Tournaments

[GMB@BP]

You still have to handicap the races and the card.

There are days where the races are chalky, you cant just say I am going to take long shots just because the favs in a race appear pretty strong.

You need to also understand what kind of races typically produce the best kind of payoffs, its not all the same.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

In tournaments each race offers a finite amount points.

If a 1/9 shot is used and wins. And the place horse pays less than $4.40 the player has maximized the tactical potential of that race.

I wouldn't recommend doing it all the time. But in the pursuit of accumulating points it's not always incorrect.

Whereas, pari-mutually I can't ever see it being justified.

Yes, I've lost tournaments by less than that. Just speaking for me, I would only use chalk tactically as a block, perhaps late. I'm always looking for a way to beat the favorite, even if it doesn't exist!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You still have to handicap the races and the card.

There are days where the races are chalky, you cant just say I am going to take long shots just because the favs in a race appear pretty strong.

You need to also understand what kind of races typically produce the best kind of payoffs, its not all the same.

Yep. Won an 8 race tournament with 5 winners and 2 Place horses that paid a grand total of $45.80. Everybody on the board was within dollars, if not cents.



The one place horse paid $8.80 or so, and put me over the winning horse that paid like $6.60 to WP.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Yes, I've lost tournaments by less than that. Just speaking for me, I would only use chalk tactically as a block, perhaps late. I'm always looking for a way to beat the favorite, even if it doesn't exist!

As you should be.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

As you should be.

what would you do with the CC Oaks today in a contest?

the fav will be 4/5, the second choice 6/5 and to me maybe if somehow smith and florant hook up because they are the two best horses eskimo kisses can improve 10 lengths and beat them.

Its a very unlikely scenario, you are in a pick and pray, meaning you have to put in before the first race goes off, its not live betting.

Very tough, I took the chalk because I figured the card looked chalky.

[JeremyJet]

Re: Value

Vic,

Earlier in this thread you mentioned head-to-head tournaments and how well you would do if you just played that format. Why is that? Is there something about the head-to-head format that offers value over other tournament formats?

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Keep your eye on him and see if he continues that betting pattern, and where he ends up. If he's consistently betting favorites I don't think he'll be in the top 10 or 20. Is it a pick-and-pray? I can't fathom anyone betting a 1/9 purposely in a tournament. The place horse at decent odds would earn you more.

Most people in the tourney used the horse. But yeah, the place horse paid more than the W&P combined on the winner. I think it was the 2nd at Mth today.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

Re: Value

Vic,

Earlier in this thread you mentioned head-to-head tournaments and how well you would do if you just played that format. Why is that? Is there something about the head-to-head format that offers value over other tournament formats?

If your an elite handicapper dont you have a significant advantage just about every time one tees it up, with your losses more due to bad luck?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

Re: Value

Vic,

Earlier in this thread you mentioned head-to-head tournaments and how well you would do if you just played that format. Why is that? Is there something about the head-to-head format that offers value over other tournament formats?

Not to answer for Vic, but I'm 100% sure he knows he is better than most at this game. Thus whatever money is on the table, he'll win at least 60% of the time.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

can we go back a little and discuss strategy a little more?

Vic and Mr. Courtney mentioned price points in tournaments. I think Vic mentioned he likes to average around $8 when its all said and done. Mr. Courtney $11? Does that mean you will never use a short priced favorite in a tournament?

I noticed a guy today used a 1/9 shot (it won) in a feeder for the big tournament today at HorseTourneys. Is it even worth using a horse with such low odds?

Let's discuss what was said. Vic said 8 dollar average that is correct, I said 11 dollar median, that is also correct. This means that the distribution of the top finishers is skewed to the right. This is not surprising at all, the "sample" size of races in any format is small 6 to 12 races. When a bomb hits it will skew the distribution to the right greatly. If it's a chalky day, then the median and average will be equal. I want to explain that the rationale and the math behind targeting an end goal that is race count * 11 dollars roughly means I'm trying to match my selections odds to the distributions of the final winning dollar amounts in the past, those distributions are quite consistent. So I can count on the end goal being approximately the same with every contest, some days based on my selections, it might make no sense to play, other days, I might have 2 or 3 10/1 or 15/1 shots that I believe are live. I will say if my top picks (some have to be shots) when combined with other selections are below 5/1 on average, I probably shouldn't play, because I'm likely to lose, this is based in math I have developed around contests, I try to stay very objective about the final distributions of the winners. Do I care if I play a tournament and end up with zero dollars at the end? Absolutely not, I do know if don't include some price horses I will typically lose, but hey if a few connect I look like a genius right? In addition to the math, style wise that is my preference, as opposed to trying to to hit chalk pick 6's inside the limited contest races. For feeder contests (6 or less races) this can be a useful strategy, but again you have to run the numbers based on your historical data! If you keep winning feeders but fail when the race count is doubled that is the number one clue your a good handicapper that needs to be more aggressive in the larger contests. For cash contests Vic (and folks like Eric Moomey) have the strategy spot on, that is to play as few value bets as possible and maximize the amount you play on them, that is why he is successful, he's playing the optimal strategy, which is go all in on a single contest winning bet, hit or go home. The math actually supports that approach, the optimal play is nothing or all in on your best overlay, the key is to do that when that wager will win. Hope this is helpful.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

what would you do with the CC Oaks today in a contest?

the fav will be 4/5, the second choice 6/5 and to me maybe if somehow smith and florant hook up because they are the two best horses eskimo kisses can improve 10 lengths and beat them.

Its a very unlikely scenario, you are in a pick and pray, meaning you have to put in before the first race goes off, its not live betting.

Very tough, I took the chalk because I figured the card looked chalky.

Sorry, I didn't look at that race.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

Re: Value

Vic,

Earlier in this thread you mentioned head-to-head tournaments and how well you would do if you just played that format. Why is that? Is there something about the head-to-head format that offers value over other tournament formats?

Yes. I only have to defeat one opponent. I have great confidence in my abilities.

[v j stauffer]

1 Dimitrios Patouhas - Entry 1 $15.20
2 victor stauffer - Entry 1 $0.00

This is not enjoyable

Let's GO

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Yes. I only have to defeat one opponent. I have great confidence in my abilities.

Mr. Thaskalos has confidence in himself as well.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Yes. I only have to defeat one opponent. I have great confidence in my abilities.

Why aren't there any double elimination bracket contests is beyond me, the math says the largest contest pool size of entrants should not exceed the average number of horses per race, such that "stabbing" is not rewarded, and at that point you could even remove the cap win and place payoff too!
really wish they had double elimination 5 person contests leading to a final table, that would be much more reflective of skill of selection and wagering acumen.