Race structure analysis

[cashmachine]

I noticed that my program much more successful in one particular type of race: when there are exactly 3 or 4 approximately equal horses and the rest of horses is much weaker (field size is 12-14 horses). My program either doesn't bet or loses badly when there are only 1 or 2 strong horses and rest is much weaker; it is also not successful when there are more than 4 strong horses.

That lead me to a belief that public odds efficiency (in the sense how close they are to real probability of win) is varies with the composition of race, in other word race structure. I cannot yet give good definition of "race structure" but approximately I mean something like: if there is one very strong horse and two good horses (but significantly weaker than the champion), then it is "1-2" race; if there are 3 very strong horses and one good (but not superior) then it is "3-1" race. I hope you get the idea.

I am thinking about separate analysis for every type of race but currently cannot yet give precise definition of "race structure" so I can't program it. I am curious whether somebody is also thinking along these lines? How exactly would you define race structure? Did anybody do any research on this topic? Any ideas would be much appreciated.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

I noticed that my program much more successful in one particular type of race: when there are exactly 3 or 4 approximately equal horses and the rest of horses is much weaker (field size is 12-14 horses). My program either doesn't bet or loses badly when there are only 1 or 2 strong horses and rest is much weaker; it is also not successful when there are more than 4 strong horses.

That lead me to a belief that public odds efficiency (in the sense how close they are to real probability of win) is varies with the composition of race, in other word race structure. I cannot yet give good definition of "race structure" but approximately I mean something like: if there is one very strong horse and two good horses (but significantly weaker than the champion), then it is "1-2" race; if there are 3 very strong horses and one good (but not superior) then it is "3-1" race. I hope you get the idea.

I am thinking about separate analysis for every type of race but currently cannot yet give precise definition of "race structure" so I can't program it. I am curious whether somebody is also thinking along these lines? How exactly would you define race structure? Did anybody do any research on this topic? Any ideas would be much appreciated.

This is a serious response. Where (which tracks) do you regularly find field sizes of 12 - 14 horses?

Thanks.

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

This is a serious response. Where (which tracks) do you regularly find field sizes of 12 - 14 horses?

Thanks.

I bet in Hong-Kong; 95% of races there have at least 12 horses.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

I bet in Hong-Kong; 95% of races there have at least 12 horses.

If I could get "American style" pp's for Hong Kong I would take a long look at that place.


Your post is interesting and may have more to do with public confusion than anything else.
I have never thought of classifying races by betting structure or strength/number of favorites

[classhandicapper]

That pretty interesting because my favorite situation is when there are 1-3 horses that are way above the rest and it's a large field. Some of the deadest horses you are ever going to see still take money in fields like that. Cumulatively they can take quite a lot. So the more the merrier. But if the field is very contentious and deep, I'm often just as confused as everyone else about where the value actually is.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

I noticed that my program much more successful in one particular type of race: when there are exactly 3 or 4 approximately equal horses and the rest of horses is much weaker (field size is 12-14 horses). My program either doesn't bet or loses badly when there are only 1 or 2 strong horses and rest is much weaker; it is also not successful when there are more than 4 strong horses.

That lead me to a belief that public odds efficiency (in the sense how close they are to real probability of win) is varies with the composition of race, in other word race structure. I cannot yet give good definition of "race structure" but approximately I mean something like: if there is one very strong horse and two good horses (but significantly weaker than the champion), then it is "1-2" race; if there are 3 very strong horses and one good (but not superior) then it is "3-1" race. I hope you get the idea.

I am thinking about separate analysis for every type of race but currently cannot yet give precise definition of "race structure" so I can't program it. I am curious whether somebody is also thinking along these lines? How exactly would you define race structure? Did anybody do any research on this topic? Any ideas would be much appreciated.

How big is the sample size for this observation and how far back does it go?

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

If I could get "American style" pp's for Hong Kong I would take a long look at that place.

Here is a typical race card from my source:
http://racinghk.com/premium/formguide/2014-05-28/#7
If you want to get more lines of past runs, click "Show more runs" in the top right corner. This is how race card from HK provider looks like, but I know some people get somewhere race cards from American providers that looks familiar to USA located bettors.

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

How big is the sample size for this observation and how far back does it go?

I bet about 1,5 years and made about 700 bets during that time.

[dannyhill]

Because turf racing produces so many horses who in there previous races had trip issues they are often over looked on the tote board. There speed figures are low and they finished well back, so the public often tosses them.

[Dark Horse]

And what, approximately, is the percentage of races that behave as you describe? Is it the majority? Does it come and go, or is it relatively constant?

I'm just trying to get an initial feel.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

Here is a typical race card from my source:
http://racinghk.com/premium/formguide/2014-05-28/#7
If you want to get more lines of past runs, click "Show more runs" in the top right corner. This is how race card from HK provider looks like, but I know some people get somewhere race cards from American providers that looks familiar to USA located bettors.

Thx - those pp's are nice

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

And what, approximately, is the percentage of races that behave as you describe? Is it the majority? Does it come and go, or is it relatively constant?

I'm just trying to get an initial feel.

I don't know percentages because I can't program it - I can't yet define it. But I instantly recognize the situation simply by looking at the current odds. It happens often enough so that I got conditioned like laboratory rat: every time I see that composition of odds I starting to have a good feeling . Lol . Situation happens approximately twice per racing day (out of 8 or 10 races). I also noticed that in such a situation my program makes multiple bets in the quinella place pool (which is unusual), in other words my program thinks that QPL odds are very inefficient and there are multiple overlays.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

Here is a typical race card from my source:
http://racinghk.com/premium/formguide/2014-05-28/#7
If you want to get more lines of past runs, click "Show more runs" in the top right corner. This is how race card from HK provider looks like, but I know some people get somewhere race cards from American providers that looks familiar to USA located bettors.

Thanks for the link. I've been curious what their PP looked like. Do you have the charts for the above referenced race?

Thanks.

[Maximillion]

I tend to do better in races like this too,the problem is there are not enough of them.Thats why I prefer to look at many tracks....even if it means I sacrifice having any kind of intimate knowledge of the horses and connections.

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Do you have the charts for the above referenced race?

I am not sure what do you mean by "charts". Try to click "PRE-RACE" on the black stripe (command menu) on the top of the page, there they have some info like trainer-jockey etc. stats.