Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-15-2019, 10:25 AM   #1
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 219
Rep Power: 1 Gakiss2 will become famous soon enough
Trainer Past Performances

The idea came up in the thread on gaging a horse's 'fitness' based on the works and races recorded in the PP's.

And is also a tangential thought on the Trainer Superstars thread.

Is it worthwhile to think about coming up with a 'score' and/or a 'style' for trainers in much the same way we have speed and pace figures as well as Quirin Points and Running Styles for horses?

Perhaps there could be Byers like 'figure' based on a trainer's past success with getting and keeping horses in shape. I am sure it would be based somewhat on their Win percent and ROI but go a bit deeper. Also it appears that besides pure ability / resources, trainers take on different 'styles' or approaches. If those could be categorized then it might help us get more out of the 'moves' that are being made such as distance switches, layoff and work patterns and etc.

My image is different look to the Trainer section of the PPs. Instead of: Baffert wins 78% of the time with and ROI of -$0.18. It would say: Baffert Trainer Score 112, Style W 4 (Workout intensive, 4 points).

I don't know how Trainer's would feel about being rated in the same way their horses are but it seems fair game to me.

Also, specifically to the 'superstar' trainer question: Shouldn't we come to grips with the fact that (I'll pick on Baffert) Baffert is actually the executive of a large successful training organization and he has several top notch trainers working for him in that organization. Why can't we track on the actual person in charge of training the horse instead of calling them all Baffert horses?

Anyway, maybe a couple of juicy thoughts to kick off some discussion.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 10:45 AM   #2
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 93,184
Rep Power: 144 Tom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond reputeTom has a reputation beyond repute
I have two "PP" reports for trainers - one by horse,date, so I can see the moves he makes and the other by date, so I can see what he is doing right now. Very helpful.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 01:06 PM   #3
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,914
Rep Power: 8 TheOracle has a spectacular aura aboutTheOracle has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gakiss2 View Post
The idea came up in the thread on gaging a horse's 'fitness' based on the works and races recorded in the PP's.

And is also a tangential thought on the Trainer Superstars thread.

Is it worthwhile to think about coming up with a 'score' and/or a 'style' for trainers in much the same way we have speed and pace figures as well as Quirin Points and Running Styles for horses?

Perhaps there could be Byers like 'figure' based on a trainer's past success with getting and keeping horses in shape. I am sure it would be based somewhat on their Win percent and ROI but go a bit deeper. Also it appears that besides pure ability / resources, trainers take on different 'styles' or approaches. If those could be categorized then it might help us get more out of the 'moves' that are being made such as distance switches, layoff and work patterns and etc.

My image is different look to the Trainer section of the PPs. Instead of: Baffert wins 78% of the time with and ROI of -$0.18. It would say: Baffert Trainer Score 112, Style W 4 (Workout intensive, 4 points).

I don't know how Trainer's would feel about being rated in the same way their horses are but it seems fair game to me.

Also, specifically to the 'superstar' trainer question: Shouldn't we come to grips with the fact that (I'll pick on Baffert) Baffert is actually the executive of a large successful training organization and he has several top notch trainers working for him in that organization. Why can't we track on the actual person in charge of training the horse instead of calling them all Baffert horses?

Anyway, maybe a couple of juicy thoughts to kick off some discussion.

Hey Gakiss

I rank Trainers based on points and return on investment but the ROI has to be greater than 0

Sometimes I come up with Trainers with nice payouts across the board even though they may not have won their particular race

I’ve been toying with a Ranking system
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...44#post2452844

Looking at it this way led me to some great finds
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...25#post2452125

I missed Gargan at Aqueduct on the Turf twice but I’m waiting for him to strike again hopefully he will hit the board 2 or 3 more times before the season is finished!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 04-15-2019 at 01:09 PM.
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 02:40 PM   #4
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 219
Rep Power: 1 Gakiss2 will become famous soon enough
Trainer points

What was the method to assign the points to the trainers?

ROI makes a lot of sense but how about ROI when you are convinced the trainer has Win intentions. And then of course, know how to determine when the trainer has Win intentions.

I think I recall equibase having publically available trainer rankings but I think it is straight ROI or worse, win percentage.

Thank you for your help.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 03:06 PM   #5
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 8,513
Rep Power: 29 jay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to beholdjay68802 is a splendid one to behold
Only problem I see is that not all the changes a trainer makes are reported. More like only 25% of the changes you see. Not all works are reported either.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 04:46 PM   #6
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 2,924
Rep Power: 18 castaway01 is a splendid one to beholdcastaway01 is a splendid one to beholdcastaway01 is a splendid one to beholdcastaway01 is a splendid one to beholdcastaway01 is a splendid one to beholdcastaway01 is a splendid one to behold
I get what you're saying, but I'd argue that win percentage and ROI are the most important ways to tell if a trainer is effective at a "move". You could have a trainer who improves horses but doesn't have the stock to win, or you could have a trainer that wins at 35% on the drop but the average horse pays $4.40. While it would be nice to give credit to the (seemingly) skilled trainer who doesn't win, it doesn't really do you any good financially to do so, at least not in broad strokes.

Now granted, those 8% moves sometimes turn into 25% moves when you combine them with two OTHER moves, but I'm not sure how you would tell that from a rating. It's more something you have to dig (or program) to find.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 05:48 PM   #7
thaskalos
Adventurer
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 22,765
Rep Power: 55 thaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant futurethaskalos has a brilliant future
The most important thing to me is whether or not the trainer is able to improve upon a horse's performance after newly acquiring the animal...or if the trainer can keep a horse's form intact while placing the horse in different race situations than the horse has previously been exposed to. And I judge such "improvement" and 'form' not by things like trainer win% or trainer-tactic ROI...but by using speed/pace figures as a performance determinant. A horse's performance can improve substantially even if a horse LOSES the race...while a winning performance can sometimes be deemed to be a DECLINING effort. I want to know if a trainer can improve the horse FIGURE-WISE...and then it's up to ME to decide if such a figure-improvement will lead the horse to the winners circle.
__________________
"Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something."
-- Plato
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 08:33 PM   #8
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 219
Rep Power: 1 Gakiss2 will become famous soon enough
Rating the Trainer's ability to create improvement

I can't disagree but how to translate that ability into a score we can then take to that Trainer's next race.


The horse can't be judged independently of the trainer any more than the trainer can be judged (scored) independent of the horse.

Its all situational but can we use scores (figures) of horses and scores (figures?) of trainers to support the decision making process.

I really liked the thoughts on whether or not a trainer can take a horse to a new situation and support his winning effort as that should produce odds. I know I am hesitant when I see a long term sprinter suddenly taking on some classy Routers. In fact I have lost some bets that way, tossing the sprinter out then watching him wire the field.

Thank You for your input and advice.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 09:32 PM   #9
eqitec
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 180
Rep Power: 14 eqitec is on a distinguished road
Trainer Points

I use the trainer performance stats supplied by BRIS in the $1.drf data files. They supply as many as 6 stats, some of which ridiculously irrelevant and/or misleading.

For the stats which are useful, I've built analytics showing when trainer's performance for any reported attribute is N% higher than his/her overall winning %s (for at least X#starts.) Todd Pletcher's winning % with 1st-time starters might be 28%, but if that's not much different than his overall winning %, then it's no big deal.

Alternatively, if another trainer has an overall winning performance stat for 1st time starters = 28% AND their overall winning % is 10%, then that is a big deal. The variance between the 28% and the 10% are highlighted on my analytics (shown in the image) and scoring (not shown) is proportional to the size of the variance. The scoring for these attributes are then factored in to the other analytics for that horse.

Attached Images
File Type: png TAttr1to3.png (61.9 KB, 25 views)
eqitec is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 10:12 PM   #10
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 14,411
Rep Power: 41 Dave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to behold
You mean like these?



Better look...

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-22-2019 at 02:01 PM.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-15-2019, 10:22 PM   #11
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 42,441
Rep Power: 76 cj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant futurecj has a brilliant future
Formulator has customizable trainer past performances that show every running line for up to five years under all conditions and can be filtered to show the ones you want to see.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2019, 07:50 AM   #12
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 219
Rep Power: 1 Gakiss2 will become famous soon enough
Trainer PP

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
You mean like these?



Better look...
Dave

Yes, that is certainly in the spirit of what I am thinking of. If I understood it looks like it is a look at various forms of ROI based on the situation. I think ROI is an important part of 'Trainer Performance', I'm not sure its the whole picture. Imagine if we bet on horses based on ROI, even if it is a very detailed picture of ROI under different circumstances, and not anything else; like speed, pace, running style and etc. So not knocking what you have there, just thinking it could be considered more deeply. I am particularly interested in 'Style' or methodology and thinking it might be applied in an analogous way as we use 'Running Style' for horses. So just like that approach, we would have to wait for a data producer to start including that in their offering.

Thank You very much for your insights, I have used some of your products with some success.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-22-2019 at 02:01 PM.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2019, 07:52 AM   #13
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 219
Rep Power: 1 Gakiss2 will become famous soon enough
Formulator

Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Formulator has customizable trainer past performances that show every running line for up to five years under all conditions and can be filtered to show the ones you want to see.
I did not know that. Thank you, I'll check it out.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2019, 10:39 AM   #14
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 14,411
Rep Power: 41 Dave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to beholdDave Schwartz is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gakiss2 View Post
Dave

Yes, that is certainly in the spirit of what I am thinking of. If I understood it looks like it is a look at various forms of ROI based on the situation. I think ROI is an important part of 'Trainer Performance', I'm not sure its the whole picture. Imagine if we bet on horses based on ROI, even if it is a very detailed picture of ROI under different circumstances, and not anything else; like speed, pace, running style and etc. So not knocking what you have there, just thinking it could be considered more deeply. I am particularly interested in 'Style' or methodology and thinking it might be applied in an analogous way as we use 'Running Style' for horses. So just like that approach, we would have to wait for a data producer to start including that in their offering.

Thank You very much for your insights, I have used some of your products with some success.
I especially like that last part. ;-)

Thank you.

The key to using trainer stats is to see them from the 10,000-foot level.

What we do is to create a subset of the "angles" that apply to each horse, and then average all the data for each category of the subset.



What I show above (lower-left) are the "systems." At the top are the trainers in this race, and the bottom-right are the applicable categories (or angles) for this horse.

Thus, if you look in the top section, at the highlighted trainer, you see that the categories below together average 25 starts and 3 wins.

Of course, there are a lot more columns in the table.

Here's the key point...

Each of the columns is available as a HANDICAPPING FACTOR!

Thus, looking at the "systems" - each column (such as win IV or place IV) could be populated directly into a weighted handicapping calculation!

This has a lot pf potential for pushing winners to the top, which is, of course, the logical goal.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-22-2019 at 02:02 PM.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2019, 10:58 AM   #15
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 219
Rep Power: 1 Gakiss2 will become famous soon enough
Clarified

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I especially like that last part. ;-)

Thank you.

The key to using trainer stats is to see them from the 10,000-foot level.

What we do is to create a subset of the "angles" that apply to each horse, and then average all the data for each category of the subset.



What I show above (lower-left) are the "systems." At the top are the trainers in this race, and the bottom-right are the applicable categories (or angles) for this horse.

Thus, if you look in the top section, at the highlighted trainer, you see that the categories below together average 25 starts and 3 wins.

Of course, there are a lot more columns in the table.

Here's the key point...

Each of the columns is available as a HANDICAPPING FACTOR!

Thus, looking at the "systems" - each column (such as win IV or place IV) could be populated directly into a weighted handicapping calculation!

This has a lot pf potential for pushing winners to the top, which is, of course, the logical goal.

Thank you for clarifying further what the data means. I will certainly keep this approach in mind as I go forward. I feel your example does well at exploring percentages when the angle 'conditions' present themselves (e.g. distance switch, layoff, etc.).
Teasing out angles, trainer intentions, trainer motivation is an interesting and complicated topic.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-22-2019 at 02:02 PM.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Do you think Maximum Security should have been disqualified in the derby?
Yes - 48.91%
179 Votes
No - 51.09%
187 Votes
Total Votes: 366
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:52 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2019 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.