The Ultimate Odds Line

[lagavulin62]

This looks really good. I am going to utilize it this weekend. I do have one question about the brisnet numbers. I am knew to brisnet so on your column “early pace, last race” are you using E1 or E2? Thanks.

[Speed Figure]

In sprints it's E1, in routes it's E2.

[lagavulin62]

Thanks

[Tom]

This will explain a lot of the BRIS Ultimate PPs.
Glad you are interested and good luck.

Early Pace Last Race: The early pace rating earned by each horse in its last start, regardless of distance or surface. If the last
race was a sprint, the number will be the E2 pace rating and if it was a route, it will be the El pace rating.

[lagavulin62]

Thanks Tom for clarifying with the link. I had actually read that and was a little confused at first.

As I have never purchased brisnet pp’s, can I purchase the ultimate download in pdf like with DRF? The site is not clear on formats, at least not for non members as I have not joined yet.

Thanks again and sorry for all the questions.

[Tom]

Yes, go to the PPs tab, and the first option is the Ultimate PPs.

Feel free to ask questions, and good luck.

[Aerocraft67]

I've considered using Prime Power or its cousin on TwinSpires, Profit Line, as an alternative morning line. The primary appeal of these vs. the track's own ML is a consistent methodology across tracks, and a more forthright reckoning of price disparity and overwhelming favorites. The downside is giving up the linemakers' particular insights into the home track.

Accuracy certainly helps, but I'm more about consistency here. That said, it sounds like you guys are having some success using the scores as proper value lines.

Do you see BRIS ratings, particularly Prime Power, as more of a value line or a morning line? Is it more predictive of final odds or final outcomes? Obviously the latter would be ideal, but I'd be happy with the former.

Do you see the TwinSpires Profit Line sufficiently similar to BRIS Prime Power to use interchangeably? I assume the methods are related. Of course PL has the advantage of being expressed as odds already.

If I'm just trying to get a decent estimate of final odds, even just ordinal rank with a little gap analysis, is PP or PL any better than ML?

I'm also assuming that PP and PL are more automated than ML. This makes PP and PL more akin to modern algorithms driving handle and odds—even if they're not nearly as sophisticated—than the presumably more subjective judgements of individual linemakers.

But that's a question for another thread—do linemakers factor the overwhelming influence of automated modeling and wagering on final odds, or is it still more of a "pencil and paper" type endeavor?

[Tom]

I can't comment on PL as I don't use it, but the Sartin guys over at Pace and Cap use both PP and PL.

I am working on the idea of making a line totally from PP and have already set up some acceptable odds for each PP rank, ie, #1 can be played at 8-5, # 4 needs min 6-1.....like that.

I'm making a spreadsheet for the PP line making and will post it when I get it finished.

[douglasw32]

Thanks for sharing this ! (Been gone since the beginning of the pandemic)
Glad to be back.

[lagavulin62]

Tom, I actually won on a 9-1 horse a few weeks ago. I wrote a nice 3 paragraph post because I wanted to share but unfortunately just before posting my tablet got a hiccup and erased my post. Lol. Totally pissed me off as you can imagine and I could never do just justice to the original with a rewrite, esp right after it happened. So here is a summary as best I can remember.

Basically I did a one race test(2 dollar win bet) on a turf race. The horse I selected was the 3rd selection based on the formula. The formula odds were I believe 5-1 but ml was around 8-1. This was a first time turfer but breeding said he would be good. Also on dirt he had done well on the distance w same class as the race. So, just before post he even got to 14-1. Long story short he wins. Lead from the 1st call and won by I think 2 1/2 lengths. Final odds at payout were 8.5/1. I know its just one race but I got to the track late because they started early for some reason. I will link the charts as soon as I get home.

[lagavulin62]

Ok as promised, for the above race details checkout the charts for Sam Houston race 6, April 9, Witt’s Taquito. After double checking the ML was actually 12-1. So the formula finding this at 5-1 was really good. Again this was a turf race at 1 mile. Allowance N1x or N2L.

[jim michalak]

tom:are early and late pace no longer factors? or is the scoring system the same for both of them as before? thanks.

[Tom]

I cut back after Aqu got running because the results showed EP and LP were not as important as PP,ACL and SLR, so it was quicker to just focus on those three.

Now that Bel is back, I will re-evaluate and maybe switch back, but either way is viable. I'm looking at other tracks now to0, CD, Parx, and both look promising with just the three factors.

[FocusWiz]

Originally Posted by Tom

So named because it uses the BRIS Ultimate PPs A semi-automatic method that creates a Power Number and an odds line, pre-calculated for you, based on the total score each horse gets. You don't even need to rate all the horses, just one if you loke, to see what odds it might get,

All is explained in the attached PDF. The idea came from discussing handicapping with Dave Schwartz and his Figuring Out What Wins seminar.

I have read your posts for years, agreed with many and disagreed with many, but usually learned a bit along the way.

I have to take a moment to thank you for the detailed document you shared.

I have been reviewing your technique for a couple of weeks and believe that it does what you say it will. It doesn't try to finely predict how many noses between the first and second finisher, but rather globally identifies some potential contenders. It is also easily tailored to the information you have available and the weights you want to assign to them.

I was getting a bit annoyed that it sometime picked odds-on favorites and other times include 70-1 shots. The attached pick convinced me that there is something to the simple logic it uses.

[Tom]

Thanks for the kind words, hope you had it.
I'm glad a few others have found it useful, too.

I keep a model of the results to make I pick up on changes, and some interesting things pop up.

I'll post a summary update later this week. I have a lt more turf races now, and some patterns are coming to light.