Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
When I started using Excel, I found that I was just betting what my programs said. Then realized that handicapping that way was good for a few situations, but not all the situations. Handicapping with Excel is very good at crunching numbers, but is limited in forecasting all the different situations that you run across on a daily basis. Now I am using it not only as a number cruncher, but as a supplement using the form. The information that it pulls for me is past race shapes (both pre and post race), pressure on the front, daily variants and bias's. With the added information I find I am able to tell the horses story more accurately, and am able to look past what just the numbers say.
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I use Excel too, but I try to combine trip handicapping as well. Case in point (I suppose everyone has a once-in-a-lifetime horse, and this one was probably mine.)
On Jan. 5 of this year I was handicapping Tampa Bay for the following day, Race 10, a MSW on turf, 1 mile, fillies. I came across a horse named
Axiom with only one lifetime start, a couple weeks earlier. I decided to look at that race.
Axiom seemed poised and calm in the gate for a FTS. When the gates opened she wanted to GO; it appeared to me that the jockey kept a tight rein on her early. She was five lengths behind the two leaders in the first furlong in mid-pack. Coming around the far turn, though, she turned on the jets and pulled away from the trailing pack and finished 3rd behind the two leaders, still 5 lengths back...but she'd lost that at the start.
The Bris pps for the race I was capping confirmed what I thought I had seen. For today's race she had the highest LP rating of this field. By my Excel method I had her ranked 3/10. Her ML was 12/1. I was looking forward to this race. Her odds kept climbing as post time neared. When they hit 18/1 I placed a $10 win bet on her.
This time the jock didn't hold her back, but kept her within a couple of lengths on the outside. Sure enough, coming around the turn she hit the afterburners again, dueling the leader and pulling ahead at the wire. Her final odds were 19.8/1. She paid $41.60.
I only had a small win bet on her. I didn't play the exacta because of gutlessness. The place horse was the favorite, and was my top-ranked horse. The $1 exacta paid $95.70. It was a gratifying win, of course, but could have been so much more...as I placed the bet at the machine a small voice was telling me I should be going bigger on this, that another opportunity like this might be a long time coming...and I didn't listen.
So to the point of this thread...a lack of self confidence prevented me from hitting what could have been the biggest score I'd ever achieved.
And now to anyone who might know: what has happened to my little filly? I put her on my stable mail and have heard nothing. Her last race was Feb. 21 and I've not even received a workout notification.
Mule