whales?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

imo almost everything said here and about whales is wrong.

the blind leading the blind.

Calling YOUR bluff here. If you were so certain, you wouldn't have written IMO

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Intuitively, what you write above doesn't make a lot of sense to me (how this would be such a great advantage).

But I'll let others (including you) explain it to me...why would this be such a big edge...knowing whether a 1/5 shot is paying 2.40-2.70?

you should know better than anyone since you are betting on value. you make your bets ahead of time based on a certain price for arguments sake lets call it 3-1. the race goes off and the horse drops to 2-1. you no longer have value. a computer guy that has a consul directly hooked up to the tote can guarantee he gets the 3-1 every single time, you simply can't do that.

there are plenty of other things that they can do that you can't, but i don't want to get into that now. what i can tell you is i have friends that are general managers at race tracks that think this direct tote is very unfair to a regular everyday bettor like us.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

a computer guy that has a consul directly hooked up to the tote can guarantee he gets the 3-1 every single time, you simply can't do that.

No he can't.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...

If you think there's a natural arbitrage with a near 20% takeout, you're mistaken. No arb unless you are TOSSING horses, and that requires an opinion, and that requires you have to be right MOST of the time.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Calling YOUR bluff here. If you were so certain, you wouldn't have written IMO

touche, but I was simply being overly courteous. my error.

[EasyGoer89]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...

The 'cut' doesn't come from you because many huge whales actually LOSE. They're essentially betting 'bad' on purpose to increase handle, but their bad betting pads the pools for the good gamblers.

Also, anyone can get access if they want, money talks, if you put up a message here or anywhere that said 'I bet 10 mil a year and have no current ADW, contact me' someone would contact you.

If you don't bet millions than why would you be against the million dollar and up bettor getting a better deal? I mean, you'd want that deal if you were a 10 mil guy, right?

[thaskalos]

The informed opinion seems to be that these "Whales" swim at every track and every mutuel pool...trying to snuff out whatever value the tote board has to offer. And yet...I was playing Thistledown's 2nd race today, where the outcome was 1-6...in a 7-horse field. The 1-horse went off at odds of 5-2...and the 6 went off at odds of 5-1. The 1-6 exacta paid $56.60 for $2...and it would have paid the exact same price if the race outcome was REVERSED. How could these sophisticated betting outfits allow this 1-6 exacta combination to pay the outrageous price that it did? Did several "Whales" get their SIGNALS crossed in this race?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

No he can't.

that's where you have a misunderstanding. the guy with the consul has the last view of the pool, you don't. cancelling bets in this game is as much a part of betting as placing bets now. he can cancel a $500 or $600 bet and know he's getting 3-1 for whatever he has left in the pool. you place your bet at 3-1 before the race and often times see the odds change on the first flash after the break to something lower and you now don't have value.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the guy with the consul has the last view of the pool, you don't.

He may or he may not. And that "last view" is NOT what is going to be there after the race goes off. It may change...AGAIN...

One of us is missing something.

Once the gates open, betting stops (or it's supposed to)....BUT...there is a lot of money unaccounted for in the pools still...and that "last view" the "whale" got before the gates opened (which may or MAY NOT be different than my last view...we're talking a matter of seconds here), is not the FINAL TOTAL of all the money still waiting to come into the pools.

So really, how big of an advantage does the "last view," which isn't actually the LAST VIEW, bring to the whale?

[AltonKelsey]

Even if , in theory, there could be all this last view cancelling going on, there is ZERO evidence that it is.

At a large track , you would have to cancel thousands, and eventually it would be noticed.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

He may or he may not. And that "last view" is NOT what is going to be there after the race goes off. It may change...AGAIN...

One of us is missing something.

Once the gates open, betting stops (or it's supposed to)....BUT...there is a lot of money unaccounted for in the pools still...and that "last view" the "whale" got before the gates opened (which may or MAY NOT be different than my last view...we're talking a matter of seconds here), is not the FINAL TOTAL of all the money still waiting to come into the pools.

So really, how big of an advantage does the "last view," which isn't actually the LAST VIEW, bring to the whale?

i am not going to even discuss any possible after the bell action. but anything that comes in late for any reason other than an after the bell bet should come out in the wash in the long run.

[lamboguy]

further more on this subject. the takeout in this game is roughly 7%-9% plus 5% breakage. the guys that sit behind consuls and bet these things have to overcome that chop. they all claim they don't handicap. they all claim they make money at this and probably do. they have to make up the percentages against them somehow. and that somehow is by getting a big edge with their direct access.

on a caveat, there are some computer players that do not play with direct access and i am not talking about those guys. their might be a handful of guys that i am referring to that have this big edge as far as i know, and they aren't letting any new faces into the party.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races by other means.

When you can finally acknowledge that horses are just flesh and blood and not machines, you’ll be able to rationalize that any so-called pace scenario is something subjectively conjured up based on some past performances. It also assumes that every entry in a race is trying to win and will run as its previously demonstrated.

Of course, Outsiders who aren’t privy to a horse’s immediate condition and temperament will always claim foul when some big favorite fails miserably, or some long-shot lights up the tote board. They have no idea why a horse is even entered in the race! Is it trying to actually Win? Is it a workout for a future event? Is it an experiment at a new distance or racing surface, or with a change in equipment?

The handicapper is literally handicapped because in spite of all the information available there are still some important unknowns that are generally taken for granted. Those in the know on the other hand may have the current information necessary to take advantage of certain situations and can make their (possibly larger) wager with less foreseeable risk.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

When you can finally acknowledge that horses are just flesh and blood and not machines, you’ll be able to rationalize that any so-called pace scenario is something subjectively conjured up based on some past performances. It also assumes that every entry in a race is trying to win and will run as its previously demonstrated.

But all of the above can be overcome, even if you treat horses as machines and only use cold hard numbers in your handicapping. What you say might be true, but it still isn't a barrier to success treating it as such.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

it's not gaming the system. It's being smarter than you.

Why shouldn't brains and innovation be rewarded? Why should it be penalized?

Plenty of people who SPEND MORE in all sorts of endeavors GET BETTER DEALS.

If you were willing to wager millions, I'm sure you could get the same setup. But you're not, so you don't.

Just like if you're willing to buy in bulk, you get better prices at most all vendors.

If you trade more at a brokerage firm, you can get lower commissions. And if you trade a ton, you can get your computer moved close to the exchange for the ability to see prices nanoseconds faster than the average schmo sitting at home on E-trade.

There is no difference...and why should there be? Why shouldn't people willing to put MILLIONS into the pools annually get a better deal than the $2 bettor?

I personally don't have a problem with bigger betters getting better deals. It is the ramifications of what there better deals do to the public. If the pools were ever growing, I would say, great, survival of the fittest. But that is not what is happening. Perception of after the bell betting and this being an insiders game drive people away from the sport. The masses lose 20, 30 or even 40% of the dollar because the prices on many of their winners are driven aritificially low by whales/sharps driving the prices to below break even, while getting fat rebates. Yes that does mean that some of their horses pay more, but most of those horses lose.............. That is not a model that can work long term. That is why horse racing keeps going nowhere and has nowhere to go.

Let's say you are Joe fan and you lose 30% of every dollar you bet(which I am sure is pretty typical). Every day you come to the races you bet on average $300 and you go twice a week. That is $180 a week average loss, or over $9000 a year. That is a very expensive hobby .Doesn't take very long to realize this party isn't for you.