Risen Star Thoughts - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

OTM Al · 02-14-2005, 11:58 AM

Wondering about opinions of others on this race. Scipion was such a hype horse over the summer and the other top finishers were FG horses. My first thought after watching this one is that it may be a negative key race, especially as the previous race behaved exactly as I expected with the top 3 finishers. Not really sure though as Fair Grounds is not a track I would normally play. Do you think Scipion should be re-elevated to a genuine contender, or that we just saw something ala last year's Florida Derby?

ceejay · 02-14-2005, 12:46 PM

I think Scipion is too much of a 1-dimentional closer to warrant serious Derby consideration. If he shows that he can win from closer in, maybe. It is one thing passing 10 horses on the very long FG stretch: Quite another passing 19 @ Churchill.

Valuist · 02-14-2005, 01:11 PM

The field was very bunched at the end; not a sign that its an overly strong race. Both the favorite and Rush Bay were big disappointments. Had to think the race fell apart late for a horse to make up that much ground.

keilan · 02-14-2005, 01:49 PM

My thoughts on Scipion are much the same as ceejay’s Upside to this horse he gained some experience, should come out of the race very nicely and move forward again next race. He races with blinkers on now and may not get lasix until the Derby if he gets there. At this point I wouldn’t consider him to be THE Derby horse.

Maybe the best horse in the race was Electric Light who set the pace and finished 4th 2 lengths behind the winner. Iced Out looks to have received not the best of trips but I think he mostly just ran by tired horses late to finish 5th, these type generally disappoint when to much credit is given in these situations.

If I were part of the connections for Harlington I would be concerned, I’m sure a better effort was expected.

DerbyTrail · 02-14-2005, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keilan

If I were part of the connections for Harlington I would be concerned, I’m sure a better effort was expected.

keil..

Go to ESPN's racing page. You can see the Risen Star there. Harlington ran a sneaky good race. Third start, first ship, first stakes.

6 wide onto the backstretch.. 5w around the turn.. Knocked off stride a bit by Buzzard's Bay at the head of the stretch.. 6 path down the stretch and never lost interest.. Kept running the whole time and actually had nowhere to run anyway the final 100 yards. Wasn't hard used at all by Johnny V..

With the lost ground on the two turns, still within 2+ at the wire.. Think this effort goes a long way towards making him a "racehorse"...

And BTW.. Electric Light was very game. Ran a race similar to the one Funny Cide did at FG in the LA Derby. Looked done at the top of the stretch but found another gear for deep stretch. No match for the winner, but solid, professional effort..

JPinMaryland · 02-14-2005, 04:58 PM

"The field was very bunched at the end; not a sign that its an overly strong race..."

Might it also be a sign of a race meant for closers? I can sort of see Scipion being one dimensional type of closer. What is potential for upside? Anything in the pedigree suggest he can get 10f?

GMB@BP · 02-14-2005, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerbyTrail

keil..

Go to ESPN's racing page. You can see the Risen Star there. Harlington ran a sneaky good race. Third start, first ship, first stakes.

6 wide onto the backstretch.. 5w around the turn.. Knocked off stride a bit by Buzzard's Bay at the head of the stretch.. 6 path down the stretch and never lost interest.. Kept running the whole time and actually had nowhere to run anyway the final 100 yards. Wasn't hard used at all by Johnny V..

With the lost ground on the two turns, still within 2+ at the wire.. Think this effort goes a long way towards making him a "racehorse"...

And BTW.. Electric Light was very game. Ran a race similar to the one Funny Cide did at FG in the LA Derby. Looked done at the top of the stretch but found another gear for deep stretch. No match for the winner, but solid, professional effort..

A friend of mine uses the term "there are no trips in slow races", bad or good, and it definately applys to this race, its so slow the trip is irrelelvent, the Beyer is 89 at best, maybe as low as 85. If there was anything of any quality in this race they would have run faster.

keilan · 02-14-2005, 08:26 PM

GMB @ BP

While I think your friend makes an excellent point {there are no trips in slow races", bad or good,} I don’t think it applies to this race to the same extent if the race had been run at another track. I agree with Derby Trail here about the uniqueness of this oval, the composition of the track and the long stretch. The 1st call went in 46 3/5 which to my way of thinking could be considered a fast 46 3/5. I originally took the position following the race that the race was so unimpressive in almost very sense thus commenting { If I were part of the connections for Harlington I would be concerned, I’m sure a better effort was expected}.

I also agree that the Derby winner probably didn't race at Fairgroungs last Saturday

What I really need to do is watch the replay; I viewed the race live on my PC and haven’t had the benefit of watching the race again. If someone can post a link to the race it would be appreciated, I’m having trouble with the ESPN page.

keilan · 02-14-2005, 10:22 PM

Okay Derby Trail, I finally saw the replay (3 times). I liked the race pattern for Harlington very much and thought he would have been very good Saturday if he were any kind of racehorse. Granted he raced wide throughout the race and bumped at the head of the stretch but I think at least 3 other horses were better than him today. His numbers to date haven’t been impressive and whatever number he gets from Saturdays race can be upgraded some. Having said that, I’d suggest he needs to improve tremendously before he is considered a Derby threat.

Real Dandy received the best imaginable trip from the 9 post. The connections own Donnie Meche a night on the town. For those considering wagering on Real Dandy over the next couple months consider yourselves warned.

DerbyTrail · 02-15-2005, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keilan

Okay Derby Trail, I finally saw the replay (3 times). I liked the race pattern for Harlington very much and thought he would have been very good Saturday if he were any kind of racehorse. Granted he raced wide throughout the race and bumped at the head of the stretch but I think at least 3 other horses were better than him today. His numbers to date haven’t been impressive and whatever number he gets from Saturdays race can be upgraded some. Having said that, I’d suggest he needs to improve tremendously before he is considered a Derby threat.

Real Dandy received the best imaginable trip from the 9 post. The connections own Donnie Meche a night on the town. For those considering wagering on Real Dandy over the next couple months consider yourselves warned.

Keil..

Fair points.. A number of people have been talking about how slow it went. As a third career start, first ship, oddball track, I think it will move him forward. I'm not "rooting" for or against. I just get a feelingthe way Pletcher has talked about him that there is plenty of good things to come yet...

Dandy/Meche did get a great trip, and that was part of my point about at FG... Three New Orleans based horses or jocks were 2-3-4 in this race. Being local, or having local connections has always played a big role in the LA Derby series...

depalma13 · 02-15-2005, 11:06 AM

Summerly got a 96 for her win the Silverbulletday, so I'm guessing that Scipion got a 91 for the Risen Star.

OTM Al · 02-15-2005, 11:24 AM

89 I think was what it was. Honestly, after many of these comments, I'm going to stick with my initial impression that this may well be a negative key race, at least for those who continue on the trail. Scipion was talked about way too much in the summer for a horse that hadn't proven much and Harlington now, which always puts up red flags for me. I know this is a different track, but so is Churchill, Pimlico and Belmont, if you get my drift. Harlington may have been due a 'bounce' given all those conditions, but it seems to me that the really good ones keep progressing despite changes in conditions and an 89 for the winner is not near enough progression at this stage in the game for me.

DerbyTrail · 02-15-2005, 12:49 PM

Al,

Actually, if Scipion got an 89, that would be solid and healthy progression for him... May not be FAST enough to put him in the CD winner's circle, but he came into the race off an 82. Toss the Breeder's Futurity (he had no shot from the KEE #10), and he had a 77 in his 2nd start and a 65 in his career debut.

That means: 89, (72), 77, 65...

On Thoro-Graph, he had run 9, 9, 7, 14.. The Star may be about a 7-6. That's OK. Biancone says he's not a colt that can be rushed. He might be developing too slowly for May, but he is progressing and he's healthy. It looks like we'll see him back in the LA Derby. If he can get a triple digit Beyer and a another slight move down on the sheets, he'll be in great shape going into the SA Derby or wherever Froggie puts him for a final prep.

And also.. This was Harlington's THIRD career start. No reason to be firing all guns in February... Remember that his dad was 5th in the Trop Park Derby and 3rd in the FOY at this time in 1990 before winning the FL Derby.. Granted he was 6/2-2-2 entering his sophomore year... But Pletcher is, like Nafzger was, looking for the BIG efforts when it really counts.. and I have stopped trying to discount Pletcher in the big races...

OTM Al · 02-15-2005, 01:04 PM

Agreed. For Scipion it is a good leap forward. But not enough to show me he's made the majors yet. He looks like he could be a decent horse that will likely win a couple listed and G3 stakes, but probably not better than that. Being that its Harlington's 3rd race ever and the best he's ever done so far is an 88 tells me that Pletcher will need a small miracle with this one to have him ready and competitive for the Derby....the Haskell and Travers on the other hand he could get to if the hype is real. My point is that the next stop on the trail is going to be a whole lot stiffer for this bunch and none showed me that they are up to it yet...this is why I feel this one may well be a negative key when considering those horses that stay on the trail. Those that drop to allowance ranks or stick to little stakes will probably do just fine.

Valuist · 02-15-2005, 01:05 PM

The half in 46 3/5 and 6f in 1:11 and change but the final sixteenth in only 6.72. I think Electric Light did exert the most energy in the race. Scipion wasn't flying; he was catching tiring horses.