How Long is a Length?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I think it started and became a popular topic after "Picking Winners" (by Andy B) was released back in the 70’s. After reading about it, I was always curious as to how this static measurement (whatever it happens to be) can account for horses of varying size and running stride (which I might add also varies at different points of call). A good example for comparison would be to think about how a horse like good old Forego could move 34 feet in a single (measured) stride while making its typical stretch drive. This dynamic of course varies dramatically from one horse to another.

Say what you will, but I stand by my premise that you can’t use an exact science like Math to conjure up subjective figures and expect to accurately evaluate one horse’s performance with another’s. There are just too many variables to consider.

I was under the impression that Secretariat had the longest stride at 28 feet.

As for the bolded... But you believe that the same fallacy of math will work with the tote board?

Which... BTW... are a conglomeration of all that faulty math as practiced by the public.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I was under the impression that Secretariat had the longest stride at 28 feet.

As for the bolded... But you believe that the same fallacy of math will work with the tote board?

Which... BTW... are a conglomeration of all that faulty math as practiced by the public.

Secretariat’s stride was as you mentioned 28 feet (during the stretch drive) which was equivalent to Exceller’s stride but did not match Forego’s.

There is no fallacy when using math and specific algorithms to analyze money movement on the tote board. Besides its all current and objective information.

I would suggest abstaining from using the term “public” as it applies to the money being wagered. It’s a misnomer that’s unfortunately permeated the minds of so many players. There are many Insiders betting (as well as the Outsiders) who may not be using any Math at all when it comes to knowing the current physical and mental condition of their horses of interest. As far as I’m concerned their wagering is simply a reflection of the confidence they place in their convictions at a specific moment in time (nothing more – nothing less).

[bobphilo]

Here's a witty quote from Charles Carroll (Handicapping Speed) on why using the 8 foot measure is so much better than the traditional 10 feet.

"A six furlong race covers 3,960 feet. Ten-foot Clydesdales run 396 lengths from start to finish. Eight-foot Thoroughbreds run 495. Generally it is best when your errors are not magnified by things like “99” – the number of lengths difference between Clydesdales and Thoroughbreds running 6 furlongs. At the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 and a quarter mile, the difference is 165."

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

This issue has been under discussion since before I started playing in 1985. I think it's really curious that such debates can go on for so long when there exists such things as horses and tape measures.

Charles Carroll did use a tape measure on a large number of race horses and most ranged between 7.5 and 8.5 feet. 8 feet is a useful average.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I was under the impression that Secretariat had the longest stride at 28 feet.

As for the bolded... But you believe that the same fallacy of math will work with the tote board?

Which... BTW... are a conglomeration of all that faulty math as practiced by the public.

No expert here, but how long was Zenyatta's stride? She towered over Secretariat, which surprised me at the time.

[bobphilo]

[QUOTE=Nitro;2392583]I think it started and became a popular topic after "Picking Winners" (by Andy B) was released back in the 70’s. After reading about it, I was always curious as to how this static measurement (whatever it happens to be) can account for horses of varying size and running stride (which I might add also varies at different points of call). A good example for comparison would be to think about how a horse like good old Forego could move 34 feet in a single (measured) stride while making its typical stretch drive. This dynamic of course varies dramatically from one horse to another.

/QUOTE]

A length is defined as the distance from a horses nose to the root of its tail. Contrary to popular belief, this only changes by a few inches when a horse is in full stride. Video tape studies have confirmed this. Therefore stride length is irrelevant to the discussion of the value of a beaten length. Where the horses hooves land or the length of its tail are not included in the measurement which is why many incorrectly think a length is longer.

[bobphilo]

As we seem to have reached a consensus on the value of 1 length perhaps we can move on to the off topic of stride length. Simon Rolands writes an excellent blog analysing stride length and cadence in handicapping. This varies between sprinters and routers and is an excellent way of predicting a horses performance when they run a new distance.

http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

A length is defined as the distance from a horses nose to the root of its tail. Contrary to popular belief, this only changes by a few inches when a horse is in full stride. Video tape studies have confirmed this. Therefore stride length is irrelevant to the discussion of the value of a beaten length. Where the horses hooves land or the length of its tail are not included in the measurement which is why many incorrectly think a length is longer.

So if what you're saying about stride length is true, correct me if I’m wrong about 2 horses with the same hand size and weight:
Horse A has a typically consistent average stride of 18 feet.
Horse B has a typically consistent average stride of 20 feet.

Assuming both are in top condition and the track is fast.
Are you saying that both will cover ¾ of mile (6F – 3960 ft) in the same time?
Or does horse A have to exert more energy to keep pace and stay in contention with horse B?

After all isn’t the purpose of determining the so-called measured length (beaten lengths) a function of time off of the horse that’s leading at each point of call?
And if that’s case if both horses were neck and neck at the ½ pole how much more energy would horse A have to have exerted to stay even?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Nitro

So if what you're saying about stride length is true, correct me if I’m wrong about 2 horses with the same hand size and weight:
Horse A has a typically consistent average stride of 18 feet.
Horse B has a typically consistent average stride of 20 feet.

Assuming both are in top condition and the track is fast.
Are you saying that both will cover ¾ of mile (6F – 3960 ft) in the same time?
Or does horse A have to exert more energy to keep pace and stay in contention with horse B?

After all isn’t the purpose of determining the so-called measured length (beaten lengths) a function of time off of the horse that’s leading at each point of call?
And if that’s case if both horses were neck and neck at the ½ pole how much more energy would horse A have to have exerted to stay even?

No, they will not necessarily cover the same distance in the same time because stride length and size are not the only variables involved. Handicapping is not that simple and you know that. Stride length must be used in conjunction with stride cadence in addition to the each horses ability to sustain them at the distance.

The amount of energy a horse will have available at the stretch call depends on how much he had available at the start and how efficiently he distributes it.
The only way to consider all these factors contributing to a horses future performance is through what he has done in the past - the PPs.
Stride length and cadence are most useful in predicting how a horse will perform at a new distance or surface since each has its individual demands on these factors. Another way would be to do a muscle biopsy on the horse and note what is its ratio of fast to slow twitch fibers but that is hardly practical to say the least.

Just a footnote. We already have the GPS technology to measure each horses time and position at each point of call, rendering beaten lengths obsolete. We just have to wait for more tracks to implement it, and in some cases, perfect it.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

No expert here, but how long was Zenyatta's stride? She towered over Secretariat, which surprised me at the time.

It was 26 feet.

[Dan Montilion]

I will let smarter Men than I figure out the size of a length... What I do know is a nose can be WAY too F'in long.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Dan Montilion

I will let smarter Men than I figure out the size of a length... What I do know is a nose can be WAY too F'in long.

If a nose was a half an inch longer or half an inch shorter, I would be a rich man!

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Dan Montilion

I will let smarter Men than I figure out the size of a length... What I do know is a nose can be WAY too F'in long.

I hope that doesn't inspire a thread on the length of a nose and whether horses with long noses have an advantage.

[Augenj]

Dan, Tom, Bob... too funny.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Once upon a time, I calculated the speed of a horse at the finish as the sum of the Equibase speed rating and the variant. Trouble is that speed and variant use 1/5 (.20) second and this turned out to be too long when I calculated speed and winners. It's more like .15 second in a bell curve of winning horses.

Therefore, .15 second "might" be the length of a horse traveling at xx miles per hour, whatever that is. I wasn't smart enough to calculate the variant difference between sprinters and routers so I used .15 as my length constant for speed and variant.

CJ will laugh at this but moving on... If you buy into this and say that .15 second is the length of a horse and he runs 1 mile (5,280 feet) in 1 minute 36 seconds (96 seconds) then he's running 55 feet per second. A length would be .15 times 55 which is 8.25 feet or the approximate length of a race horse.

Let me put the Merlot away and come back later.

I believe the current calculation for the ESF uses 6 lengths per second, so .16666....