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02-05-2018, 11:10 PM
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#181
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by molson721
Wild swings like this don't happen in the financial markets.
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Perfect timing for the above post, wouldn't you say Molson? LOL
Check out this guy's posts on the market action today...sound familiar? It should...sounds like a lot of guys in this thread...so I guess the same type of thing IS happening in the market, if you put stock in Denninger's words (HFT=High Frequency Trading aka trading BOTS):
http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/...ww?post=232923
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 02-05-2018 at 11:11 PM.
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02-05-2018, 11:22 PM
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#182
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Another troll.. .like they would tell you?
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This reminds me when I was a real greenhorn, those first couple years all those decades ago. This stake winning 3yo at Longacres started his 4yo year 0fer4 or 5, and then, bang, he runs back to his 3yo form. I'm bitching and screaming fix, fix, fix, and some guy out of nowhere gets sick of me, and yells at me so that about 1,000 people can hear, "Something's been bugging the horse for awhile. They figured it out. I'm sure they're sorry they didn't come looking for you to let you know." Literally 1,000 people LAUGHING THEIR ASSES OFF!!!!
Do you have any idea how humiliating it is to a 20 year old drunk punk to be shown up like that? I still squeeze my head every time I think about it. One of the most embarrassing moments of my life.
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02-05-2018, 11:33 PM
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#183
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Appreciate it Ian. You've always been a straight shooter.
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I second this. Solid contribution, whether it's totally digestible to everybody or not. There isn't a thing about it that I find unbelievable. When you churn as much as some of these teams churn, there's plenty to go around and make it worth the time everybody involved.
I wonder if Ian knows Cratos.
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02-05-2018, 11:45 PM
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#184
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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There are a lot of smart people on this board. I know a number of them, that if they would just relax, and look at this with fresh eyes, and learning more and more how these operations work, would see the holes they leave open. To each of their actions, there is a reaction. These teams aren't winning every nickel being bet. And it's more than just crumbs that are left. And to green80, yes, if you pay attention, you will see many winners every day that enter the gate at 5/1 and win at 6 or 7, even 8 and 9 sometimes. You see it ALL THE TIME. It's really the shorter priced horses that take the beating from these outfits on a regular basis. The 13/1 down to 5/1 is dramatic, and honestly, a seldom occurrence. It's maddening as hell to see your 6/1 gate horse pay $9.60, but that is something we have to live with from time to time.
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02-06-2018, 02:03 AM
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#185
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,850
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
So just to sum it up....
If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?
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That light bulb went off in my head and that was the day I quit
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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02-06-2018, 08:05 AM
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#186
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,808
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Yes, I can understand it...so what?
You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.
Now you have to find a way to be profitable against the CRWs...if indeed you think they are the cause of your losses.
I personally think CRWs are the least of my worries when it comes to beating this game.
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It is one of the biggest issues in the game.
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02-06-2018, 08:14 AM
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#187
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?
Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.
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The Bots at Betfair are really good. I was look at a chalk the other day at Turf Paradise. Huge over lay at 2.66 (8-5). I keep on betting and betting.
Price finally started to descend rapidly. went off at evens at Betfair. 3-5 on the tote. aired.
Allan
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02-06-2018, 08:30 AM
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#188
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
There are a lot of smart people on this board. I know a number of them, that if they would just relax, and look at this with fresh eyes, and learning more and more how these operations work, would see the holes they leave open. To each of their actions, there is a reaction. These teams aren't winning every nickel being bet. And it's more than just crumbs that are left. And to green80, yes, if you pay attention, you will see many winners every day that enter the gate at 5/1 and win at 6 or 7, even 8 and 9 sometimes. You see it ALL THE TIME. It's really the shorter priced horses that take the beating from these outfits on a regular basis. The 13/1 down to 5/1 is dramatic, and honestly, a seldom occurrence. It's maddening as hell to see your 6/1 gate horse pay $9.60, but that is something we have to live with from time to time.
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I think that's talking about something different though. From everything I've read on this site about late wagering/bots, they're not burying the favorite in the win pool late. They're betting $200 on the 6-2 exacta, and $50 on the 4-5 exacta, and 50 other bets that are all designed to in total come close to breaking even (with the bettor turning a profit through a big rebate). I've seen horses go up in odds late and win too, but to me that's different than computer wagering bots sucking up most of the overlaid exotics combinations on a regular basis.
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02-06-2018, 08:49 AM
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#189
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,983
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Quote:
You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.
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Difference is that figs did not alter the mechanics of the game at all. Figs are reasonably available to everyone, or they can be made by anyone.
Getting an edge within the game is one thing, having private access to it is another.
For me, i would NEVER consider betting at my former levels no matter what racing ever does. The industry has proven to me beyond any doubt to be run by crooks and incompetent at every level. Nothing racing can do will ever restore its credibility to me.
And I really don't give a crap either.
For God's sake, the MORONS can't freaking tell time!!!!
No one will ever convince me that high rollers are getting access to timing data NOT released to the public. Nod nod, wink wink.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 02-06-2018 at 08:50 AM.
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02-06-2018, 08:51 AM
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#190
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Getting an edge within the game is one thing, having private access to it is another.
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With all due respect, this "private access" or "direct tote" people keep talking about is way overblown and not anywhere close to what you believe it is...
I have private access too...it's called my ADW.
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02-06-2018, 09:47 AM
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#191
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,808
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Late odds drops are more extreme than ever. The ability to send a huge batch that distorts the odds is a major problem. And the reality that the biggest gamblers with massive rebates (much higher than average rebates) are distorting the odds at the last second that produce odds changes well into the race is unacceptable to me and many others. If there wasn't the huge incentive of getting rebates on losing wagers much of this would stop. They would have to significantly change their model. Time to bend the curve back to where it's a fair gamble for EVERYONE.
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02-06-2018, 09:52 AM
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#192
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Yes, I can understand it...so what?
You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.
Now you have to find a way to be profitable against the CRWs...if indeed you think they are the cause of your losses.
I personally think CRWs are the least of my worries when it comes to beating this game.
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I think people are leaving the game, maybe you dont see it that way, maybe its hidden by these CRW handle teams, but this sport is not doing well in my opinion from a gambling perspective. You say change, I believe people are adapting....by going elsewhere.
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02-06-2018, 10:48 AM
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#193
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,777
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Of course people are leaving the game...they've been leaving the game for 50-60-70 years...
If the CRW teams and the whales NEVER EXISTED, I dare say the game would be on extreme life-support right now, existing in only the biggest markets.
So it's kind of a catch-22...you kill the whales now, you really kill the handle and you kill the game even more. And if the whales never existed, the declining fan base would have happened anyway (since it was already happening before the whales and CRWs)...thus the sport would still be screwed.
So what to do?
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 02-06-2018 at 10:52 AM.
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02-06-2018, 12:17 PM
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#194
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Of course people are leaving the game...they've been leaving the game for 50-60-70 years...
If the CRW teams and the whales NEVER EXISTED, I dare say the game would be on extreme life-support right now, existing in only the biggest markets.
So it's kind of a catch-22...you kill the whales now, you really kill the handle and you kill the game even more. And if the whales never existed, the declining fan base would have happened anyway (since it was already happening before the whales and CRWs)...thus the sport would still be screwed.
So what to do?
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yea, i agree
but the prop it up with a crutch rather than fix the real problem never is going to end well, just draws out the final outcome.
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02-06-2018, 01:10 PM
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#195
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
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One problem is how to adapt it. Atm it's rather a question of luck when you bet into the pools. Good luck = the odds of your horse rise, bad luck = the odds of your horse drop. Nobody knows which horse the bot will bet down, probably not even the whales know it.
What I don't get is why they have to bomb the pools in the very last second. This seems craven and unfair. I don't think it would make much difference if some parts of the smaller bets came in after the whales action. The 2$, 10$ and not even the 100$ bettors will change the odds dramatically. The whales change the odds, so they should give the horse players a chance to react to these odds. Or wager at an offshore bookie where they don't influence the odds.
Btw i think this is somehow similar to what these whales are doing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
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