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08-24-2020, 09:43 AM
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#91
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Art Collector
Caracaro
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Thanks. I felt like I was missing at least a couple. I like both of those anyway, so imagine that can't hurt anyway...
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08-24-2020, 10:36 AM
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#92
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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More Buckpasser-x
Art Collector - Bluegrass final 3/8th ~ 37.5
Caracaro
Honor A.P. - Santa Anita Derby final 3/8th in ~37.5
King Guillermo
Storm the Court
Have not looked at fractions for the others yet. Using the old Stanley system, Art and HAP would get 2 points for the fractions and 3 additional for the Buckpasser/fractions. I believe also 2 more for 98 BSF at 9F. AP gets 4 additional for the strong conduit mare Frizette. Need the DRF to figure out the rest. HAP probably tops the checklist and those have historically fared very well.
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08-24-2020, 01:07 PM
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#93
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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LOL, I missed more than a couple. I don't think I looked back far enough on some. This was my first time running the pedigree angles, so you live and learn.
I also looked at some of the other angles not requiring DRF and it does seem like the top horses are the ones being regarded as such:
Tiz the Law, Honor AP, Art Collector, and maybe Caracaro to a lesser degree.
I'm still using Max Player though i am a bit on the fence about him right now.
Attachment Rate, Major Fed, Thousand Words, and possibly Enforceable for some bigger prices underneath.
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08-25-2020, 10:54 AM
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#94
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Being so late in the year, with horses already running the distance, I am not sure the weight of these past angles. As said the top horses are qualifying for the angles so even if they win it only fits into a statistic rather than having any real meaning.
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08-26-2020, 08:34 AM
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#95
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Being so late in the year, with horses already running the distance, I am not sure the weight of these past angles. As said the top horses are qualifying for the angles so even if they win it only fits into a statistic rather than having any real meaning.
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True and noted. Not all of them have run this far and there may be one or two identified (through this system or others) that might pop going 10F first time.
Problem is if one is looking for a price they additionally have to beat TTL who did pop at 10 and is now a more proven commodity. The lateness of the race may just make it a more formful affair, though that seemed to already have happened (indirectly)with induction of the points system several years ago.
Having said that from within this system I did place an asterisk next to the Belmont Stakes, when considering final fractions, due to the one turn configuration. They were the fastest final fractions for the top 3 overall being considered and that's re-iterated at the link below. Part of this has to be because of the track configuration.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...nders-finished
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08-27-2020, 05:52 AM
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#96
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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08-27-2020, 05:31 PM
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#97
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groupie doll
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Attachment Rate confirmed for Derby today by Romans.
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08-28-2020, 05:15 AM
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#98
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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Things are changing faster than grandma's underwear!
Good on AR since I have some interest in using him underneath...
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08-28-2020, 10:58 AM
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#99
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groupie doll
Things are changing faster than grandma's underwear!
Good on AR since I have some interest in using him underneath...
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Yup, and a horse I was gonna use underneath, Caracaro, USA now out with a ligament injury.
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08-28-2020, 11:37 AM
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#100
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Caracaro is out with injury.
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08-28-2020, 01:47 PM
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#101
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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Tiz the Law may be the most likely winner, but I don't see any value with him.
I've been high on Honor AP all spring and summer as a horse that could develop a lot because Shirreffs tends to develop his horses slowly. I didn't hate his last race, but even with the wide trip against flow that was hardly a Derby field. I'm going to use him, especially if he's downgraded by the public because he lost his last race, but I'm not quite as enthusiastic as I was and I'm not sure I trust that 102 Beyer off his last.
I'm most interested in Art Collector. I can't say his last race was on a bad rail with any kind of certainly, but I felt like the races at Ellis that day had more of an outside flow. He showed good speed racing inside. So if anyone is better than they look on paper off numbers, he might be the one. If he's not, he's still not a bad horse that could get better.
I haven't looked closely enough at the rest to see if there are any longshots I might want to get on my tickets.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-28-2020 at 01:48 PM.
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08-28-2020, 02:07 PM
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#102
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rackon
Yup, and a horse I was gonna use underneath, Caracaro, USA now out with a ligament injury.
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That's a shame. He was actually one of my win picks, but he was a must use underneath as well. Will have to wait for another day...
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08-28-2020, 02:15 PM
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#103
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Tiz the Law may be the most likely winner, but I don't see any value with him.
I've been high on Honor AP all spring and summer as a horse that could develop a lot because Shirreffs tends to develop his horses slowly. I didn't hate his last race, but even with the wide trip against flow that was hardly a Derby field. I'm going to use him, especially if he's downgraded by the public because he lost his last race, but I'm not quite as enthusiastic as I was and I'm not sure I trust that 102 Beyer off his last.
I'm most interested in Art Collector. I can't say his last race was on a bad rail with any kind of certainly, but I felt like the races at Ellis that day had more of an outside flow. He showed good speed racing inside. So if anyone is better than they look on paper off numbers, he might be the one. If he's not, he's still not a bad horse that could get better.
I haven't looked closely enough at the rest to see if there are any longshots I might want to get on my tickets.
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I think Art Collector has beaten the best horse in Swiss Skydriver, in terms of the derby preps. TIZ the law is probably 50% to win the race but I think Art Collector is the second likeliest horse.
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08-28-2020, 05:49 PM
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#104
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 79
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Beware of the other Baffert
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08-31-2020, 03:59 AM
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#105
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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My Top 5 for the win as of 8/11/2020 posted were:
--Major Fed
--Honor A.P.
--Art Collector
--Country Grammer
--Dr.Post
Since 2 of those are out, I'll just keep Honor AP and Major Fed for now.
Add Enforceable.
No idea yet who will be in my exotics.
ANyone get a long term weather report? If slop I'm not playing.
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