Your biggest Hurdle?

[Handiman]

For me it is the inherent personality trait that makes me have the NEED to be right. This has turned out to be a double edge sword basically. Since the need to be right in my selections, I continually test and test ideas. As a result I never bet a lot of money, so I never lose a lot of money. The other side of the blade has kept me from being a winning and/or Professional player.

A few years back I wrote a program and played with it for 4 months regularly betting nearly every day while playing with the Brothers (Ron and Don). I held steady breaking even at the end of the 4 month run. I was never way down nor way up during that time. I was relatively new to programming and didn't back up my work. When my laptop blew up and crashed I lost all my work and that program. I have never been able to recreate it Sadly.

Maybe one of these days I will get over the NEED and settle in accepting value instead. But again the Need to develop software that I can win with restricts me from using some one else's software and probably winning. I guess maybe it's not the horse racing I'm interested in most, but the solving the problem through software and research that comes out of my head and not someone else's.

Handi

[biggestal99]

I bet the exchange I lay and pick 93% losers.

My biggest hurdle is the 7% of the time I lose. I absolutely kills me.

Allan

[lamboguy]

my 2 biggest hurdles are overcoming the CRW and after the bell bettors. over all i am losing, but i am having a big 2 year old season so far this year. but yesterday i fell victim to the after the bell in the 4th race at Bemont yesterday. the horse went out of the gate at 3-1 and paid $6.80 at the cashier's window after beating the box.

[bpiets]

mine are not going track side or off track when 'i' know the horses that 'i' know will give an all out performance and bet them....lost many a big payoff that way over the years...espec. when there were no off tracks ...lol...just to tired after work or on weekends...

[jay68802]

When I started using Excel, I found that I was just betting what my programs said. Then realized that handicapping that way was good for a few situations, but not all the situations. Handicapping with Excel is very good at crunching numbers, but is limited in forecasting all the different situations that you run across on a daily basis. Now I am using it not only as a number cruncher, but as a supplement using the form. The information that it pulls for me is past race shapes (both pre and post race), pressure on the front, daily variants and bias's. With the added information I find I am able to tell the horses story more accurately, and am able to look past what just the numbers say.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by jay68802

When I started using Excel, I found that I was just betting what my programs said. Then realized that handicapping that way was good for a few situations, but not all the situations. Handicapping with Excel is very good at crunching numbers, but is limited in forecasting all the different situations that you run across on a daily basis. Now I am using it not only as a number cruncher, but as a supplement using the form. The information that it pulls for me is past race shapes (both pre and post race), pressure on the front, daily variants and bias's. With the added information I find I am able to tell the horses story more accurately, and am able to look past what just the numbers say.

I use Excel too, but I try to combine trip handicapping as well. Case in point (I suppose everyone has a once-in-a-lifetime horse, and this one was probably mine.)

On Jan. 5 of this year I was handicapping Tampa Bay for the following day, Race 10, a MSW on turf, 1 mile, fillies. I came across a horse named Axiom with only one lifetime start, a couple weeks earlier. I decided to look at that race. Axiom seemed poised and calm in the gate for a FTS. When the gates opened she wanted to GO; it appeared to me that the jockey kept a tight rein on her early. She was five lengths behind the two leaders in the first furlong in mid-pack. Coming around the far turn, though, she turned on the jets and pulled away from the trailing pack and finished 3rd behind the two leaders, still 5 lengths back...but she'd lost that at the start.

The Bris pps for the race I was capping confirmed what I thought I had seen. For today's race she had the highest LP rating of this field. By my Excel method I had her ranked 3/10. Her ML was 12/1. I was looking forward to this race. Her odds kept climbing as post time neared. When they hit 18/1 I placed a $10 win bet on her.

This time the jock didn't hold her back, but kept her within a couple of lengths on the outside. Sure enough, coming around the turn she hit the afterburners again, dueling the leader and pulling ahead at the wire. Her final odds were 19.8/1. She paid $41.60.

I only had a small win bet on her. I didn't play the exacta because of gutlessness. The place horse was the favorite, and was my top-ranked horse. The $1 exacta paid $95.70. It was a gratifying win, of course, but could have been so much more...as I placed the bet at the machine a small voice was telling me I should be going bigger on this, that another opportunity like this might be a long time coming...and I didn't listen.

So to the point of this thread...a lack of self confidence prevented me from hitting what could have been the biggest score I'd ever achieved.

And now to anyone who might know: what has happened to my little filly? I put her on my stable mail and have heard nothing. Her last race was Feb. 21 and I've not even received a workout notification.

Mule

[jay68802]

I understand your post, been there, done that , as some people like to say. In this game confidence is a must, but it can also be deadly to the bank roll. In 2010 I went through a period where I could not pick the winner of a one horse race. After a break, when I came back I was a little gun shy, and it cost me some money. A month later, I was on a roll, could not loose. Then with high confidence I blew $2000.00 in one day. The lesson learned is that confidence in your handicapping has to be there, but you have to use a detached approach to your wagering, that once in a while seems almost mechanical. But in the long run will benefit you.

[Mulerider]

Yes, I always try to stay detached when I bet and that's why I only bet the $10. But this one particular race felt different...as I watched those odds climb, for the first time since I started handicapping it felt like I really knew something that the public didn't. It's hard to describe. I'll probably never forget that race.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I firmly believe that a successful bettor, trader etc. must execute their wagers in a disciplined, unemotional manner with absolute loss acceptance. simple statement BUT a tall task indeed for the majority of players. waiting for the right moment to wager and wagering with confidence!!!