Andy Beyer: Zenyatta's fast, but doesn't belong in racing's pantheon

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by nijinski

That pace scenario can happen on any surface .

The surfaces themselves are are totally different .

Yes, the pace scenario where superior horse overcomes inferior can happen and does happen on any surface.

(not seen anyone state the surfaces were the same btw)

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

Anyone that could find anything impressive about the 2010 Apple Blossom is probably a bit delusional at this point. It was a workout against sub-tomato cans.

You answered this a little differently than I expected. That's one of the great things about bouncing ideas and questions off of other people with a great deal of insight into the game.

I was kind of expecting an "A" or "B" answer and my anticipation was framed a certain way...

I had never considered that someone could answer "C"

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by cj

CH,

You have to know there is virtually no reason for anyone to ship to California to race in those filly and mare races. For one, Zenyatta is there, and two, the purses just aren't that great. I always thought the connections of "great" horses sought out challenges and tried to prove greatness. Instead, they seem to just hope somebody writes it a few times...and no, this isn't just about Zenyatta.

Sure, everyone loves that sort of thing. I started a damn Facebook page to try to get her out of California, of course I wanted her to take more challenges. I'm just saying it's a two way street, her challenge was to leave, everyone elses challenge was to come in -- and neither really happened. Just as unfortunately, no one showed up when she did leave this year (and no I'm not even talking about Rachel. I mean ANYONE. Certainly disappointing as a fan.)

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You're damn right they should be stripped of their graded status. What happens when a Graded turf race is forced onto the mud because of inclement weather? Oh, that's right, it loses its graded status, does it not?

But all these former graded dirt races are switched to AWS, and magically they keep their graded status. They should have been stripped and forced to EARN their graded status back.

I dont see the logic in that, you're missing the reason behind why they are stripped... the end result are horses running in a race on a surface they didnt sign up for, take the best turf runners that gathered for the stake and run them in the mud?... doesnt prove much, proves who of those turf horses liked the mud... not to mention the number of scratches may play a factor...

BUT, you have horses entering AW stake races KNOWING it is run on AW, no excuse, you get the best field over that surface together for that race, with no hidden surprises or late surface change.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

I dont see the logic in that, you're missing the reason behind why they are stripped... the end result are horses running in a race on a surface they didnt sign up for, take the best turf runners that gathered for the stake and run them in the mud?... doesnt prove much, proves who of those turf horses liked the mud... not to mention the number of scratches may play a factor...

BUT, you have horses entering AW stake races KNOWING it is run on AW, no excuse, you get the best field over that surface together for that race, with no hidden surprises or late surface change.

They are running on a surface which did not lead to it being awarded the grading in the first place. Sure enough, that is exactly what happens with rubber tracks. The grade was given when the races were dirt, but just carried over to rubber, which is foolish in my opinion. It will look even worse when they are gone a few years down the line.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I like it when I hit the end of a thread and when I hit the BACK<-- button, the list drops down out the monitor and onto the floor and I still can't find the damn root forum that got me into this mess.

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by cj

Anyone that could find anything impressive about the 2010 Apple Blossom is probably a bit delusional at this point. It was a workout against sub-tomato cans.

The 2nd place finisher ran out of the money Saturday at Presque Isle.

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by cj

They are running on a surface which did not lead to it being awarded the grading in the first place. Sure enough, that is exactly what happens with rubber tracks. The grade was given when the races were dirt, but just carried over to rubber, which is foolish in my opinion. It will look even worse when they are gone a few years down the line.

To compare it to the turf to mud is foolish-Im glad you didnt argue that point. Suggesting they should have to earn their graded status back is understandable, but those graded stakes over AW easily pulled their weight in drawing the same caliber of horses, do you honestly think they were not the same caliber of horses????

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I like it when I hit the end of a thread and when I hit the BACK<-- button, the list drops down out the monitor and onto the floor and I still can't find the damn root forum that got me into this mess.

Too freaking funny. I laughed out loud.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Now hold on here a minute pardner...these Zenyatta backers...ain't they the ones claiming Zenyatta runs dem dare slow final times because of dem dare slow paces? Now you're telling me dat dare Personal Ensign race at Saratoga would have gone in a FASTER final time had the pace been slower?

Will wonders never cease?

PA...it is comments like these that belie CJ's and Dahoss's assertion that Rachel fans are better handicappers than the Zenyatta fans. Allow me to educate you as to the basics of pace handicapping, since your comment above proves that you haven't as of yet gotten a grasp of it.

This is what CJ meant by his post...which elicited your amateurish reply:

The Personal Ensign essentially turned out to be a match race between Rachel and Life At Ten...and in a match race, it is well documented that the horse taking a clear early lead holds a monumental advantage over the horse running in second, in the early going.

Since both jockeys were aware of the importance of the early lead in this race...they were reluctent to let each other get away with an early lead... which resulted in a contested, and quicker early pace than any of the two jockeys would have preferred.

As a result of the contested, faster than normal early pace, and given the possible distance limitations of the two horses in question...the latter part of the race practically collapsed...and the race was run in a very slow final time, which belied the abilities of the two horses involved in the early pace battle...Rachel's especially.

CJ meant - and I concur - that if Zenyatta were to be in the field, the race would no longer have been considered a "match" race, different jockey tactics would have been used, the pace would have been slower...and there would be no collapse in the late stages of the race, resulting in a faster final time overall.

It is no earth-shattering revelation that a softer early pace often results in a faster final time...the horses stay well within themselves in the early going, and have a lot of energy left for the latter part.

All this applies to DIRT racing...synthetics are an altogether different ballgame, and your post criticizing Zenyatta and her "backers" fails to take this into account.

In the synthetic route race game...NOBODY wants the early lead. The early pace is not slow...it is CRAWLING, and it remains so until the late stages...and that's when the serious running really begins.

But by then, of course, the crawling pace has made it impossible for the race to finish in a fast final time...no matter how fast the horses travel in the late stages. The dynamics of the race have allowed it to go too slow, for too long a period of time...and the race's final time is often no indication of the true abilities of the horses involved.

The two racing surfaces play out very differently...and your "blanket" reply above shows that you fail to realize that.

I hope my explanation helps...

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by the little guy

No, this is the comment that I was referring to...


It really is quite amazing, and this is only partly in jest, that the other owners and trainers have let this obviously slow horse pile up $6 million. This is quite an amazing phenomenon, this almost outlandish stupidity on display spanning YEARS.



She was allowed to pile up those earnings because the best horses were not eligible to race against her. Once again.....an important fact left out.

And, of course, only you and Beyer are fully aware of which ones are the "best" horses. As the record shows.

jdl

[Tom]

Originally Posted by chickenhead

It was actually made directly in response to Zenyatta ducking other fillies, by not running in other "better" F&M races...an important fact you left out.

I was merely pointing out that if Zenyattas F&M races are in fact so shitty -- its quite amazing no "good fillies" come to take them.

You know, like how history has always worked, when given years to work.

The one dirt race she showed up for, well announced in advance, was a golden opportunity for all these "great, fast dirt horses" to show up and prove her slow, but, oh wait, where were they? Well, some never bothered to enter, while others were still licking their wounds from being beaten by the second stringers. I guess we have to penalize her and call her slow because the current barometers of judging horses are pretty much limited to fast dirt races. That's ok, as long as you know your limitations.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Tom

The one dirt race she showed up for, well announced in advance, was a golden opportunity for all these "great, fast dirt horses" to show up and prove her slow, but, oh wait, where were they? Well, some never bothered to enter, while others were still licking their wounds from being beaten by the second stringers. I guess we have to penalize her and call her slow because the current barometers of judging horses are pretty much limited to fast dirt races. That's ok, as long as you know your limitations.

Tom, it was a race restricted to female horseys.

I know you just wanted to take another parting shot at Rachel....but remember.....you are supposed to be helping the Zenyatta camp....and not giving me more easy ammo.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

To compare it to the turf to mud is foolish-Im glad you didnt argue that point. Suggesting they should have to earn their graded status back is understandable, but those graded stakes over AW easily pulled their weight in drawing the same caliber of horses, do you honestly think they were not the same caliber of horses????

Some were, some weren't.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Tom, it was a race restricted to female horseys.

I know you just wanted to take another parting shot at Rachel....but remember.....you are supposed to be helping the Zenyatta camp....and not giving me more easy ammo.

Hey, someone has to pitch during batting practice. I just have a day off and time on my hands, sooooo, the water here looked nice.

Actually, I am bummed she retired. I LOVE watching her race. She is beyond discussion one of the great ones, but I don't base a bit of that opinion on times or speed figures. I base it on beating the boys three times, and just listening to the stretch call of the Woodward........second only to the 1973 Belmont. A milestone in racing history, IMHO.