Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

1. No one anywhere on planet earth is advocating going totally back to normal to aggressively achieve herd immunity. Some people are advocating that we concentrate on protecting the most vulnerable and allowing the very low risk to go about their business as they see fit. That's how you can slowly reach the HIT rate, protect the most vulnerable, and limit the deaths and sickness. Me personally, I'd continue being hyper cautious.

2. We are going to reach herd immunity one way or the other. The virus will not go away. We will reach herd immunity via infections or infections + vaccines, but we are going to reach herd immunity PERIOD. It's just at matter of when, how, and how much damage we do in between.

3. The "1 in 10 people have antibodies" quote is the same out of date information that Fauci's buddies have been quoting. Those results are only as of July. It's more like 16%-17% now.

4. Again, we don't know what the HIT rate is, but 50-70% is not consistent with the improved models mathematicians have come up with and the data to date are saying. IMO, Fauci, the media etc... don't want to tell the truth on this because they are afraid people will let their guard down and cases will start rising. So they'd rather err on the side of extreme caution.

All "laissez faire" and minimal uncoordinated mitigation approaches in countries throughout the world,i.e the U.S, Brazil and Mexico have yielded worse results than those with more active scientific coordinated epidemiological approaches.

Notably, many Asian countries

Taiwan
Singapore
South Korea
New Zealand
Australia
Canada
Germany

You can not shield the elderly without a more comprehensive approach, as these countries have done.
......................
You just said.....

"but we are going to reach herd immunity PERIOD. It's just at matter of when, how, and how much damage we do in between".


Are you joking?

The "damage" is not beside the point.
Minimizing it; is the point

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

All "laissez faire" and minimal uncoordinated mitigation approaches in countries throughout the world,i.e the U.S, Brazil and Mexico have yielded worse results than those with more active scientific coordinated epidemiological approaches.

Notably, many Asian countries

Taiwan
Singapore
South Korea
New Zealand
Australia
Canada
Germany

You can not shield the elderly without a more comprehensive approach, as these countries have done.
......................
You just said.....

"but we are going to reach herd immunity PERIOD. It's just at matter of when, how, and how much damage we do in between".


Are you joking?

The "damage" is not beside the point.
Minimizing it; is the point

Cuomo wrote the handbook on how to "shield the elderly". That's all any country has to do. No masks. No social-distancing. No lockdowns. All governments just have to follow Cuomo's lead on how to protect the elderly.

[classhandicapper]

Are you joking?

The "damage" is not beside the point.
Minimizing it; is the point

When you finally wake up and leave La La Land you'll realize that totally locking down merely delays WHEN the virus will hit you again not IF it will hit you again - all while destroying your economy. It's not going away. Every country on earth will reach herd immunity either via infection or via infection in combination with a vaccine END OF STORY.

Which of course doesn't count all sorts of non economic collateral damage from lockdowns like extra suicides, lack of cancer diagnosis and treatment, lack of treatment and diagnosis of other diseases like TB and others that are now growing again, extra drug and alcohol abuse, extra spousal abuse, extra anxiety and depression etc.. Eventually everyone will realize that total lockdown CANNOT work long term because the virus is not going away and there is hell to pay for locking down too long.

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

I post a timeline of Dr Fauci's public statements starting with his discussion of the neeed for as virus in late January, and you pst a hit piece by a matchmaker???

Meet Professional Matchmaker Susan Trombetti And Change Your Life In 2020
https://exclusivematchmaking.net/abo...ti-matchmaker/


You are running on empty

really? apparently you have not seen Fauci much because besides saying what you posted, he also said basically the opposite.

you are probably used to that as democrat 'leaders' do the same, changing their 'views' depending on who they are talking to

[Tom]

Fauci has basically said Trump did not screw up the response.
No matter what BS hcap posts here.

Don't waste your time arguing with this madman.
If we had listened to HIS boy Joe, we would hitting a million dead by now.

FACT.

[hcap]

I am on Trumpite Fatigue leave. Harder and harder to take you automatolns
seriously after last night pitiful performance by your false king

Play among yourselves children

[Tom]

You sound like Biden.

[MargieRose]

Originally Posted by Tom

You sound like Biden.

Yes...condescending, name-caller and liar. He fits the bill.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by MargieRose

Yes...condescending, name-caller and liar. He fits the bill.

And won't answer questions.

[classhandicapper]

Here's the LA Times saying the largest study ever reveals that "super spreaders" are real and that most cases are passed on by only a percentage of all those infected. That in turns means the standard Herd Immunity math is wrong.

You may need a subscription to get to the full article, but the headline says it all.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...uper-spreaders

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Here's the LA Times saying the largest study ever reveals that "super spreaders" are real and that most cases are passed on by only a percentage of all those infected. That in turns means the standard Herd Immunity math is wrong.

You may need a subscription to get to the full article, but the headline says it all.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...uper-spreaders

More on this from The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndemic/616548/

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

I post a timeline of Dr Fauci's public statements starting with his discussion of the neeed for as virus in late January, and you pst a hit piece by a matchmaker???

Meet Professional Matchmaker Susan Trombetti And Change Your Life In 2020
https://exclusivematchmaking.net/abo...ti-matchmaker/


You are running on empty

Matchmaker SNATCHMAKER

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT SOURCE WE USE

I've have posted multiple items that have CONTRADICTED what you TOUT HERE over the last 6 months....my posts have been from ACTUAL EPIDEMIOLOGISTS but you don't care about that. They might as well have been links to something the garbage man wrote this morning.

Whether the links are from a MATCHMAKER or an EPIDEMIOLOGIST, your reaction will always be the same.

SO WHY BOTHER?

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Matchmaker SNATCHMAKER

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT SOURCE WE USE

I've have posted multiple items that have CONTRADICTED what you TOUT HERE over the last 6 months....my posts have been from ACTUAL EPIDEMIOLOGISTS but you don't care about that. They might as well have been links to something the garbage man wrote this morning.

Whether the links are from a MATCHMAKER or an EPIDEMIOLOGIST, your reaction will always be the same.

SO WHY BOTHER?

The problem with the internet age is there can be one or two crackpots whether they be MDs, epidemiologists, politicians, lawyers. etc, etc, etc. They will be cherry picked as the voice of reason, or the justification of dissenting points of view. Show me a consensus of epidemiologists that agree lockdowns are not beneficial to slowing the spread of COVID and I will listen.


I guarantee somewhere out there there is a career geologist that swears the earth is flat, there is probably an ex NASA employee that swears the moon is made of cheese. Those people and their expertise and opinion does not make those things facts.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

More on this from The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndemic/616548/

Yes, a new wrinkle but can you or anyone else explain specifically how the herd immunity threshold is changed? Other than it varies by various factors. And local;s

We knew before the Atlantic piece how to recognize super spreader events. This article and the earlier one seems to stress the differences between how the virus spreads.... homogeneously and heterogeneously.

However that difference has been included in previous epidemiological studies

COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00451-5

Not only that, but your Atlantic Article concludes...

"That said, overdispersion is also a cause for hope, as South Korea’s aggressive and successful response to that outbreak—with a massive testing, tracing, and isolating regime—shows. Since then, South Korea has also been practicing sustained vigilance, and has demonstrated the importance of backward tracing. When a series of clusters linked to nightclubs broke out in Seoul recently, health authorities aggressively traced and tested tens of thousands of people linked to the venues, regardless of their interactions with the index case, six feet apart or not—a sensible response, given that we know the pathogen is airborne.

....Could we get back to a much more normal life by focusing on limiting the conditions for super-spreading events, aggressively engaging in cluster-busting, and deploying cheap, rapid mass tests—that is, once we get our case numbers down to low enough numbers to carry out such a strategy? (Many places with low community transmission could start immediately.) Once we look for and see the forest, it becomes easier to find our way out.

Testing
Contact tracing
Separation and guaranteeing if necessary.

Continuing ongoing epidemiological surveillance is necessary.

Targeted prevention of super spreaders doe make sense.
I have no disagreement with that

[bpiets]

Very simply, those who are in gov. positions and get thier pay cheques do not worry ...and the wealthy political persons like Biden, clintons, soros, etc, and just well off folks really do not concern themselves and since polluted Nancy goes hair styling instead of seeing to survival packaging being sent to thier fellow American citizens is an abomination....lucky that mr trump is president and not the Clinton/ Obama / Biden / clowns... it is fortunate that many a person who is alive because of mr trumps lock down that some of these can vote for low life's in the Democratic Party...Americans should be very glad mr trump is over seeing the economy & company....Biden is just a " punch & Judy " clown for the swamp and left wing commies... sure which we had a mr trump and his administration for prime minister and company.... many a nation would love to have a mr trump and company running thier nation with the actions he takes to have the nation cut down on so many more serious problems that could have been the case had he not done what he did and is still working towards...an out standing president and he has been nominated to three peace keeping awards...Obama one for which he is still scratching his head about...