The Derby

[boys at tosconova]

Enforceable (30-1)
Major Fed (50-1)
King Guillermo (20-1)
Money Moves (30-1)
Thousand Words (15-1)
NY Traffic (20-1)
Honor A.P. (5-1)
Tiz The Law (3-5)
Authentic (8-1)

10/11 horses are gone.

sadly, you cannot eliminate king g even though he hasn't raced in 4 months. you really can't view him as a long shot either.

ny traffic will get bet more than 20-1..same with thousand words

money moves seems like a reach, and enforceable will prolly never reach..but those 2 along with major fed outlast all the other long shots in the field in my breakdown

[taxicab]

Here's how I'm approaching my Derby wager{s} this year:
After handicapping the PP's a few times I couldn't come up with a horse I really liked.
I thought the best horse was probably Honor A.P......but Mike Smith is having trouble with age(no offense GMB@BP.....just my opinion).......so I didn't want that one.....to win.
Next I tried all of the handicapping angles I could think of.......barn switch/equipment change/legit excuses for poor races........that kind of stuff......once again nothing.
So I decided to narrow it down by only using horses that were coming out of what I considered to be the strongest races.
I'm not using times for this one.........I'm going by overall quality of the entire fields......not just the winner......and horses running to their potential(or close to it) in the listed races.
This is how I rated the "preps":
1) Arkansas Derby (Nadal division).
2) Blue Grass
3) San Felipe
4) Kentucky Jockey Club
5) Shared Belief
6) Santa Anita Derby
7) Haskell
8) Belmont
All of the other 2/3yo prep races I had little to no use for.
Using the above 8 races,I've narrowed it down to(in no particular order):
Authentic
Finnick the Fence
Storm the Court
Thousand Words
I'll carry these four in DD/P-3/4/5 and box them in Exacta/Tri's/Super
*Honor A.P/Enforceable.....I'll carry underneath in Exacta/Tri/Super only.
FWIW: Tiz the Law didn't make my list because the horses he's been beating aren't very good.

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by taxicab

This is how I rated the "preps":
1) Arkansas Derby (Nadal division).
2) Blue Grass
3) San Felipe
4) Kentucky Jockey Club
5) Shared Belief
6) Santa Anita Derby
7) Haskell
8) Belmont
All of the other 2/3yo prep races I had little to no use for.
Using the above 8 races,I've narrowed it down to(in no particular order):
Authentic
Finnick the Fence
Storm the Court
Thousand Words

We know why BoysatToscanova doesn't like KG, but how can you include a horse, who finished 3rd in your strongest prep but not the horse who beat him by a geared down length and a half?

Trifectas / / ALL* and / ALL* /

*Not a true all...just haven't eliminated the non-contenders yet.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by usfgeology

We know why BoysatToscanova doesn't like KG, but how can you include a horse, who finished 3rd in your strongest prep but not the horse who beat him by a geared down length and a half?

Trifectas / / ALL* and / ALL* /

*Not a true all...just haven't eliminated the non-contenders yet.

Definitely a fair question.
I didn't carry KG because he only appeared on my list once.
I went with Finnick because he ran well in 3 of my top 5 races.
Sidebar on Finnick....I upgraded his Blue Grass due to his better then looked race.
I almost added King G to my list.....of the three races I considered adding to my list {Pulpit @ GP/Tampa Derby/La Jolla @ DMR} King G was in two of them.
FWIW: The way I chose to handicap & play the Derby this year was definitely "Plan C".
I only go this route when I'm absolutely stumped in a race.
Once in a blue moon it'll work.
Longshot gamble don't ya know.
Good luck Saturday Usfg.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by usfgeology

We know why BoysatToscanova doesn't like KG, but how can you include a horse, who finished 3rd in your strongest prep but not the horse who beat him by a geared down length and a half?

Trifectas / / ALL* and / ALL* /

*Not a true all...just haven't eliminated the non-contenders yet.

that's wrong. i don't dislike him. i'm in king g's corner. i just despise the connections handling of the horse.

he's plenty fast enough to compete and hit the board here.

[boys at tosconova]

revised.

attachment rate floats into king g's spot


Honor A.P. (5-1)
Tiz The Law (3-5)



Enforceable (30-1)
Major Fed (50-1)
Money Moves (30-1)
Thousand Words (15-1)
Attachment Rate (50-1)
NY Traffic (20-1)
Authentic (8-1)


seems like tiz or ap will win.

would not be surprised to see ny traffic and autentic otb...

that leaves a few above horse to make a juicy trifecta

[Rackon]

Finick the Fierce is out with foot issue.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...kentucky-derby

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by Rackon

Finick the Fierce is out with foot issue.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...kentucky-derby

He was trotting lame yesterday, and it was creating quite a buzz. I'm glad after the Mongolian Groom incident, that he was scratched without any questions asked.

[Waquoit]

Any chance Baffert's horse does another Shared Belief job on Tiz?

[groupie doll]

are the top win candidates for me.

Something like-


Max Player/1000 Words/Attach Rate WPS
watching the tote on Honor AP

exactas/tris involving all of the above and mainly underneath.
Enforceable, Major Fed, and Sole Volante I still expect to close well, but their efforts might be mitigated by the defections of Guillermo and Art Collector, both who figured to be on or near the lead. Money Moves is interesting partly because he can sit closer early.
On that note do those same defections/scratches enhance Authentic's chances? I didn't like him before and still don't, though NY Traffic might get a show bet...

[jay68802]

Honor A.P.
Tiz The Law
Authentic
Sole Volante
South Bend
Enforceable
Major Fed

[Secondbest]

No thinking for me. Doing like I did the last few years and going with CJ’s array. Betting anyone of top 5 If over 15-1 ATB. No box since 2 horses are tied for 5th. So Tiz over the other 5 in exacta and triples. I may box the top 5 leaving off the overbet 2nd choice HAP.

[The_Turf_Monster]

I’m playing Sole Volante across the board of hes 21:1 or higher. No reason to overthink this one, there are more competitive fields every weekend across the country on the turf

[f2tornado]

I’m moving up Thousand Words. Geroux was red hot on Oaks card. Horse fits some historical angles and has ideal post. TwinSpires and TVG offering refundable win wagers if horse hits the money. I might throw a $20 on him for shits. Tiz is simply not playable for me at 3/5 aside from the vertical and horizontal gimmicks.

[zico20]

I think it is safe to say you can toss any horse that ran behind Swiss Skydiver in the Bluegrass from the superfecta.