Derby Undercard

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

But I love turf ... do you expect yielding?

JK Court just rode the winner in the 8th who won wire to wire at 35/1. He got interviewed and said the turf was softer than they wanted. It is listed as firm.


If you recall the Breeders Cup last year, it was a swamp. It wasn't soft. It wasn't yielding. It was a swamp. Chunks like dinner plates were coming up with every stride those horses were taking.



I'd fully expect it to be yielding on Saturday, and it will likely be listed as Good or Soft.

[Redboard]

Depends what happens Friday. Two straight days in a row is tough for any track.

[Tom]

Two earlier turf races off today...missed the numbers.

[jay68802]

Since we spent so much time on the Derby, concentrating on Races 9-12.

Race #9:

Social Paranoia 10/1


Race #10:

Mr. Money Bags 20/1

Race #11:

Sabador 20/1
Prime Attraction 10/1

Will use 9 horses in the Derby.

[taxicab]

It's almost like BC preview card.
Rain on the Churchill grass........inside is quicksand.
The toughest race seems like the 9th.
Favorites that don't look good to me:
6th: Marley's Freedom
9th: A Thread Of Blue
10th: Instagrand

Sneak plays:
6th: Emboldened
10th: Mr. Money

Kind of like the "other" Chad's in the 11th(along with Shug).

[clicknow]

I only have a few:

R6: Amy's Challenge #5
R8: 4,6,8 box
R9: 4 to win
R10: 8,10/8,10/6-7-9-11-15

[GaryG]

R6 Humana
EMBOLDENED

R8 Churchill Downs
UNCONTESTED

R10 Pat Day Mile
DUNPH

[Boris]

Hope to get the day started with Awesome Tracker in R3. Partial fit on a second race to the rail angle I have.

[porkchop]

RACE 1 PK 3 / /
PK 5 ////


GLTA

[LemonSoupKid]

My undercard picks for Churchill Downs

Early Scratches already: R4 FortinHill; R5 3 (Brie's Lucky Charm) 1a & 14-17; R10 15-Global Campaign; you know all of the rest already out


Race 3 -
Race 4 -
Race 5 -
Race 6 -
Race 7 -
Race 8 - ( live longshot, though Whitmore bolded)
Race 9 -
Race 10 - (? Instagrand odds, the bomb here)
Race 11 -
Race 12 - - focus on the 2nd group underneath

Best of luck!

[Immortal6]

After watching the speed just stop and having the two horses that end up 1st and 2nd come from 10 lengths off the pace I’m wondering if the speed bias from yesterday has reversed trend. Will be watching the next race carefully. Conquest Tsunami isn’t made for this mile distance imo but if he and the Baffert horse fade in the stretch and we see MBJ or King Z passing them easily in the stretch there could be some more evidence the track is tiring to front runners today.

[Immortal6]

Thirst for Life was about 3-4 lengths back at first call. The pace setter seemed to be lugging in and out in the straight. Closers and finish 3rd and 4th...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

After watching the speed just stop and having the two horses that end up 1st and 2nd come from 10 lengths off the pace I’m wondering if the speed bias from yesterday has reversed trend. Will be watching the next race carefully. Conquest Tsunami isn’t made for this mile distance imo but if he and the Baffert horse fade in the stretch and we see MBJ or King Z passing them easily in the stretch there could be some more evidence the track is tiring to front runners today.

the issue is the likely rain is going to change a lot.

I bet Tsunami, he is done as a race horse. American Anthem ran well but is a much better horse as a presser stalker.

[Immortal6]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

the issue is the likely rain is going to change a lot.

I bet Tsunami, he is done as a race horse. American Anthem ran well but is a much better horse as a presser stalker.

Rain could change things as it materializes. I just want to keep a running list of what I think the track is doing as the day goes on.

Race 3

Can’t tell if the entry will gun for the lead or sit back. Like the Surooj a lot here to sit a few lengths off the pace and capitalize in the stretch. The Stewart horses and as well as the off the big lay-off will be prices used underneath.

[Immortal6]

The sat 2-3 lengths off the pace setting and made his move around the turn and drew off to win. The pace setter held on for 3rd by the narrowest of margins