Two-year old paddock handicapping

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by davew

I like looking at muscling in hindquarters and horse attitude/professionalism

I consider betting action -> will-pays and early action
I watch previous races if they have them



the following has some 'handicapping' ideas (a podcast with nothing to see)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYnbyKTO-3c

Muscling in the hind quarters is far more important in sprinters.

[cratman]

Any thoughts or recommendations for workout reports?

Thanks

[ElKabong]

It's been years since I've bet on a race of any kind, maybe early 2019. But I used to bet fairly heavy, and almost solely on physicality after 2002.

2yos up to the fall, look for a controlled eagerness. Skip the breeding and training angles because (a) trainers adept with young horses are given better stock normally, (b) if you bypass a live horse with a lesser trainer you'll miss a big price. Controlled eagerness, well behaved, good relationshipwith the jock once mounted.

In the fall and beyond... ranchwest has it right on muscling. Things start to fall in place in regards to physicality handicapping then. My biggest scores it seemed were 3yo msw, nix where horses with poor form or FTS in the late winter, early spring.

I don't know how guys make money nowadays handicapping via anything but physicality. If you get good in the paddock looking at horses, you'll never have a losing year if you have the discipline to pass on a lot of races. Hard work to get to where you're effective at it, but you'll make money once you've got it down

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

I don't know how guys make money nowadays handicapping via anything but physicality. If you get good in the paddock looking at horses, you'll never have a losing year if you have the discipline to pass on a lot of races. Hard work to get to where you're effective at it, but you'll make money once you've got it down

I very very rarely make a bet on physicality, but I'm certain I'm profitable over the long term on those bets. I just have no confidence I can expand or sustain that. I think I'd have to go to the track every single, take notes, and test the possible plays for at least a year before I'd have any faith in it.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

It's been years since I've bet on a race of any kind, maybe early 2019. But I used to bet fairly heavy, and almost solely on physicality after 2002.

2yos up to the fall, look for a controlled eagerness. Skip the breeding and training angles because (a) trainers adept with young horses are given better stock normally, (b) if you bypass a live horse with a lesser trainer you'll miss a big price. Controlled eagerness, well behaved, good relationshipwith the jock once mounted.

In the fall and beyond... ranchwest has it right on muscling. Things start to fall in place in regards to physicality handicapping then. My biggest scores it seemed were 3yo msw, nix where horses with poor form or FTS in the late winter, early spring.

I don't know how guys make money nowadays handicapping via anything but physicality. If you get good in the paddock looking at horses, you'll never have a losing year if you have the discipline to pass on a lot of races. Hard work to get to where you're effective at it, but you'll make money once you've got it down

I sure learned a lot about physicality from you. I was able to hit some nice supers off of what I learned.

Guys, this guy is the real deal.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I sure learned a lot about physicality from you. I was able to hit some nice supers off of what I learned.

Guys, this guy is the real deal.

Good to hear you're still doing well at it! We can both thank SoCalFan, she taught me via long distance the basics and beyond on how to spot live or sore horses beyond the obvious.

I play golf every weekday morning now. Not sure which is more difficult and/ or frustrating. Betting or golf. The pursuit is always the fun part...

Continued success to you

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

Good to hear you're still doing well at it! We can both thank SoCalFan, she taught me via long distance the basics and beyond on how to spot live or sore horses beyond the obvious.

I play golf every weekday morning now. Not sure which is more difficult and/ or frustrating. Betting or golf. The pursuit is always the fun part...

Continued success to you

SoCalFan had a lot to share.

With golf, one good shot can bring one back. With betting, less than a profit is still discouraging, no matter how smart a move.

I just had quadruple bypass surgery. No golf for a while.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

I play golf every weekday morning now. Not sure which is more difficult and/ or frustrating. Betting or golf. The pursuit is always the fun part...

Golf became much less difficult/frustrating for me and much better exercise when I set the goal as maximizing my strokes per dollar spent without delaying my playing partners to the point of their frustration!

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

SoCalFan had a lot to share.

With golf, one good shot can bring one back. With betting, less than a profit is still discouraging, no matter how smart a move.

I just had quadruple bypass surgery. No golf for a while.

Dang Richard, you doing OK?