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10-22-2019, 10:58 AM
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#1
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Finger Lakes R6 Today (potentially interesting)
Interesting race. 11 $5k claimers going 1m70 for $10K
watch out for scratches and track condition
 THERE HE GOES 3/1
Drops in class. Last time was sent into an extreme early pace. Took the first turn hard as well. A sensible trip and he should contend or draw off. Good post position as well. He's a win bet at 5/2+, but I'd have to guess he'll take money and be a 'key' instead?? Tough to guess the public here and anticipate scratches.
 FLOYD UNGER 7/2
Drops in class for Englehart. 'Nuff said. Respect.
 BASE JUMPER 8/1
Really 'fun' deep closer. Class a question, but continues these physics defying late rallies from wayyy out of it. Oscar Gomez up on this horse for the first time in visible (last 10pps) history, and Gomez is himself an expert with closer types. His bris stats/roi are surprisingly good. Considering class and the two droppers, I think it's more sensible to think of this guy as an underneath type.
 IRON FORK 4/1
Underlay for a solid horse. I'm 'tossing' (barring significant scratches)
Terrible post position for a horse who ran a much-the-best 2nd last time. Stamina is a question after he hung badly in deep stretch last time. TBH I hope he gets caught wide and does some serious running before tiring, so I can bet him again in the future. I do not personally think he's a super attractive claim, but he is a 3yo NY-bred who isn't running for a supertrainer, and isn't much of a threat to graduate conditions today (he's at least competitive for one more check at current class).
potentially interesting action
pre-scratch betting
1w3pl? 
on top in multis
/ exacta
/ posts1-8 / 50c Tri ($6)
/ posts1-8 / 'ALL' / 10c Super ($9.60)
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-22-2019, 12:15 PM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
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Couple non-contenders scratched.  
Most significant part of this is moving the IRON FORK two closer to the rail. I still don't like him at post #9, I'll keep the play as is...
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-22-2019, 12:35 PM
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#3
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,869
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Good race, Robert.
I'm going with, pending rain, strong bias early one, with
 could be running late along the rail....at a price
Getting a little darker here in Canandaigua.
I'm 7 miles south of the track, and the skies that way are very cloudy, wind picking up. Cooooool outside.
Maybe I'll head out for the later races.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 10-22-2019 at 12:40 PM.
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10-22-2019, 01:33 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Good race, Robert.
I'm going with, pending rain, strong bias early one, with
could be running late along the rail....at a price
Getting a little darker here in Canandaigua.
I'm 7 miles south of the track, and the skies that way are very cloudy, wind picking up. Cooooool outside.
Maybe I'll head out for the later races. |
could definitely add value to a ticket... I could see him working a trip at a price.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-22-2019, 01:53 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
could definitely add value to a ticket... I could see him working a trip at a price. |
That would be my overlay. Has capacity to stalk a potential contested pace, while still racing well ahead of the other beneficiary of a challenging pace, your #7. In fact he did just that in 9/5 race. Public roughly 7-10% chance, I would assign him 15-16% chance of win.
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10-22-2019, 03:07 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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10-22-2019, 03:23 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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10-22-2019, 03:30 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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10-22-2019, 03:32 PM
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#9
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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practice for Breeders Cup
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-22-2019 at 03:34 PM.
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10-22-2019, 03:40 PM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,869
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"There he goes!" 
Gotta love Tony!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-22-2019, 03:44 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Interesting race. 11 $5k claimers going 1m70 for $10K
watch out for scratches and track condition
THERE HE GOES 3/1
Drops in class. Last time was sent into an extreme early pace. Took the first turn hard as well. A sensible trip and he should contend or draw off. Good post position as well. He's a win bet at 5/2+, but I'd have to guess he'll take money and be a 'key' instead?? Tough to guess the public here and anticipate scratches.
FLOYD UNGER 7/2
Drops in class for Englehart. 'Nuff said. Respect.
BASE JUMPER 8/1
Really 'fun' deep closer. Class a question, but continues these physics defying late rallies from wayyy out of it. Oscar Gomez up on this horse for the first time in visible (last 10pps) history, and Gomez is himself an expert with closer types. His bris stats/roi are surprisingly good. Considering class and the two droppers, I think it's more sensible to think of this guy as an underneath type.
IRON FORK 4/1
Underlay for a solid horse. I'm 'tossing' (barring significant scratches)
Terrible post position for a horse who ran a much-the-best 2nd last time. Stamina is a question after he hung badly in deep stretch last time. TBH I hope he gets caught wide and does some serious running before tiring, so I can bet him again in the future. I do not personally think he's a super attractive claim, but he is a 3yo NY-bred who isn't running for a supertrainer, and isn't much of a threat to graduate conditions today (he's at least competitive for one more check at current class).
potentially interesting action
pre-scratch betting
1w3pl?
on top in multis
/ exacta
/ posts1-8 / 50c Tri ($6)
/ posts1-8 / 'ALL' / 10c Super ($9.60) |
good work
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10-22-2019, 03:45 PM
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#12
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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slow Tuesday
Good Call on the , guys 
No doubt from the start that the had the measure of the
$3.10 PLC
$21.50 50cTri
$19.95 10cSpr (I was rooting for the in that photo for SHW!  )
even the exacta and win prices were surprisingly fair
I'll have to re-watch the to see if he got disadvantaged and will be an overlay next time
Cool race, I 'broke even' won a few $$, but some of you guys seemed to do well (Jay , Immortal, ...) Very nice to 'Cap a race!
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-22-2019 at 03:47 PM.
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10-22-2019, 03:46 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
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One more leg, Jay, would have turned a 5/2 tri return into a 5-1+ super tri return.
Last edited by dnlgfnk; 10-22-2019 at 03:49 PM.
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10-22-2019, 03:49 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Well good work guys. I’ll take a chalky $4 .50 tri paying $21.50
Need to resurrect that thread from about a year ago where we pick 1 race to delve into and handicap together.
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10-22-2019, 03:52 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
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Regarding #1 generating combined interest and small profits, would Dave (Schwartz) consider this "swarm intelligence"?
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