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Old 09-21-2019, 11:30 AM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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R10 Parx G1 Cotillion 9/21/19

Big day of racing at Parx, and the card of the day to play. Penn Derby didn't fill up all that well, but the Cotillion is loaded for the race of the day.

Serengetti Empress: Little doubt what she'll do as she'll steam to the front and look to wall everybody off. Worked fantastically in the Kentucky Oaks, but she gave it up late in her last two at 7F and a mile. Difficult to see here as lone speed and able to get away with Guarana and Jaywalk also in here.

Afleet Destiny: 1 for 14 lifetime and was spanked in the prep for this race by 13 lengths. At least connections will have great seats for watching and wagering today.

Street Band: An all or nothing sort with 3 wins in 6 tries as a 3YO including a couple of graded stakes wins. Ran an absolute clunker in the Kentucky Oaks 3 back, but her last two show she can be competitive in here. Sophie knows this one like the back of her hand, and if they get too feisty on the front, she may well be the biggest benefactor of them all. Chance at a price.

Jeltrin: After lighting up the tote board at nearly 52/1 in the G2 Davonna Dale, this gal hasn't done much running till her last out in winning the local prep by nearly 8 lengths. Unfortunately for these connections there is no way she is clear by 4 lengths at the 2nd call in this one today. Has been beaten by a number of peers in here multiple times, and beat soundly. Would need her absolute career best, and still might not even be good enough to hit the board.

Collegeville Girl: Lightly raced filly is working well and is 1 for 1 at this venue. Serious questions about distance as she has never gone more than 7F in 4 career races. Little doubt they'll send and see how far she can go today. Hard to see her being anything more than a pace influence.

Horologist: Really nice last race in which she stalked and wore down Jaywalk in the G3 Monmouth Oaks. On a roll with 4 straight wins, but this is the best of the best in her peer group today. Improving filly could be dangerous sitting off the pace and getting 1st run.

She Makes Me Smile: 19 career races already and has shown no ability that she is good enough to run with these. Beaten by 30 in the prep for this race, and 99/1 on the tote will be an underlay.

Guarana: Lightly raced filly has done absolutely everything right in her 3 races and 3 wins. 3 races in and already with 2 G1 wins under her belt. Shown she likes the front, but her race in the Acorn was scary as she was able to sit and then simply walk past a solid field when the real racing mattered winning by a growing 6 lengths. The one to beat and will be very short odds.

Sweet Sami D: 4 races ago she was in a $16KOC at Monmouth. Something happened that day as she blitzed the field by 20 and has been a completely different horse since then. That was a solid effort in the G3 Monmouth Oaks last out, and if she can build on that one can be competitive in here at a price. Maybe not on top, but can get a piece in here.

Bellafina: She was the one to beat rollling into last year's BC Juvenile Filly only to not fire and finish a disappointing 4th. Rolled up a 3 race win streak at Santa Anita to kick off her 3YO campaign, but her last 2 are real head scratchers yet again. Blinkers go back on as she never got engaged early in those two races. Undoubtedly needs to get into the race earlier, but has obviously shown flashes of brilliance in her career thus far. Is the equipment change enough to fire her up again today?

Jaywalk: The 2YO champ hasn't had a steller 3YO season. Lone victory was in the G3 ranks at Delaware against a bunch of horses that aren't here today. She has done all her best work on the front end, and this post pretty much determines she gets out and in position to the short 1st turn. all to her inside is likely a problem in which she is gonna be wide likely throughout.

SUMMARY: Post positions pretty well dictate that the have to get out and be on or very near the lead. Could be some bumper cars heading into that first turn with others in the middle wanting to be forwardly placed as well. All likely sets up for the , but also gives and solid chances in here.

W
EX Box:
Ex /

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 09-21-2019 at 11:41 AM.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:00 PM   #2
Robert Fischer
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GUARANA - I'm on the fence (meaning on the fence of whether she's a superstar, no about a wager decision).
Her last race was good for anyone else, but a bit flat and disappointing for the superstar hype. Ortiz? even resorted to herding in deep stretch(although it seemed to have no need/effect). Guarana broke to command that day, smoothly along the rail, and at least the perception was that of a moderate, controlled tempo...

However, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if she comes out today and is every bit as electric as she seemed coming into last (was it the ccaoaks?)... (my memory is terrible, it took me 5 min to recall the word 'precocious' for the following argument)

I have no confidence in opposing her, but if I had a really strong opinion in a false favorite in a nearby leg, I could use some 'B' horses as well.


JAYWALK is the one entry in here where I disagree with the general 'Narrative'... Supposedly/as the Story goes; "She is a ridged example of a precocious sort, and she simply hasn't matured from two to three..."

I'm somewhere between "not enough proof" and "strongly disagree" (i guess I 'mildly disagree? egh...)
Anyway, occasionally there is some value to be found when you disagree with 'the narrative'...
She ran fine in dusting that weak field in Delaware.
She ran fine last time. Yes I know she was 1/5, but I think that was the heat day, and she didn't run a bad effort so much as the winner had a better trip and happened to run a big one. (speaking of Horologist, no reason that if she sucks up on the rail today and runs for a placing that she can't accomplish a minor award)

SERENGETI EMPRESS ran surprisingly well last time. I want to say that the flow carried-late, but I don't know if that's more to rationalize-away an effort that was better than I expected.

BELLAFINI has the looks of a dressed up runner that has been exposed, but the class is there, and even with knowing that she was dressed up, the fact that she has taken money consecutively is still a model with some significance. I just don't expect Parx today to be the place to stalk from off the pace in a race like this.


PASS-and CHEER race for me... Mild i-told-u-so interest in JAYWALK contending or winning as well
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 09-21-2019 at 12:01 PM.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:10 PM   #3
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I'm seeing the Ortiz brothers crossing the line together. ex box
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:15 PM   #4
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Race sets up perfect for the chalk. Maybe the 6 can squeak into the exacta.

the 3 will be overbet, contender but wont shock me if that horse is like 7/2.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:26 PM   #5
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Trifecta 1-8 / 3-6-10-11 / 3-6-10-11 cost $20 will have to check odds at post time.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:28 PM   #6
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Quote:
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Trifecta 1-8 / 3-6-10-11 / 3-6-10-11 cost $20 will have to check odds at post time.
what if the . or runs 2nd?
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:31 PM   #7
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what if the . or runs 2nd?

yes i'll have the 1-8 for 2nd and 3rd. I might just key the 1 with 3-6-8-10-11 cost $18
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:32 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Race sets up perfect for the chalk. Maybe the 6 can squeak into the exacta.

the 3 will be overbet, contender but wont shock me if that horse is like 7/2.
Bellafina 6-1 ML don't think she has ever went off that high. That should keep odds higher-I think
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:35 PM   #9
Tom
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A horses


B horses
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:47 PM   #10
GMB@BP
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Bellafina 6-1 ML don't think she has ever went off that high. That should keep odds higher-I think
Bellafina will be greater than 10/1 in this spot.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:58 PM   #11
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Bellafina will be greater than 10/1 in this spot.
I love Street Band here
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:10 PM   #12
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I love Street Band here
She can win with the right setup, but unsure how many people also love her here, feels like a lot.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:56 PM   #13
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I just don’t see any real value in this race other than singling Gaurana in horizontal bets. Sure, I can make cases for horses like Street Band, Serengeti Empress, or Jaywalk but I would need double digit odds to bet them to win.
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Old 09-21-2019, 02:08 PM   #14
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I agree with Robert, GUARANA was not impressive in her last race, the win in the CCA Oaks. I frankly, expected a Racheal Alexander performance. The Beyer they gave her was 7 points less than her Acorn win.

Now it's not the filly's fault that she didn't meet my expectations, but I'm always looking for a reason to toss the favorite. The could wire this field or the or could pick up the pieces if she doesn't.

WIN: ,

EXACTA BOX: , ,
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Old 09-21-2019, 05:07 PM   #15
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