting original picks on the fly because seeing the fitness of the horse on track is preposterous l

Most people don't know enough about physicality to have it be useful to look at the horses. I am of the opinion that a light knowledge of physicality is pretty dangerous to the wallet.

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by iamt

Isn't someone using the Double Will Pays relying on information that is made prior to the race and without knowing anything about the fitness etc of a runner?

Yes I already stated that some bets you can’t help but to play in advance of knowing what a horse looks like on track. Just because some of us like to handicap off the will pays doesn’t mean we don’t adjust things as the races go along. Case in point I used a DD will pay to stand up a horse at Churchill over a week ago. The horse on track was all sweaty and lathered up. Adjustements were made and even though I didn’t hit that double I did far better with my other bets.

[Stevecsd2]

NorCalGreg has the Trainer Moves software that can do the DD second leg calculations. You do have to manually enter the dollar amounts, but it calculates the relative numbers for each horse.


**Not affiliated with Greg, other than having purchased some of his software products.

[Trackjudge]

Gary Pizzagati's tote program "At The Races" reads the double pools and creates a "look back line" which is presented with the tote data for the second half of the double. It is remarkably accurate at predicting the final win pool percentage for the horses in the second half.


If you are worried by the odds crashing on your horse at the last flash, have a look at his work.


You can see it on Ken Massa's board here:


https://htr2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

Does anyone do this with regular success ? I bring this up because I have been watching Lone Star this evening and someone made a very large daily double bet and basically hid the win odds in the first leg. Race 4. Mucho Bling went off 7-1(m/l 5-1) wins race......Race 5 double will pay with the 8 horse 18.40. The next price from there is 103.00 in a 10 horse field. The 8 horse m/l is 4-1. Major tell sign and at the very least suspicious. Will see what the outcome is....

I use 'reading the tote' as a tool. There have been instances where a will pay is a "JDLR"....Just Doesn't Look Right....And I'll make an additional saver play, just to cover my(rear) in case there is something there.