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Poll: What is your primary handicapping method?
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What is your primary handicapping method?

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Old 10-12-2017, 01:47 PM   #241
Whosonfirst
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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
I'm in a quandary to qualify About the Base on his Form, plus there's a 41 days off, but 3 recent works. In addition her recent lack of tactical speed has gotten her into traffic woes in 5/6 of her last races. With the drop from Sar, and her top class ratings, I'm leaving her for dirt and turf.

So for Turf I have them
(edit): Baronet would be a longshot play for ITM if it stays on turf

For Dirt my top two are the same:
The 's lack of tactical speed continued, and she had several openings but could not take advantage of them. My initial suspicions on her form were correct, even though I hadn't eliminated her. Baronet hit for $25.40-10.60-4.80.
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Last edited by Whosonfirst; 10-12-2017 at 01:55 PM.
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:18 PM   #242
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It came in 5,6,7,8 Again speed fig being wrong or in error had nothing to do with the winner. All 4 horse had shown enough speed to win this race. My analysis(and Andy's)over estimated the negative effect on the class jump from clm10k to clm35k and under estimated the positive effect of the 8 lb drop in weight. I used to be strictly a speed handicapper,but now I have changed. Now I look to see if a horse has shown in the past 4 races that he has enough speed to win this race at this distance and start my handicapping from there. These 4 horses had shown speed fig faster than the race par of 82. I will continue to degrade a horse like the 5 for making that jump in class. In long run I think that is right.
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:29 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
It came in 5,6,7,8 Again speed fig being wrong or in error had nothing to do with the winner. All 4 horse had shown enough speed to win this race. My analysis(and Andy's)over estimated the negative effect on the class jump from clm10k to clm35k and under estimated the positive effect of the 8 lb drop in weight. I used to be strictly a speed handicapper,but now I have changed. Now I look to see if a horse has shown in the past 4 races that he has enough speed to win this race at this distance and start my handicapping from there. These 4 horses had shown speed fig faster than the race par of 82. I will continue to degrade a horse like the 5 for making that jump in class. In long run I think that is right.
I agree with your analysis of this race, the one thing i might point out is that under claiming conditions, after recording a speed figure that qualifies for winning, the class rise should be looked at as a positive. If the horse just runs a good race with the same or slightly lower speed figure at the higher class then it can be viewed as a negative in its next start. If the class move is to a non-claiming race, then it should be viewed as a negative unless the speed figure earned is the highest in the field by more than 6 points.
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Old 10-13-2017, 03:45 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I agree with your analysis of this race, the one thing i might point out is that under claiming conditions, after recording a speed figure that qualifies for winning, the class rise should be looked at as a positive. If the horse just runs a good race with the same or slightly lower speed figure at the higher class then it can be viewed as a negative in its next start. If the class move is to a non-claiming race, then it should be viewed as a negative unless the speed figure earned is the highest in the field by more than 6 points.
His speed fig in his last race was a 66 in the slop so it didn't indicate a improved form. It was the 2nd race back that he ran the 84.
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Old 10-16-2017, 06:36 PM   #245
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Classic example of Handicapping

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
His speed fig in his last race was a 66 in the slop so it didn't indicate a improved form. It was the 2nd race back that the horse ran the 84.
Last race could of been a excuse to move beyond his last line to use the 2nd line for showing improving form.

Just asking
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Old 04-09-2018, 06:04 PM   #246
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Handicapping merthods

I have had very good success with regression analysis. I suggest you Google it and see what you think.
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Old 04-09-2018, 07:40 PM   #247
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I can't spell it.
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Old 04-09-2018, 08:17 PM   #248
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Old 04-09-2018, 08:37 PM   #249
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spell

I-T
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Old 04-09-2018, 08:43 PM   #250
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Thanks guys, I got it.
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Old 04-09-2018, 09:33 PM   #251
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Thumbs up Regression Analysis Handicapping

Google thoroughbred regression analysis. Regression analysis is statistical modeling used in many industries. I won't go into the math detail but it determines how the horse should perform today against the other horses entered in that race. Past performances are valuable but not the foundation of the model. The model simply identifies which horses should run competitively based on the sum of all varaibles within the population of horses entered in that race. It is not a model of a single horses but a model on all the horses.
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Old 04-09-2018, 10:08 PM   #252
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Weren't you the guy whose first ever post I deleted because it was a pitch to come to your site and buy what you're selling?

Yeah, I think it was...

Regression analysis and horse racing has been around since the beginning of time...
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Old 04-08-2019, 08:03 PM   #253
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Regression analysis is used to predict how the change in one variable will change the value of another variable. In other words it's used to predict 1st year collge GPA based on the students SAT score.
In horse racing, for example, it could be used to predict a horse's time or speed figure (dependent variable) based on any other variable (independent variable). As can be imagined, any number of other dependent variables can be used such as previous speed figure(s), average class, etc. Any statistical software can do it. The trick is knowing what variable to use. It can also be used to calculate what percentage of the dependent variable (speed figure) is due to the effect of the independent variable. Since no one variable (handicapping factor) is wholey responsible for another dependent variable, there is also multiple regression analysis which shows what combination of independent variables can predict the dependent variable. Again the trick is to find what these variables are and how to weight them.
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