HONG KONG - SHA TIN - SUN 11-1-20

[Nitro]

Good evening to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’ll be posting my live selections for the early races & pre-race selections later on for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with ALL races on Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, I’ll be only posting live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) WinDutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Good Luck if you’re playing!
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[Nitro]

I won’t be posting any LIVE selections this morning.

Preliminary Selections for races 1 thru 10:

R#1-2000M C3 (10F)T….............7-3-5 W/ 2-1

R#2-1200M C5 (6F)T……............11-7-3 W/ 13-8-1

R#3–1200M C4 (6F)T…………...... 5-3-12 W/ 4-1-8

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…...........…6-4-2 W/ 1-13-5

R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T…..............3-6-4 W/ 1-9-10

R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T………….......5-1-14 W/ 9-7-2

R#7– 1000M C2 (5F)T……….…...…7-1-4 W/ 3-5-14

R#8- 1800M GR3 (9F)T………….….1-12-5 W/ 3-6-2

R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T….…..…....…8-11-5 W/ 4-3-1

R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T……..…...…11-3-10 W/ 4-9-14

[Nitro]

Results of Preliminary Selections:
Although there were many surprises, the results of the first 6 races were dominated by LIVE tote board activities between 7 and 4 mins to post.

R#1-2000M C3 (10F)T….............7-3-5 W/ 2-1

4-3-1-7– Dutch LOSS 124% Profit Margin - PLAYED / No action on the LS Winner #4


R#2-1200M C5 (6F)T…….............11-8-3 W/ 7-13-1

8-11-5-7– Dutch WIN 115% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $70.20 Quinella/ Lots of solid late action on the Winner #8 (11/1 to 6.4/1) / Plenty of time to make a Key swap


R#3–1200M C4 (6F)T…………...... 5-3-12 W/ 4-1-11

11-5-4-3– Dutch LOSS 60% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Massive Late action on the LS Winner #11 (17/1 to 6/1)/ Moved into Top 6 / $20.80 Quinella & $197.20 Triple BX & ($1,689.20 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!


R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…...........…6-4-2 W/ 1-13-5

12-7-11-4– Dutch LOSS 130% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Some late action on the LS Winner #12


R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T…..............3-6-4 W/ 1-8-10

8-1-6-3– Dutch LOSS 98% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Lots of solid Late action on the Winner #8 (9.5/1 to 5/1)/ Moved into Top 6 / $24.90 Quinella & $288.40 Triple BX & ($1,341.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!


R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T…………......5-1-14 W/ 9-7-2

11-1-13-3– Dutch LOSS 57% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Very Late action on the LS Winner #11 (10/1 to 5.6/1) / Too late to make a change


R#7– 1000M C2 (5F)T……….….…7-1-4 W/ 3-5-14

4-10-3-8– Dutch WIN 29% Profit Margin - PASSED / No action on the LS Placer #10


R#8- 1800M GR3 (9F)T…………….1-12-5 W/ 3-6-2

3-1-5-2– Dutch LOSS 48% Profit Margin - PASSED / $18.40 Quinella & $204.60 Triple BX & ($615.60 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!


R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T….…..…...…8-11-5 W/ 4-3-1

7-4-2-9– Dutch LOSS 67% Profit Margin - PLAYED / No action on the LS Winner #8


R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T……..…..…11-3-10 W/ 4-9-14

4-3-13-12– Dutch LOSS 168% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $72.10 Quinella