Help me make more sense of Run Styles, save for E runners...

[classhandicapper]

Is this an E horse?

This gets tricky for me.

My computer generated running styles are mostly geared towards pace projection and not the preferred running style of the horse when he's sharp.

If a horse showed speed when it was in form but has been getting outrun lately, it might still technically be an E, but I'd expect it to contribute little to nothing to the fractions and pace pressure today.

The same is true of E routers dropping into a sprint or even long sprinters (7F) with some speed dropping back to short sprints (5F or 5 1/2F). I make adjustments for distance.

The trickiest adjustments are turf to dirt and vice versa because not only are you dealing with different average paces between the surfaces, you are also dealing with surface preferences. In those cases I make a small adjustment but in the end wind up just looking at the PPs and taking my best guess about surface preference and what the horse might do.

I also want to eventually add a class adjustment to it.

A horse that has been showing speed against much weaker (even if the fractions seem fast enough to lead today) will often just get outrun or quickly disposed of against better horses at higher class levels that are quicker to accelerate and take control.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by Tom

I would call it an E horse.
It shows 2 races where it finished within a lenght, and ran early both times.

That is how Bris thinks......same surf / sprint or route

HTR calls him a "P"....2 horses should be faster

If he trys to run as a E...hes probably dead around the turn

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by bisket

I'm sure I'll get lots of blow back from others on this, but there's no such thing as an E horse on turf... there's only the occasional race that the early leader gets away with a crawling pace and wins.

Wasn't Little Mike an E horse?

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This gets tricky for me.

My computer generated running styles are mostly geared towards pace projection and not the preferred running style of the horse when he's sharp.

If a horse showed speed when it was in form but has been getting outrun lately, it might still technically be an E, but I'd expect it to contribute little to nothing to the fractions and pace pressure today.

The same is true of E routers dropping into a sprint or even long sprinters (7F) with some speed dropping back to short sprints (5F or 5 1/2F). I make adjustments for distance.

The trickiest adjustments are turf to dirt and vice versa because not only are you dealing with different average paces between the surfaces, you are also dealing with surface preferences. In those cases I make a small adjustment but in the end wind up just looking at the PPs and taking my best guess about surface preference and what the horse might do.

I also want to eventually add a class adjustment to it.

A horse that has been showing speed against much weaker (even if the fractions seem fast enough to lead today) will often just get outrun or quickly disposed of against better horses at higher class levels that are quicker to accelerate and take control.

Adjusted times for beaten lengths show the horse is running similar times in all of his races. I don't use this for turf, but a horse with this kind of line shows up on dirt there is one place I like him for a win. At 7 furs or a mile on a deep track that figures to have a slow pace. He's a great addition to an exacta, trifecta, and super box. He figures to take minimal money at those distances and the slow pace puts him in at least the top 3. He could even jump up and win...

In claiming ranks the short distances could just be for fitness. The trainer is helping track secratary fill races.

[Saratoga]

How many people use Early Energy as a gauge ?

PL-5 is programs default

PL-7 is the "ALL" button (my choice because of the whole picture thing)

AS you can see Late Energy prevails...

As 49 is the lowest it goes ...Question is - How far is he really behind?

Or do you take a horse that is Late but closer than the others????

Good exercise here.....

NOTE: nCLA is the class ....3= MSW...4=MDN Claiming

[bisket]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Wasn't Little Mike an E horse?

Little Mike?

[MJC922]

The way I look at E horses is they're one-way speed horses, if they aren't one-way then P should be part of it. I think it's safe to say a horse that passes three horses in the final eighth of a turf route is probably not a legit E horse but calling it a P horse I can see.

I think with my own stuff it comes down to a bit of a blend of what they 'are' from a low level look at individual races and also 'where' they can be expected to run from today looking at it from a high level with perhaps some weighting given to the larger body of races or maybe even more recent races. It's a lot of IF/then/else in my code and I think there are probably folks who can come to all different conclusions on styles.

Me personally, I would not want to be using a product that called this an E horse, with all due respect to BRIS as they generally have a pretty darn good product IMO.

[Tom]

Got a chart so we can see how the horse actually ran?

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

How many people use Early Energy as a gauge ?

PL-5 is programs default

PL-7 is the "ALL" button (my choice because of the whole picture thing)

AS you can see Late Energy prevails...

As 49 is the lowest it goes ...Question is - How far is he really behind?

Or do you take a horse that is Late but closer than the others????

Good exercise here.....

NOTE: nCLA is the class ....3= MSW...4=MDN Claiming

With a little reasonable deduction , you would have a 5-1 Winner ... the 5

[Tom]

If you ignore all the other horse you didn't show PPS for?

Track? Date?

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by Tom

If you ignore all the other horse you didn't show PPS for?

Track? Date?

Its in the picture Tom...

today gp 6th

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by bisket

I'm sure I'll get lots of blow back from others on this, but there's no such thing as an E horse on turf... there's only the occasional race that the early leader gets away with a crawling pace and wins.

Ever watch a 5f-7f turf race? I think you should append to your remarks “depending on distance”

Here’s today’s chart. Tried to be an E again today

Not sure the chart is accurate

YouTube

[denniswilliams]

Slightly more complicated training material





https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video...no=09&lang=eng

[bisket]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Ever watch a 5f-7f turf race? I think you should append to your remarks “depending on distance”

Here’s today’s chart. Tried to be an E again today

Not sure the chart is accurate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAljY00PKrQ

His position early depends on a slow pace. The horse doesn’t adjust his early pace to the field. When I see him chasing a 23 flat a few lengths behind I’ll consider him an E if the race is on dirt. He’s lolly gagging around the track to his own tune…. He’ll catch a slow pace sometime and sniff the lead, and maybe get competitive and win… they’re most likely running him on turf because you’re more likely to get an early slow pace to his liking with hopes he feels like running enough to win.

[classhandicapper]

One of the things I do is keep track of how many speeds are in each race. That way when horses come out of those races, I know whether it was a horse that made the lead in race where there was no speed or whether it outran other speed horses. I also know if a true E that didn't made the lead last time just happened to have drawn into a race loaded with other Es or whether he just wasn't as sharp. It's not perfect because no running style algorithm is going to be perfect, but it helps catch extremes.

In any event, the horse in question would not be an E on my figures.