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Old 02-09-2024, 06:48 PM   #31
rastajenk
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Are there enough of these waiver-claimers to chart how they do, in general? A new column in the spreadsheet? Some coding for "pm workout" vs "well meant, needs one" or something like that?

I guess I've seen them before, but never thought about factoring in a reason why and just 'capped them like all the others.
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Old 02-09-2024, 07:24 PM   #32
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Are there enough of these waiver-claimers to chart how they do, in general? A new column in the spreadsheet? Some coding for "pm workout" vs "well meant, needs one" or something like that?

I guess I've seen them before, but never thought about factoring in a reason why and just 'capped them like all the others.
Over my decades there, it was a actually fairly simple process once you know the players involved. Nothing is always right but here are a few parameters to work with to get you to a decision.

Back then you did not get trainer stats like today, you had to know them or guess. Today, you do.
Simply look at who the trainer is and that trainers record off 90 or more days and optimally, 6 months or more, whatever they give you, and that is a good start.
Now look at the horses form and see how the horse did, not just how the trainer did, off time or as a firster. Doesn't have to be that length of time but whatever is available.
Once you have those, look at the rider, not to see if it's the leading rider, it most likely will be far from that, but look at the success of that rider or relationship with that trainer , if you can find that. That will help.

Put all that together and you have climbed into the trainers head as to what he/she is trying to accomplish. Are they just trying to get the horse back to the races and see what happens, or are they trying to take full advantage of a horse that does very well off time, and, the horse is doing real well.

While the cashing tickets stuff does exist, I pay no attention to that angle, having seen pulls and can't lose horses go down the tubes at about a 85% rate over many years of time. It's a great story, and a gamblers dream, but on the back side, it's rarely that.

You can look at the works for spacing consistency but pay little attention to the times. It's not how fast but "how" they do it. I doubt many would allow the horse to go fast.

Lastly, look at the horse on the track. If it's fat, I doubt it will run well. But if it's proportioned properly, well that's a real good thing.

Please note that this is like a two minute handicap but I think it should and I hope that it will help.

GL.

Last edited by Ruffian1; 02-09-2024 at 07:34 PM.
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Old 02-10-2024, 06:32 PM   #33
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Over my decades there, it was a actually fairly simple process once you know the players involved. Nothing is always right but here are a few parameters to work with to get you to a decision.

Back then you did not get trainer stats like today, you had to know them or guess. Today, you do.
Simply look at who the trainer is and that trainers record off 90 or more days and optimally, 6 months or more, whatever they give you, and that is a good start.
Now look at the horses form and see how the horse did, not just how the trainer did, off time or as a firster. Doesn't have to be that length of time but whatever is available.
Once you have those, look at the rider, not to see if it's the leading rider, it most likely will be far from that, but look at the success of that rider or relationship with that trainer , if you can find that. That will help.

Put all that together and you have climbed into the trainers head as to what he/she is trying to accomplish. Are they just trying to get the horse back to the races and see what happens, or are they trying to take full advantage of a horse that does very well off time, and, the horse is doing real well.

While the cashing tickets stuff does exist, I pay no attention to that angle, having seen pulls and can't lose horses go down the tubes at about a 85% rate over many years of time. It's a great story, and a gamblers dream, but on the back side, it's rarely that.

You can look at the works for spacing consistency but pay little attention to the times. It's not how fast but "how" they do it. I doubt many would allow the horse to go fast.

Lastly, look at the horse on the track. If it's fat, I doubt it will run well. But if it's proportioned properly, well that's a real good thing.

Please note that this is like a two minute handicap but I think it should and I hope that it will help.

GL.
Good post, sir. You have laid out the time-honored road map that lots of sharp players use to identify live comebackers.When I get time, I will add in a hard-learned angle, or two, of my own that might prove helpful.

Even so-and as your posting seems to imply-assessing "fresh" horses can be tricky and frustrating. In many instances, it's been my observation, they get over-bet based merely on superior past performances by players with no special insight or reason to believe they are fit or particularly well meant.

As an absolute cro-magnon man who cut teeth on tracks so small and self-contained that any horse skipping even one much-needed turn through the entry box-and, amazingly, this was back when condition books employed a just SEVEN DAY rotation-was best viewed with grave suspicion-it's still hard to wrap my mind around how much more frequently thoroughbreds now score without showing a recent start.

But that's a separate topic, I'm sure, for another time.
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Old 02-11-2024, 05:01 PM   #34
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Hi Jason. Since Jan 22, a negative rail bias has been in play at Mvr, some days more potent than others. Players who have not and do not take this into account might find it hard to correctly interpret some results.

On a similar note-and this might throw some old-school handicappers off balance- the surface almost never favors early speed. Certain days may find the footing neutral...but almost never straight up speed favoring.

I've also found that, for whatever reason, the anti-rail trend seems to intensify in later races. That track changes.
Tuff Attack came back to win on Mon FEB 5 at a very generous $10.20.

Had been against the surface and the setup and flow of the races.
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Old 02-11-2024, 05:37 PM   #35
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Tuff Attack came back to win on Mon FEB 5 at a very generous $10.20.

Had been against the surface and the setup and flow of the races.
Very true. Nailed him. Glad you did too. The Big Heavy Boy chalk in that race was off form, unsuited to the distance, poorly drawn, and taking a pessimistic drop.

Tuff Attack, in fact, was a turning point for me. Had 60 bux left in my pocket and bet it on his nose, so either he wins, or I hit the atm. On a (much needed) roll since that race.

Last edited by mountainman; 02-11-2024 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 02-11-2024, 07:27 PM   #36
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Very true. Nailed him. Glad you did too. The Big Heavy Boy chalk in that race was off form, unsuited to the distance, poorly drawn, and taking a pessimistic drop.

Tuff Attack, in fact, was a turning point for me. Had 60 bux left in my pocket and bet it on his nose, so either he wins, or I hit the atm. On a (much needed) roll since that race.


$10.20 was a gift on a horse that would be attractive at 2/1.
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Old 02-12-2024, 09:38 AM   #37
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it's been my observation, they get over-bet based merely on superior past performances by players with no special insight or reason to believe they are fit or particularly well meant.

That's what a lot of the data says also.
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Old 02-13-2024, 01:05 AM   #38
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Tuff Attack came back to win on Mon FEB 5 at a very generous $10.20.

Had been against the surface and the setup and flow of the races.
Jason, I'm sure you don't need my help in deciphering the grain of Mahoning's surface. But to expound a bit on my prior post making reference to an over-arching dead-rail trend kicking in on Jan 22, I would list Jan 30 , Feb 1, and Feb 5 as exceptions.

Boy, was today's card unbettable, or what? With one (sad) caveat: That 10-1 mdn in the third was soooo hittable..but I was conversing with an old buddy and asleep at the switch.
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Old 02-14-2024, 11:44 PM   #39
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Long long ago, I liked a horse in a race, and went to the paddock to take a closer look.


Knee the size of a bowling ball. Scared me off.



Horse had been winning, and guess what. Won again.
Happened to me in both T-Bred and Harness.
Both instances horse I liked , had good lines. Was well meant for the race and wasn't getting hammered in the win pool, but each warmed up so poorly, I tossed them , thinking I was the smartest person in the room. Both won their respective races.
A few years later, I spoke to a guy I knew who was in the business( Thoroughbred) told him about it. He said some horses just don't gallop well in pre race warm ups. "they can look like (schite)"....LOL.
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Old 02-15-2024, 09:16 PM   #40
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$10.20 was a gift on a horse that would be attractive at 2/1.
Great time to focus on mvr. Dead surface murdering speed and playing to wide closers. Can’t remember a run like this since the heady days of dumb money back when Austintown was completely off the grid.
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Old 02-21-2024, 02:06 PM   #41
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Soup billed by perky waitress yesterday in second floor sports bar as “veggie” refluxed at 3am almost ending me. Ever had the acid from a horrid meal actually shoot from your nose?

Shame on them for dicing slimy white onions, throwing in some green and red bits of pepper and serving up the stinky half-cooked abomination as “vegetable” soup. Tragically, it took two big spoonfuls to alert me that I’d been had. HAD??? How about nearly murdered???

24 hours later and I am STILL queasy and steaming mad. How cheap, uncaring and inept can you be??????

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Old 02-22-2024, 09:12 PM   #42
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Soup billed by perky waitress yesterday in second floor sports bar as “veggie” refluxed at 3am almost ending me. Ever had the acid from a horrid meal actually shoot from your nose?

Shame on them for dicing slimy white onions, throwing in some green and red bits of pepper and serving up the stinky half-cooked abomination as “vegetable” soup. Tragically, it took two big spoonfuls to alert me that I’d been had. HAD??? How about nearly murdered???

24 hours later and I am STILL queasy and steaming mad. How cheap, uncaring and inept can you be??????

Hope you are feeling better Mark. Rhode Island Mountaineer nation (I might be the only one but who knows) looks forward to your return in April/May. I am tired of the bull rings and poly racing that I have to suffer playing during the winter.

Side note: I've been playing horses since 1993 and you are the only track handicapper that I learn new things from plus I do enjoy your stories and your Halloween cellphone text message sound. Stay healthy my friend!
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Old 02-23-2024, 09:13 PM   #43
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Hope you are feeling better Mark. Rhode Island Mountaineer nation (I might be the only one but who knows) looks forward to your return in April/May. I am tired of the bull rings and poly racing that I have to suffer playing during the winter.

Side note: I've been playing horses since 1993 and you are the only track handicapper that I learn new things from plus I do enjoy your stories and your Halloween cellphone text message sound. Stay healthy my friend!
Tx, dude. I don't wager from home, so my winter, though profitable, has been spent in dark, under-heated, lonely venues. And since I'm probably a bit A D D, staying focused and disciplined has been the challenge.

I will say the "fortress of solitude" settings compel my restless mind to see old things in new ways. Fresh, counterintuitive takes on nuances of trip, running style, and trainer intent, for example, have crept into my thinking and might remain there.

Rhode Island? Sweet! My dad's mom, Fanny Williams, belonged to an organization called "Daughters of the American Revolution" and was a direct descendant of Roger Williams, who founded your home state. Even as his puritanical brethren sought to impose their values and beliefs on native Americans, Williams adamantly refused to follow suit, and his forceful objections led to exile into the stark wilderness.

The man, in fact, literally FOUNDED the principle of religious freedom in America and also espoused a strict separation of church and state. My admiration for him knows no limit.

On the reflux thing-I'm actually NOT a soup fan (wet, sloppy foods usually repulse me), but I have been trying (just somewhat successfully) to lose weight, and that rules out a more substantial lunch.

Can't wait to resume the show. Passing much of the time at Planet Fitness and getting as strong as Odd Jobs ( the BEST Bond henchman). How pointless for a guy my age-especially since the bench press won't add 2 yards off the tee....

Apologies to the board for these meanderings. I'm home alone this evening and wanted to kill some time before cracking tomorrow's Mvr form.

Last edited by mountainman; 02-23-2024 at 09:16 PM.
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Old 02-24-2024, 11:28 PM   #44
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Quarantine (strangles) winnowing fields at Mvr. Two horse match in today's second ( Sadly, i "singled" other runner in dd).

Insiders not optimistic that quick end is in sight. Have not checked their entry schedule, but assume they took for monday AFTER "no ship-in" edict came down..meaning what you see on overnite might henceforth be pretty much what you get.
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