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01-07-2022, 11:33 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I botched it anyways.
I forgot to mention Charismatic, who probably lost the TC because he broke a leg as opposed to his 3 starts in Dec-Jan.
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So you're saying they weren't related?
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01-07-2022, 11:51 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Michigan
Posts: 726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I botched it anyways.
I forgot to mention Charismatic, who probably lost the TC because he broke a leg as opposed to his 3 starts in Dec-Jan.
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Well to be fair Lemon Drop Kid stopped racing after November 7, 1998 when he came in 5th in the BC Juvenile and won an allowance race at Churchill Downs on February 27, 1999.
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01-07-2022, 11:53 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RacingFan1992
Well to be fair Lemon Drop Kid stopped racing after November 7, 1998 when he came in 5th in the BC Juvenile and won an allowance race at Churchill Downs on February 27, 1999.
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The infamous Churchill Winter Meet of 1999?
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01-07-2022, 12:12 PM
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#19
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,671
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There's nothing inherently disadvantageous about running in Dec or Jan unless it's the rare horse whose schedule was so tough it's starting to wear down just as the other Triple Crown horses are starting to peak. However, as a general rule, the very best prospects are put away for a few months to freshen up after the best 2yo races in fall and scheduled so they ARE peaking in May. There are always exceptions, but typically there's not as much happening among the best prospects in Dec and Jan anyway.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 01-07-2022 at 12:22 PM.
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01-07-2022, 01:05 PM
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#20
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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As I was saying Spalding….
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01-07-2022, 01:31 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Michigan
Posts: 726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
As I was saying Spalding….
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Remind me again.
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01-07-2022, 01:36 PM
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#22
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,671
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Maybe we should ask a few Hall of Fame trainers in the world why they tend to put their best horses away for a few months instead of running straight through the winter and then into the spring so they can earn more money.
Maybe we should ask them why they don't ask tracks to schedule more large purse races for their 2yos and early 3yos during those months.
I'm going to guess they will say experience has taught them that the best way to get a peak in May is off a freshening and "x" preps. When they take a different path, it's usually because the horse is not as good as the best in the crop or is a later developer and they want to get more experience into it. They can try to adjust later if necessary to keep the horse fresh.
Trainers aren't perfect, but I'll trust their judgement.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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01-07-2022, 03:08 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Maybe we should ask a few Hall of Fame trainers in the world why they tend to put their best horses away for a few months instead of running straight through the winter and then into the spring so they can earn more money.
Maybe we should ask them why they don't ask tracks to schedule more large purse races for their 2yos and early 3yos during those months.
I'm going to guess they will say experience has taught them that the best way to get a peak in May is off a freshening and "x" preps. When they take a different path, it's usually because the horse is not as good as the best in the crop or is a later developer and they want to get more experience into it. They can try to adjust later if necessary to keep the horse fresh.
Trainers aren't perfect, but I'll trust their judgement.
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01-07-2022, 03:39 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,671
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
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I should have just quoted your post. We are mostly saying the same things.
You can see from what Spalding posted that horses can run well despite running in Dec and Jan (no shock). But there’s also no question the best 2yo horses are handled in the hope of peaking in May. That means we often aren’t seeing a lot of the best horses this time of year.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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01-07-2022, 04:31 PM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I should have just quoted your post. We are mostly saying the same things.
You can see from what Spalding posted that horses can run well despite running in Dec and Jan (no shock). But there’s also no question the best 2yo horses are handled in the hope of peaking in May. That means we often aren’t seeing a lot of the best horses this time of year.
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Its quite fine with me...
I hope this is NOW put to rest
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01-07-2022, 08:18 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,060
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
The infamous Churchill Winter Meet of 1999?
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I remember that meet; I think closing day was February 30.
Flint Schulhofer blew it with that horse. He peaked on Belmont Day. If he had just started in January he might have actually threatened in the Kentucky Derby instead of having to use it as a mere tune-up.
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01-07-2022, 08:33 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Michigan
Posts: 726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I remember that meet; I think closing day was February 30.
Flint Schulhofer blew it with that horse. He peaked on Belmont Day. If he had just started in January he might have actually threatened in the Kentucky Derby instead of having to use it as a mere tune-up.
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Come back to this post and tell me I'm wrong when a Triple Crown winner raced in December/January but until then I'm going to stand by my statement: avoid horses racing this time of year.
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01-07-2022, 09:20 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I remember that meet; I think closing day was February 30.
Flint Schulhofer blew it with that horse. He peaked on Belmont Day. If he had just started in January he might have actually threatened in the Kentucky Derby instead of having to use it as a mere tune-up.
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Given his 4YO year, and how he fell apart late that year, I think you make an excellent point.
Hopefully Garcie Allen can check in now and clean up this mess.
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01-07-2022, 09:40 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Michigan
Posts: 726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Given his 4YO year, and how he fell apart late that year, I think you make an excellent point.
Hopefully Garcie Allen can check in now and clean up this mess.
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Say goodnight Gracie lol I loved that show
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01-07-2022, 09:47 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,060
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RacingFan1992
Come back to this post and tell me I'm wrong when a Triple Crown winner raced in December/January but until then I'm going to stand by my statement: avoid horses racing this time of year.
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Let's be clear; your statement should be specifically: avoid Derby/Preakness winners in the Belmont Stakes if they raced in December/January between their juvenile and sophomore years. On that alone, even if legit, it would be a rarely useful betting 'angle'.
And Real Quiet's effort in the 1998 Belmont where he lost in a closest of photos--despite running in the HP Futurity & Golden Gate Derby--clearly betrays any sort of notion that your assertion actually holds any causal association between running in those months and winning the TC. Unfortunately, although both those races were historically productive races for the individual classics, neither exists currently in a state that will consistently attract top level classic prospects any more.
I also hope I made clear that your assertion is only genuinely based on a total of 2 Triple Crown winners. Only American Pharoah and Justify had legitimate reasons or even opportunities to run in a winter race. As I said, anything from the 30s thru 60s was not running in the winter time. We don't need to go over the trials and tribulations of Assault or Citation et al. because there was scant opportunity to run those horses in Dec-Jan.
All that aside, you are ignoring a growing trend that started at the turn of the century and if were to continue would make your assertion practically moot.
The last 5 Derby winners and the last 5 Derby first place finishers and this year's runner-up (who might be declared the winner at a later date) all broke their maiden between Dec-Feb and/or started in a race in January. The trend is for trainers to start their 2yos much later in the year. Once quite productive races like the Hopeful, Futurity, Sapling, and even the DM Futurity have lost most of their significance when it comes to the Triple Crown.
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