Ask Andy Beyer

[mountainman]

Tricky definitions that I look at more in terms of heart and running style. Determination and deep stretch bravery are true determinants. And I would attribute a tendency to blend in with the competition more to a lack of tenacity than to some hard-wired herd instinct.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Tricky definitions that I look at more in terms of heart and running style. Determination and deep stretch bravery are true determinants. And I would attribute a tendency to blend in with the competition more to a lack of tenacity than to some hard-wired herd instinct.

Great observation. btw, did Mnr Casino take down your perspective link?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Tricky definitions that I look at more in terms of heart and running style. Determination and deep stretch bravery are true determinants. And I would attribute a tendency to blend in with the competition more to a lack of tenacity than to some hard-wired herd instinct.

There are many studies on the herd instincts of horses but that's a topic for another thread. What we agree on is that some horses habitually underperform due to (insert explanation here). Accordingly speed figures should not be given much weight for these horses.

[deelo]

Originally Posted by deelo

Dear Andy,

I mean, Andrew,

How did it feel on Preakness Day when Mike Watchmaker made you look like an idiot after you derailed the podcast for 20 minutes ranting and raving about the Derby DQ like a facebook comment lunatic. When Mike finally got you to settle down and focus on the present instead of past, Mike picked WoW then you rambled another 20 about how horrible he was going to run. Thoughts?

"you have -63 reputation points for this post" LOL

that podcast was the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard, Andy lost all his reputation points with anyone that heard it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by deelo

"you have -63 reputation points for this post" LOL

Sounds about right. Rep system gets it right again.

[deelo]

I'm just saying I expect a professional to get on a podcast and act like one. Not rant like a twitter feud lunatic while Mike struggles to keep him on the rails.

Sour grapes? jeesh

[deelo]

Also, a forum mod shouldn't act like baby. Sorry for whatever chord I struck with Andy I guess? Very weird, moving on now..

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Great observation. btw, did Mnr Casino take down your perspective link?

Not at all, sir. But the link on my Pace Advantage page no longer works. Just go to moreatmountaineer.com, click "racing," and scroll down to "point of view." Most, but not all, of my blogs are archived there. " The Darkest Mile" is my favorite. I just got a proposal to team with an artist and convert it to comic-book format. But they want changes that would much alter the original. And the compensation would be almost nill.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by deelo

Also, a forum mod shouldn't act like baby. Sorry for whatever chord I struck with Andy I guess? Very weird, moving on now..

LULZ

ps. just another boring troll

Oh, I know, I know, you're just SO OUTRAGED over this INJUSTICE done to you on this PODCAST that you were listening to for free, that you just had to come here and VENT over such a horrible thing...

LULZ indeed sir. LULZ indeed.

[classhandicapper]

The ironic thing about that Beyer Derby/Preakness analysis is that imo he may still be right about it.

War of Will got about as good a trip in the Preakness as a horse can possibly get saving ground sitting just off a fast pace on a day when horses were having some trouble rallying far outside on the turn. He got both a favorable flow trip relative to the leaders and a favorable path trip relative to the closers in a relatively weak Preakness.

I hated him in the Belmont off that race and left him off every ticket. Unfortunately, I didn't make a score, but I think his Derby trip was not as bad as some people think and his Preakness win did not vindicate their view. He's good, but imo he's not as good as some of the others.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I had no idea how strong these traits were in horses until I spent considerable time with a horse trainer. Not a TB horse trainer but a mustang trainer.

Interesting stuff, and something that Kerry Thomas has tried to perfect in his true nature of the Herd Dynamic, which I find great reading every year. The idea that natural tendencies cannot be taught, only managed. And to these he adds in things like sensory impediments, athletic tendencies, watching how a horse impresses him/herself upon the environment, or is impressed and positioned by it.

Of note one of the things that will really mess up a horse is stress. Emotional and psychological stress requires mental stamina, not just physical. He goes into this in depth in some of his reports over the years. Brilliant stuff.

[classhandicapper]

I don't doubt that there are herd tendencies.

You can visually see how some horses will consistently really dig in and try and other won't. However, I think a lot of it is physical.

One reason a horse will dig in and sustain the fight is that he's competitive, but another is that he actually has the speed and stamina to do it. Some other horse may be just as competitive, but since he's physically overmatched he'll get outrun and hit empty long before the others and not have the energy left to try when the real racing starts later. If the rider does try early, the horse will fall apart even worse later.

If you drop that uncompetitive horse down in class far enough, the demands of the lower quality race will be easier and he'll suddenly have the energy to finish strongly and look like a competitive horse against weaker.

[ReplayRandall]

So.....It always comes down to PACE....Highest sustained velocity, of the entrants in this specific race, crosses the line first....Sounds simple.

[Half Smoke]

I did the ask Beyer thing - my question was edited and Beyer answered

here is what appeared on the drf.com website:


"Q. My understanding of how speed figures are calculated is that the times of all races for the day are compared to the par of average times of races at the track for those levels.


If 7 of 9 races on a card are run faster than average, the track surface will be considered very fast. But isn’t it possible that the horses happened to be of higher quality on that day?


– S.D.


A. Some speed figures are calculated in the way you describe. Not ours. I did rely on pars when I was developing the figures in the early 1970s but quickly saw that this was a flawed approach – for the reason you cited. If the par for a race is 70, and three horses in the field have recently run figures around 70, but one of them wins the race by five lengths, do we expect him to earn a figure of 70? No. If the race was at six furlongs, where five lengths equal 12 points, the winner might reasonably have improved enough to run an 82.


We analyze every race by examining how the horses finished, how many Beyer points separated them, and what figures they had earned in their recent starts. Then we ask: “What winning figure for this race would be most consistent with the previous form of the top finishers?” The answer to that question is what we call our projection for the race. We compare the projection with the result of each race on a card. The average difference between the projection and the result is the basis of our track variant – the number that measures the inherent speed of the racing surface."

Andrew Beyer


I would be interested in hearing comments on his explanation



https://www.drf.com/news/preview/ask...racing-surface

[cj]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

I did the ask Beyer thing - my question was edited and Beyer answered

here is what appeared on the drf.com website:


"Q. My understanding of how speed figures are calculated is that the times of all races for the day are compared to the par of average times of races at the track for those levels.


If 7 of 9 races on a card are run faster than average, the track surface will be considered very fast. But isn’t it possible that the horses happened to be of higher quality on that day?


– S.D.


A. Some speed figures are calculated in the way you describe. Not ours. I did rely on pars when I was developing the figures in the early 1970s but quickly saw that this was a flawed approach – for the reason you cited. If the par for a race is 70, and three horses in the field have recently run figures around 70, but one of them wins the race by five lengths, do we expect him to earn a figure of 70? No. If the race was at six furlongs, where five lengths equal 12 points, the winner might reasonably have improved enough to run an 82.


We analyze every race by examining how the horses finished, how many Beyer points separated them, and what figures they had earned in their recent starts. Then we ask: “What winning figure for this race would be most consistent with the previous form of the top finishers?” The answer to that question is what we call our projection for the race. We compare the projection with the result of each race on a card. The average difference between the projection and the result is the basis of our track variant – the number that measures the inherent speed of the racing surface."

Andrew Beyer


I would be interested in hearing comments on his explanation



https://www.drf.com/news/preview/ask...racing-surface

I thought it was pretty well know that Beyer uses projections now, as do most people that make figures. Pars are so tough to do these days, they are actually nothing but projections themselves in my opinion.