Are These Beyer Figures Correct?

[traynor]

Originally Posted by highnote

Totally agree -- with a couple of caveats. If you're a casual player then using speed figures made by others is better than nothing, but if you're a serious player then you probably want to make them yourself. But there is probably a point where the super serious or professional player uses a combination of their own figures and figures made by others.

The professional player that uses computer assisted wagering probably has an automated system to generate figures and the professional probably also buys certain data from various services -- some of those services might include speed figures or daily variants.

I think the super serious or professional bettors differ from the recreational bettors so much that any service available to the general public (or even a "select clientele" subset of the general public) would be dismissed as useless. The logic is simple--any figures (of whatever kind) good enough to be used in serious, professional level wagering would not be sold. They would be used by the developers for their own serious, professional level wagering.

The serious, professional level bettors stay that way by developing their own proprietary figures, algorithms, strategies, tactics, and software applications. They don't really care what the rookies and wannabes are doing, saying, thinking, or using. They only care what the handful of other serious, professional level bettors are doing, saying, thinking, or using because that handful of others is the only real competition.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I think this entire thread (and the one about the Derby fig) is testament to why people should make their own figs.
You know exactly what went into every number, and why.
You also know which races to re-visit in order to verify a number.
Excellent par times are available for purchase and that's all you need to get going.

It's time consuming, esp if you play multiple tracks, but you gain an intimate knowledge of what's going on at your track.

Following a circuit day to day & track to track is the best education a player can get...all the better if you make your own figs for that circuit, too.

Absolutely. Unless you go through the steps of doing it all yourself, you will never really learn what you need to know. Not that you will learn everything, but you will learn to know what you need to know--what knowledge, information, or whatever you lack that would enable you to do what you want to do.

Way too many seem willing to use the information, services, data, figures, strategies, or software applications of others with little or no real knowledge of what those works of others are really doing. Perhaps that is to avoid the cognitive dissonance of losing by blaming the poor results on some other (external, uncontrollable, unknowable, whatever) factors.

None of which means the average bettor should not use figures, services, or software apps developed by others. However, if one aspires to be mroe than average, a bit more effort may be needed to keep up.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by Tom

Is Logic Dictates still around?
I think they did trip notes for NYRA?

Yes they are.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think the super serious or professional bettors differ from the recreational bettors so much that any service available to the general public (or even a "select clientele" subset of the general public) would be dismissed as useless. The logic is simple--any figures (of whatever kind) good enough to be used in serious, professional level wagering would not be sold. They would be used by the developers for their own serious, professional level wagering.

The serious, professional level bettors stay that way by developing their own proprietary figures, algorithms, strategies, tactics, and software applications. They don't really care what the rookies and wannabes are doing, saying, thinking, or using. They only care what the handful of other serious, professional level bettors are doing, saying, thinking, or using because that handful of others is the only real competition.

Widely available figures could be used by syndicates as indicators for market sentiment. They might use figures to bet against rather than to bet with.

For example, a horse that gets a big last race Beyer will probably take a lot of action. Professional teams can use this knowledge to their advantage and take account of it (quantify it) in their models. The average punter could have a difficult time quantifying the negative pari-mutuel value of a big Beyer, if they even consider its negative value.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by traynor

Am I missing something here, or do I have you confused with someone else on this forum? I seem to recall a fairly recent post in which you stated that your current wagers were a small fraction of what they had been previously, and you were doing so poorly you were considering a complete cessation of wagering. Was that you or someone else?

If I have you mixed up with some other poster, please accept my apology in advance. My impression (possibly erroneous) is that you were not doing very well at all in the profit department.

No, it was me.
Not doing badly at all profit-wise, but getting very tired of small fields and low odds. I don't bet nearly what I used to. I am getting a lot more action now that the summer tracks are running. I do not play Aqueduct inner, GP, SA, FG.......gave up on Tampa last year. Monday was a banner day - more plays Monday than all of February!

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by highnote

The final time of a race is function of pace.

Run too fast early in the race then the final time will suffer.

Run too slow early in the race then the final time will suffer.

In general, a horse that runs an evenly paced race (that is, not too fast or slow for his ability) will produce the best final race time for that given horse.

You have stated in a very eloquent what I have been saying; apparently we don't differ at all

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

Is Logic Dictates still around?
I think they did trip notes for NYRA?

Yes. He's still around.

[Moto Pete]

I'm in a similar situation Tom. My play dropped so much I gave up my subscription to HTR. Can't justify the cost when you're playing so sparingly. My bottom line isn't bad either but it's frustrating and a huge strain on the brain trying to find decent races to play. Tampa was always my favorite winter track but in 2012-13 I bet half of what I bet the year before and this year I bet half of what I did last year. Small fields are a part of it, but the dirty trainers are too. Tampa did the right thing by banning 2 of them but 1 guy can still ruin a lot of races. I also don't play AQU Inner and I look to turf races mostly at GP. With my closers mentality I'll be looking at Woodbine primarily this summer.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by highnote

Widely available figures could be used by syndicates as indicators for market sentiment. They might use figures to bet against rather than to bet with.

For example, a horse that gets a big last race Beyer will probably take a lot of action. Professional teams can use this knowledge to their advantage and take account of it (quantify it) in their models. The average punter could have a difficult time quantifying the negative pari-mutuel value of a big Beyer, if they even consider its negative value.

I spend more time looking for bad figures to bet against than good figures to bet on. It's rare than you find a standout figure horse (where the figure is an accurate representation of the performance) that pays a good price. Everyone has figures now. If the horse is a legitimate standout all figure sources will generally agree even if the margin varies a bit because of accuracy and other issues.