Reality based Belmont handicapping thread ...

[Mad Scientist]

There is obviously two types of handicappers on this site. Those of us that indulge in reality based handicapping using such tools as pp's and video replays and common sense and their is those that prefer their handicapping with a more fantasy flavor to it. They like to make up their own pp's and video replays in their mind and things like common sense just get in the way.

I have decided to make a thread where reality based handicappers can debate and exchange ideas in a effort to solve the Belmont puzzle. A place where people can talk a little trash in order to spur the competitive juices so that we can bring out the best handicappers in all of us. The people that are easily offended over any type of back and forth can go to the other threads that are dominated by the fantasy handicappers. They are very politically correct and have group hugs to soothe any hurt feelings.

You may be asking yourself am I a reality based handicapper or a fantasy based handicapper ? Well here's a little quiz to help you decide ...

1. If you thought CC was all out in the derby and that commanding curve was making up ground because CC was tired than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

2. If you think that ROC would have caught CC in the Preakness if the race was just a little longer than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

3. If you think that Smarty Jones is better than CC because he beat rock hard ten and CC beat ROC in the Preakness and you figure since rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a older horse and ROC has no wins as a grade 1 older horse than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

4. If you honestly can't recall anybody ever saying that CC would not win the Preakness on this forum than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

5. If you think the fact that CC wears a nasal strip is a give away by Sherman that CC can't get a 1 1/2 than you might be a fantasy handicapper.

6. If one of your main betting angles is that CC can't possibly win the Belmont because he's never raced a 1 1/2 mile while ignoring the fact that no horse in the race has ever raced that far than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

7. If your one of the people that voted in the poll on the other thread that you will not use CC on any ticket than you might be a fantasy handicapper but don't feel bad that option is by far winning the vote so apparently a big majority of handicappers on this forum don't think chrome will hit the board.

8. If your going back and forth about whether to single commissioner on top or use general arod with him than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

I think you get the idea .... So let's let the fantasy based handicappers figure out their super tickets that are not going to have CC anywhere to be found on them and us reality based handicappers can figure out how we can use CC and still make a decent profit.

[wiffleball whizz]

CC at +115 tell me everything I need to know about the race.......he's not winning......

[Mad Scientist]

I suggest we get started by analyzing each probable horse in the Belmont from a reality based perspective ... Let's start with commissioner. I think he is the easiest toss in the field. I don't think he has any realistic chance to clunk up in the super . Is there any reality based arguments to be made why commissioner has a shot to hit the super.

Let's debate it. If someone has a good angle on commissioner than let's get it out there so the whole reality based handicapping community can dissect the argument and either conclude that yeah commissioner can hit the super or he can't.

[Mad Scientist]

Alright whiffle ball whizz can you explain your angle a little more in depth ? So your saying that some sportsbook and I am assuming it's a sportsbook since you use the +115 .... Is saying CC is a heavy favorite so that means he can't win, because heavy favorites never win ? Help me understand what your saying .....

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

Alright whiffle ball whizz can you explain your angle a little more in depth ? So your saying that some sportsbook and I am assuming it's a sportsbook since you use the +115 .... Is saying CC is a heavy favorite so that means he can't win, because heavy favorites never win ? Help me understand what your saying .....

If you see a lock at +115 that's means something's not right.... I figured he would be 1/2 Belmont day....and that's -200

I hope I'm wrong but all signs are pointing to a letdown

[thaskalos]

What kind of discussion can this possibly turn out to be?

After you exclude all us "fantasy handicappers"...all you have left are you "reality handicappers"...who have already made up your minds. California Chrome is as close to a sure thing as it gets...and he is a bargain at even-money.

Doesn't sound like much of a discussion to me...

[dannyhill]

Whizzz what is the price on Mad Scientist getting banned before the Belmont Stakes is even run.

[thaskalos]

Mad Scientist...what do you think will be the odds on California Chrome in the Belmont?

[Bullet Plane]

That's all I need...


Some "genius" telling me how he came up with his 1/2 shot!

YGBSM!!!

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

Whizzz what is the price on Mad Scientist getting banned before the Belmont Stakes is even run.

That's got a better shot of happening then CC winning

I was 1/5 from getting banned last year but luckily PA let me slip through the cracks

[Mad Scientist]

I am not suggesting we discuss for 2 weeks whether CC is going to win. I am saying we figure out the superfecta and than maybe some multi race exotics.

[Mad Scientist]

Let me explain it this way. Fantasy handicappers can spend the next two weeks coming up with all sorts of superfectas that don't involve CC since they offer such great value. Personally I don't see what the value is in a losing ticket but hey to each their own. If I followed that logic I would just buy mega million tickets. They only cost a $1 and you can win hundreds of millions . I mean what better value is there than that ? But I don't like losing tickets regardless of what they would have paid if they had actually won and to me any superfecta that has CC nowhere to be found on it is a losing ticket.

Sure CC could take a bad step or the stewards could DQ him but I am old school like Rich Perloff I don't take the possibility of a horse getting pulled up or being DQ as a handicapping angle when figuring out a race. Those are just unlucky things that there is a very small chance of happening and if they happen they happen. It's like there's a chance I'll get hit by lightning everytime I leave my house but I still leave my house. .

[wreckless]

i say we enjoy mad scientists 'triple crown run' on the boards and entertain his 'discussion'

i'm too new to the sport to engage but i do agree with #2 on his list.

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

There is obviously two types of handicappers on this site. Those of us that indulge in reality based handicapping using such tools as pp's and video replays and common sense and their is those that prefer their handicapping with a more fantasy flavor to it. They like to make up their own pp's and video replays in their mind and things like common sense just get in the way.

I have decided to make a thread where reality based handicappers can debate and exchange ideas in a effort to solve the Belmont puzzle. A place where people can talk a little trash in order to spur the competitive juices so that we can bring out the best handicappers in all of us. The people that are easily offended over any type of back and forth can go to the other threads that are dominated by the fantasy handicappers. They are very politically correct and have group hugs to soothe any hurt feelings.

You may be asking yourself am I a reality based handicapper or a fantasy based handicapper ? Well here's a little quiz to help you decide ...

1. If you thought CC was all out in the derby and that commanding curve was making up ground because CC was tired than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

2. If you think that ROC would have caught CC in the Preakness if the race was just a little longer than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

3. If you think that Smarty Jones is better than CC because he beat rock hard ten and CC beat ROC in the Preakness and you figure since rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a older horse and ROC has no wins as a grade 1 older horse than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

4. If you honestly can't recall anybody ever saying that CC would not win the Preakness on this forum than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

5. If you think the fact that CC wears a nasal strip is a give away by Sherman that CC can't get a 1 1/2 than you might be a fantasy handicapper.

6. If one of your main betting angles is that CC can't possibly win the Belmont because he's never raced a 1 1/2 mile while ignoring the fact that no horse in the race has ever raced that far than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

7. If your one of the people that voted in the poll on the other thread that you will not use CC on any ticket than you might be a fantasy handicapper but don't feel bad that option is by far winning the vote so apparently a big majority of handicappers on this forum don't think chrome will hit the board.

8. If your going back and forth about whether to single commissioner on top or use general arod with him than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

I think you get the idea .... So let's let the fantasy based handicappers figure out their super tickets that are not going to have CC anywhere to be found on them and us reality based handicappers can figure out how we can use CC and still make a decent profit.

You know, you have a really annoying way of saying things that are absolutely correct.

[Mystic]

Originally Posted by mostpost

You know, you have a really annoying way of saying things that are absolutely correct.