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10-15-2016, 08:25 PM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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More SI plays today:10/15/16
2BEL-6f Inner Turf-25K Clm
#3-Ima Wildcat +12 SI(101 lr) 16.40-7.70-7.30 (was 0/3 on turf)
10-Creaky Cricket:No SI(88lr) 5.80-4.00 (good turf record)
9-Special Selecion- +8 SI(87lr) 7.30 (good turf record)
Only two SI's in race with 9 entrants. The 3 has now won 5 in a row.
4BEL-7f Turf-40K Mcl
#1-Peculiar Sensation +8 SI(75lr) 11.60-6.20-3.70 (technically only SI horse)
10-Catapault Jack (+13 SI NQ)82lr 10.20-6.80 (36 days not qualified)
I passed this race because of three +SI horse all at 36 days since last race. A +13, +9, & +9 SI; so I wasn't too excited about the 1 going against them.
So the 1, 6, 7, 8, & 9 races were unplayable. Either maidens with no data, a Stakes race & the 9th was a total cluster of non qual horses on recency or more like declining speed.
On the plus side I managed to hit the 1st Bel using my brand of tote analysis, #6-You're To Blame-$6.00 win; and before leaving I played the 6th BEL with win tickets on the #2 and #1. I also boxed them both with each other and the favorite, #4. #2 won paid 14.20-7.10 pl. The #1 was closing on the stretch and got caught on rail, he finished a close up 4th. The favorite almost got the winner. #2 Plainview hadn't raced in 10 months but I saw several confirming factors telling me he was getting exacta and double action, plus he was 10-1 ML and first flash on board was 4-1, eventually rising to 6-1. I played 2 to win and place and 1 to win at 9-1. Exacta paid 74.50.
One final note: JJMartin on this very board ran some analyses at several tracks and said I'd be better to focus on turf when using Sp Improvement. Thanks JJ.
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10-15-2016, 09:48 PM
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#77
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Laurel (10/15/16) Sp Improv plays
4LRL-1-1/16M-Turf-25K Clm
#1 I.C. Lightning +8 SI(93) 21.80-9.00-5.60
5 Captain's Affair (2nd favor) 4.00-3.00
8 Unbridled Giant (no SI-EM$ fav) 2.80
Only one Sp Improv horse in a Turf race. Happens all the time, there was another +5 SI but it was NQ due to finished 6th 17-1/4 l's out; and a +4 NQ that was 5th 13-3/4 l's out.
5LRL-6f-MSW 40K
#6 El Areeb- +13(70) Won 7.20 Only one SI in race, plus top speed last race). If I can get 5-2 on such an obvious play, I take it.
8LRL-1-1/16M Turf-7500 Clm
Just showing types of races I shouldn't play-way too many SI's to separate.
#1 +20 SI (88lr)-20-1 ML : 4-1 PT odds, 2nd favor.
#3 +14 SI (87lr) 10-1 ML : 9-1 PT
#4 +6 SI (60lr) 20-1 ML : 21-1- PT-blah with 60 rating
#6 +17 SI/+10 SI(82lr) 10-1 ML: 9-1 PT, used two diff. races for comparison
#7 +8 SI (83lr) 20-1 ML: 64-1 PT
#8 +5 SI (82lr) 6-1 ML: 9-2 PT
#12 +12/+6 SI (88)5-2 ML: 5-2 PT-favorite-2nd lr. suspect so did a 2nd SI
I did not play this race, but wanted to. LOL. #3 won and paid 20.60. I write these examples in my notes just to retrain myself to pass races like this.
I realize my brand of handicapping is not for everyone. And I still occasionally do pace, ability times, form and class ratings. Will post more of these, even if it's just for my own learning.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-15-2016 at 09:54 PM.
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10-16-2016, 06:47 AM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Belmont Sp Improv picks for 10/16/16
R1-#4 +31 SI (102 lr) 77 drf rtng
3 +22/+9 (100 lr) 86/81drf rtng-do two comp's if 2nd l.r. questionable
1 +19 (85 lr) 77 drf
6 +1 (84 lr) 76 drf
R1-#5 +11 (88 lr) 81 drf rtng
4 +8 (84 lr) 71 drf
7 +9/+2 SI (89 lr) 74
3 +4/+13 SI (75 lr) 87 drf- real longshot
R3- #1 +10 SI (85 lr) 83 drf-+27 pace Improv-more on that later
5 no SI (83 lr) 90 drf (only 1 race)
8 +17 (69 lr) 74 drf- longshot & beaten 9-1/2 l's last race question
R4- #2 +12 SI (94 lr) 89 drf- Only 1 SI in race, but G3 Matron stakes-normally pass stakes, but showing the SI for reference
#2/4-1-3
R5-#6 No SI (86 lr) 79 drf -shows +14 Pace Improv
2 No SI-recency (89 lr) 84 drf-prob favorite
11 No SI (89 lr) 81 drf
7 +31 SI/NQ (75 lr) 84 drf-12-1/4 BL's which DQ Sp Impr.-real LShot
(This race looks to be real crap shoot)
R6-#12 +8 SI (93lr) 83 drf
1 +5 SI (96 lr) 85 drf
14 +14 SI-DQ 37 days (114 lr) 92 drf
3/9 both +3 (94 / 108 l.r. respectively)
R7- #6 +1 SI (78 lr) 83 drf-MSW-lot of 1st time starters=lookout. Good race to
do tote analysis.
#4 No SI-41 days (83 lr) 83 drf-should compete
R8- #4 +9/+18 SI (93 lr) 96 drf-Class ? & 6th track change in 8 races??
6 +10 SI (86 lr) 84drf
2 +4 SI/DQ-37 days (87 lr) 91 drf
9 No SI (90 lr) 94drf-speed figs say it should compete.
R9- #11 +12/+3 SI (83 lr) 85 drf-brief steady 2nd LR, so show 3lr compar too
#5 +11 SI (81 lr) 84 drf-not crazy about comparing 7f with 5-1/2f-real LS
12 +7 SI (84 lr) 85 drf-Sp Improv looks most legit
Having said this, the #1, 1A & 8 will take a lot to beat them.
1-8/5-11-12 for exotics.
No real standouts today. Someone said that the competition goes up on weekends.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-16-2016 at 06:49 AM.
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10-16-2016, 09:04 AM
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#79
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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DEL results 10/16/16-Sp Improv
R7- Alw O.C. -1m70yd
#3- Marrikech +22 SI (102 lr) Won 5.80 also made a middle move(MM) l.r.
8- +15 SI (100 lr) Place 7.20; Esp l.r.-wake up +21 Pace Improv
4- +10 SI (98 lr) Show 3.60 ; MM l.r.
2- +9 SI (98 lr) ran 4th
Exacta 41.20- 124.40 Triple 149.90 Super(granted not high prices, but SI had them in order)-This was certainly not Longshot prices (4-1) but Sp Improv picks out live horses at all prices.
R10-5000 Clm-1M
#9 Sterlings Dolly +22 SI: Won 28.40-16.00-7.60; MM in l.r.
#1A +16 SI ran 4th.
#6 +11 SI 7th-last race was 7th all p.o.c.-questionable Sp Improv
R8-Opt. Clm-1m70yds-Races to avoid playing
Three +11 SI's, one +9 SI, one +7 and one +3 SI. The +9 SI won 18.20, +3 Placed 11.60; & +11 SI showed 2.40.
Thinking of tightening up my qualifying rules in last race. Maybe horse should have either beaten half the field in last race and/or was 8 BL's or less. I think the 35 days still works, but if a high SI shows up at 36 or 37 days, I may include it.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-16-2016 at 09:07 AM.
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10-16-2016, 10:12 AM
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#80
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Belmont Sp Improv picks for 10/16/16
R1-#4 +31 SI (102 lr) 77 drf rtng
3 +22/+9 (100 lr) 86/81drf rtng-do two comp's if 2nd l.r. questionable
1 +19 (85 lr) 77 drf
6 +1 (84 lr) 76 drf
R1-#5 +11 (88 lr) 81 drf rtng
4 +8 (84 lr) 71 drf
7 +9/+2 SI (89 lr) 74
3 +4/+13 SI (75 lr) 87 drf- real longshot
R3- #1 +10 SI (85 lr) 83 drf-+27 pace Improv-more on that later
5 no SI (83 lr) 90 drf (only 1 race)
8 +17 (69 lr) 74 drf- longshot & beaten 9-1/2 l's last race question
R4- #2 +12 SI (94 lr) 89 drf- Only 1 SI in race, but G3 Matron stakes-normally pass stakes, but showing the SI for reference
#2/4-1-3
R5-#6 No SI (86 lr) 79 drf -shows +14 Pace Improv
2 No SI-recency (89 lr) 84 drf-prob favorite
11 No SI (89 lr) 81 drf
7 +31 SI/NQ (75 lr) 84 drf-12-1/4 BL's which DQ Sp Impr.-real LShot
(This race looks to be real crap shoot)
R6-#12 +8 SI (93lr) 83 drf
1 +5 SI (96 lr) 85 drf
14 +14 SI-DQ 37 days (114 lr) 92 drf
3/9 both +3 (94 / 108 l.r. respectively)
R7- #6 +1 SI (78 lr) 83 drf-MSW-lot of 1st time starters=lookout. Good race to
do tote analysis.
#4 No SI-41 days (83 lr) 83 drf-should compete
R8- #4 +9/+18 SI (93 lr) 96 drf-Class ? & 6th track change in 8 races??
6 +10 SI (86 lr) 84drf
2 +4 SI/DQ-37 days (87 lr) 91 drf
9 No SI (90 lr) 94drf-speed figs say it should compete.
R9- #11 +12/+3 SI (83 lr) 85 drf-brief steady 2nd LR, so show 3lr compar too
#5 +11 SI (81 lr) 84 drf-not crazy about comparing 7f with 5-1/2f-real LS
12 +7 SI (84 lr) 85 drf-Sp Improv looks most legit
Having said this, the #1, 1A & 8 will take a lot to beat them.
1-8/5-11-12 for exotics.
No real standouts today. Someone said that the competition goes up on weekends.
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Laurel 10/16/16-Sp Improv plays
R2-10000 Md(10-9) 1-1/16M
#2 Claravoyant +18/+12 SI(64 lr) 2nd race off layoff; MM last race; bug allow.
4 Secondhand Angel +9 SI (62 lr); MM lr
5 Ambling Along +6 SI (64 lr); MM lr; entered 10/14 @ MED
7 Weatherurnot +4 SI (66 lr)-top; Esp pattern l.r.-Class
R3-7500 Clm 5-1/2f Turf(7.5-6.5)
#1 Sally Oh Sally +23 SI (84 lr) MM l.r.
4 Alwaysacontest -No SI, (63 lr) Esp pattern+ getting bug allow(Gasman angle.
6 Stormy Mistress +4 SI (77 lr) good Esp; Checked in stretch l.r.
9 Cracking Good Pins-No SI; (82 lr)-sty 1/2-6w l.r.; turf specialist; entered 10/15
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10-16-2016, 10:58 AM
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#81
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Add PARX 10/16/16 to above Picks
R1- 7500 Clm 1M70Yd
#1 Carolina Dreams +11/+8 SI (79 lr) MM l.r.-comp. to 3rd & 4th LR back
12 Outpatient +5 SI (59 lr) spd rating not too inspiring
10 Kathywithak No SI in equibase ratings but +12 using DRF's; MM (61 l.r.)MM
4 Belle of Bowdoin No SI in eq-base rating but +8 " " ; MM (62 lr)
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10-16-2016, 06:08 PM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Belmont Sp Improv picks for 10/16/16
R1-#4 +31 SI (102 lr) 77 drf rtng Won 12.00-6.50
3 +22/+9 (100 lr) 86/81drf rtng-do two comp's if 2nd l.r. questionable
1 +19 (85 lr) 77 drf
6 +1 (84 lr) 76 drf Place 10.00-4.60
Exacta 89.50
R2-#5 +11 (88 lr) 81 drf rtng Showed 2.50
4 +8 (84 lr) 71 drf
7 +9/+2 SI (89 lr) 74
3 +4/+13 SI (75 lr) 87 drf- real longshot
R3- #1 +10 SI (85 lr) 83 drf-+27 pace Improv-more on that later
5 no SI (83 lr) 90 drf (only 1 race)Placd 4.70
8 +17 (69 lr) 74 drf- longshot & beaten 9-1/2 l's last race question Showed 9.00; 30-1 p.t. odds
R4- #2 +12 SI (94 lr) 89 drf- Only 1 SI in race, but G3 Matron stakes-normally pass stakes, but showing the SI for reference
#2/4-1-3 #3 won, paid 27.20; #4 placed 2.60; Exacta 70.00
R5-#6 No SI (86 lr) 79 drf -shows +14 Pace Improv
2 No SI-recency (89 lr) 84 drf-prob favorite SCRATCHED
11 No SI (89 lr) 81 drf Place 5.00
7 +31 SI/NQ (75 lr) 84 drf-12-1/4 BL's which DQ Sp Impr.-real LShot
(This race looks to be real crap shoot)To top it off, I totally missed the #5 was a +5 Sp Improv last race and only SI in the race. He won and paid 9.60. It still counts as a loss.
R6-#12 +8 SI (93lr) 83 drf
1 +5 SI (96 lr) 85 drf Place 11.60
14 +14 SI-DQ 37 days (114 lr) 92 drf #14 Scratched
3/9 both +3 (94 / 108 l.r. respectively)#3 won 8.20 & #9 scratched
Only the 12, 1, & 3 left after scratches. Exacta paid 102.50
R7- #6 +1 SI (78 lr) 83 drf-MSW-lot of 1st time starters=lookout. Good race to
do tote analysis.
#4 No SI-41 days (83 lr) 83 drf-should compete Placed 4.80
R8- #4 +9/+18 SI (93 lr) 96 drf-Class ? & 6th track change in 8 races??
6 +10 SI (86 lr) 84drf
2 +4 SI/DQ-37 days (87 lr) 91 drf
9 No SI (90 lr) 94drf-speed figs say it should compete. All four of these were non-competitive
R9- #11 +12/+3 SI (83 lr) 85 drf-brief steady 2nd LR, so show 3lr compar too
#5 +11 SI (81 lr) 84 drf-not crazy about comparing 7f with 5-1/2f-real LSWon and paid 39.20-15.00-9.00
12 +7 SI (84 lr) 85 drf-Sp Improv looks most legit
Having said this, the #1, 1A & 8 will take a lot to beat them.
1-8/5-11-12 for exotics. Playing this exacta box as I showed paid $250.50. The 1 placed 6.20
No real standouts today. Someone said that the competition goes up on weekends.
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results above
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10-16-2016, 08:08 PM
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#83
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Laurel 10/16/16-Sp Improv plays
R2-10000 Md(10-9) 1-1/16M
#2 Claravoyant +18/+12 SI(64 lr) 2nd race off layoff; MM last race; bug allow.Placed 2.60
4 Secondhand Angel +9 SI (62 lr); MM lr
5 Ambling Along +6 SI (64 lr); MM lr; entered 10/14 @ MED
7 Weatherurnot +4 SI (66 lr)-top; Esp pattern l.r.-Class Won 7.60-2.40; I have an old data file for hundreds of Mdn. Claimers where the top LR speed figure wins. Whenever I can get 5-2 on these, I take it. Surprisingly many are double digit. Many more are odds-on to 8/5.
R3-7500 Clm 5-1/2f Turf(7.5-6.5)
#1 Sally Oh Sally +23 SI (84 lr) MM l.r.Won 7.80-3.80
4 Alwaysacontest -No SI, (63 lr) Esp pattern+ getting bug allow(Gasman angle. Scratched
6 Stormy Mistress +4 SI (77 lr) good Esp; Checked in stretch l.r.Was 2nd at head of the stretch, then faded.
9 Cracking Good Pins-No SI; (82 lr)-sty 1/2-6w l.r.; turf specialist; entered 10/15 The 9 was getting unusual double and exacta action, but it didn't materialize.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-16-2016 at 08:11 PM.
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10-16-2016, 08:23 PM
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#84
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Add PARX 10/16/16 to above Picks
R1- 7500 Clm 1M70Yd
#1 Carolina Dreams +11/+8 SI (79 lr) MM l.r.-comp. to 3rd & 4th LR backPlaced 3.20
12 Outpatient +5 SI (59 lr) spd rating not too inspiringWon paid 48.40-14.00-9.00; I downgraded her Sp Improv from+27 l.r. to +5 because 2lr and 3lr looked atrocious.
10 Kathywithak No SI in equibase ratings but +12 using DRF's; MM (61 l.r.)MM
4 Belle of Bowdoin No SI in eq-base rating but +8 " " ; MM (62 lr) Showed 5.40
Exacta paid 167.20, Triple paid 478.30
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..results above
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-16-2016 at 08:24 PM.
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10-16-2016, 10:27 PM
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#85
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
..results above
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Add PARX 10/16/16 to above Picks
R1- 7500 Clm 1M70Yd
#1 Carolina Dreams +11/+8 SI (79 lr) MM l.r.-comp. to 3rd & 4th LR backPlaced 3.20
12 Outpatient +5 SI (59 lr) spd rating not too inspiringWon paid 48.40-14.00-9.00; I downgraded her Sp Improv from+27 l.r. to +5 because 2lr and 3lr looked atrocious.
10 Kathywithak No SI in equibase ratings but +12 using DRF's; MM (61 l.r.)MM
4 Belle of Bowdoin No SI in eq-base rating but +8 " " ; MM (62 lr) Showed 5.40
Exacta paid 167.20, Triple paid 478.30
R3-1-1/2M-MSW
#1 Summer Evening +14-DQ 38 days.
#7 Cape Cod Tide +19 SI (68 lr) MM last race; Won 14.60-6.20-only real SI in race.
#4 8/5 Favor in race ran second. Exacta w/fav 114.15.
R10-6-1/2f -7500 Clm
#9 Chubby Who Who +6 SI (73 lr) MM l.r.- Won 20.80-9.20-6.80
#11 Speed Running Wild +4 SI (67 l.r.) MM l.r. Place 23.60 at 30-1 odds
#10 was +3 SI (62 lr) w/no MM fin. 8th
#8 was +2 SI MM (62 l.r) fin. 10th 3rd at 1/4 mile and dueled to the stretch.
Exacta paid $320.60 with only 3 real SI's in race
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-16-2016 at 10:30 PM.
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10-17-2016, 05:34 AM
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#86
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,139
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Good Job!
Good Job!
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10-18-2016, 07:32 PM
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#87
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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2nd race at Parx today(10/18/16) made picks on PARX 2 thread pre race.5000 Clm 1m70y(input from phone at OTB
#6 North Ocean-was purely a tote analysis pick while at OTB-38 days-60 Sp Rtg One note about some of my tote picks, when their PP's don't support the undue tote action, I see that as a big positive. May happen on about 1/6 tote picks that don't jive. He was also 10-1 ML
#10 Nick's Posse-+17 Sp Improv (77 l.r.) & MM l.r.
#8 Favor Factor +9 (80 l.r.) MM l.r.
#2 Andrew L -no SI, 2 mo. layoff, (89 l.r.)-included for his speed.
Results:
6 North Ocean 11.20- 7.00-4.00(WTW)
8 Favor Factor 5.20-3.40
10 Nick's Posse. 7.80
Pay offs: $2.00 Exacta (6-8) Paid: $52.20 , $2.00 Trifecta (6-8-10) Paid: $478.40
I only stayed for 4 races, had to pick up granddaughter at elem. school. Handicapped the rest of program in their parking lot and input from my phone. It showed, if you look at Parx 2 thread. I did bet the 9 in the 10th to win before leaving and a 6-9 ex. box. 9 won paid 8.20, missed exacta.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-18-2016 at 07:37 PM.
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10-22-2016, 09:26 PM
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#88
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Md. Million Day-Laurel-10/22/16
I'm showing how Speed Improvement would have fared on the Md. Million Day. As I said in my original write-up, Stakes and High priced handicaps aren't my preference for using SI to find a longshot. But I do this mostly for my own entertainment and see if it can modified to improve finding Spot-longshots in higher class races as well the lower levels.
R1: 1-1/16M-Turf; MSW 50K Purse
#3 +14 SI (74 l.r.), MM(middle move)-4th
#6 +5 SI (71 lr) , MM-nada
R2-1M-Hcp-50K
#1 +5 SI (68 lr), MM
#2 +10 SI (74 lr)-Place 4.20
#7 +7 SI (84 lr)-MM
#8 +6 SI (65 lr)-mild MM-4th
(just a note, I prefer to see a +5 difference or only one big SI. Today's card has brought lots of improving horses, which is unusual, but it happens more on weekends)
R3-6f-Name Hcp/Stake-100K
#3 +5 SI (71 lr) MM
#8 +29/-2 SI (62 lr)-MM-2nd l.rc questionable effort. 7-9-8-8 by 25 l's??
#10 +6 SI (60 lr)-MM-8.40 show
R4-6f -name Stk-100K
#4 +44/+8 (73 l.r.) MM, 2nd l.r. 5f & last race 1M. +40's & +50's SI are suspect- very tentative play.
#9 +3 SI (67 lr) MM
#11 +3 SI (60 lr) MM; 8.20 show
I didn't play a Sp Improv. in this race, but had the $15.00 winner based on tote play. Still refining my skills at that game as well. He was a 2nd time starter.
R5- 1-1/8M Tf- Stk-125K
#3 +18 SI (103 lr)-MM, l.r. 1m70: 2n l.r. 6f-T-eye test says filly is imprvng.
#4 +4 SI (84 lr)-MM
#7 +6 SI (81 lr)-MM-35 days
R6-1M-Hcp-50K(14 horses-Wild West)
#3 +4/+5 SI (76 lr) MM-was an SI winner for me back in JUL
#5 +17 SI (84 lr) MM, last 2 rcs both at 7f-good
#6 +22/4 SI (72 lr), last 2 rcs 1M, but 2lr effort ? last x 19ls @ 6250 CLM??
#12 +11 SI (91 lr)-MM looks to be one of fav.s
#13 +16 SI (87 lr)-MM-2nd, 3rd &4th l.r. questionable-went back 5 races?
#14 +11 SI (85 lr)-ESP_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _
I Dq'd #6's SI after review He was 11 BL's last race. I've been considering tightening my BL's back to 10 or even 8 l's. but haven't done that yet. The 13 was also questionable. That leaves the 5-12-14-3. In truth I passed this race. Results: Who Stole My Sock, #5 won $83.60-30.60-11.60.....#12 showed. The place horse was 2nd favorite and steadied 3 different times to lose by a neck while racing seven wide.
R7-1M Tf- Stk-125K
#8 +5 SI (91 lr) Esp
#11 +9 SI (101 lr) MM
R8-6f- name Hcp-100K
#2 +11 SI (94 l.r)MM/Esp Won 15.00-3.60
#3 +7 SI (90 lr) MM Show 4.40
R9 7f-name HCP 100K
#1 +18 SI (76 lr) MM
#2 +7 SI (83 lr) MM
#7 +15 SI (81 lr) MM
#8 +15 SI (92 lr) MM
too many closely matched contenders, none of them hit the board.
R10- 1-1/8M Stk-150K
#7 +7 SI (103 lr) MM show 2.40
there were two other SI's both scratched
R11-1-1/16M Tf-MSW 50K
#1 +6 SI (86 lr) MM-2.60 place
#4 +12 SI (71 lr) MM
#8 +13 SI (83 lr) MM
#9 +2 SI (71 lr) MM -6.80 show.
FTS won and paid 62.80
These are primarily spot plays and you can see it's more miss than hit. When they hit it's frequently a double digit payoff. Bombs like Race 6 are unusual, and I laid off that race thinking my judgement was correct. I also want to repeat that during the week days, it's not unusual to have a 6 or 8 horse field and only one Sp Improv horse in the field, and 4-1 odds and higher is not unusual. The best plays like this often finished 4th or 5th in their last race.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-22-2016 at 09:41 PM.
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10-29-2016, 06:19 AM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Mother of all Spot Plays
Here's the type of Speed Improvement SPOT plays that stand out using this method. When you have only one real big SI play in a race, or one with a huge difference compared to other SI's, that are not double digit.
6th @Belmont(10/28/16)-6f(Inner Turf)-Alw 62000N1X
#1-6-1ML-Esther the Queen-no SI, good early speed l.r.
#2/#3-scratch
#4-3-1 ML-Day After Day-2+mo.layoff-1/1 favorite
#5-5-1ML- Ametrine +3 SI,Esp pattern
#6-15-1 ML-Arietta no SI-won l.r.
#7-20-1 ML-Given Fire-4 mo. layoff
#8-8-1 ML-For Later +4 SI -Middle move 8-1/4 BL down to 4-3/4 BL
#9-20-1 ML-Krista Persona +19 SI, Esp pattern-21.7% Trainer win rate
#10-2-1 ML-B Three-no SI-fav. l.r.-good trainer
#11-10-1 ML-Jersey's Kitten +1 SI l.r-MM l.r. 5-1/2 dwn to 3-1/2 BL's
So we have #9 @ +19 SI , and three others at +3, +4, & +1 SI. A +15 difference.
#9- Won paid 70.00-23.60-11.60
#6 placed 20.60
#5 showed 6.80
In all truthfulness, I only put #9 4th in my Bel picks yesterday.
2nd example at Laurel, again yesteday(10/28). This is more typical for ONE spot play in the race.
9th race Laurel-1-1/16M-Turf-Claiming 35000(35-30)
#1 thru #4-No SI,
#5-10-1 ML-How's Your Sugar-+12 SI, MM l.r.-won by 2-1/2 l'r-good trainer
#6, #8, #9-no SI
#10 9-5 ML-Enjoy the Show +1 SI, MM l.r.-2nd l.r. had an incident of broke thru gate pre-race, but horse still ran 3rd by 1-1/4, so I let SI stand. Favorite
#14 3-1 ML-Silver Romeo-no SI, up close all p.o.c. last race, contender
This is the type preferred; only one real Sp Improv horse in the race.
Results: #5 won-13.00-5.60
#10 place 3.80
#2 show 7.60 5/10 exacta with favorite: 66.00
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-29-2016 at 06:22 AM.
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10-29-2016, 09:07 AM
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#90
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 102
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Speed Improve.
Good luck Trace.
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