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[QUOTE=Valuist] How often do you see two strong contenders in a race battle for much of the race and one wins, and the other tails off completely, and another horse who was never in contention to win, gets up for second? I love taking the 15-1 or 20-1 types in the underneath slot in the .[/]
You are making the same assumption as the OP. There is no pool for a 2nd place horse. Both the place pool and the exacta are heavily dependent on the winner. You therefore can not value your second leg of an exacta until after the 1st horse passes the finish line. You can however make an independent bet on the 1st place and express your confidence as a %. You can also value the 1st place.
For example, I bet on horses to win with a confidence level of +40%. I'd have a 58% confidence that the horse would win or place. But I couldn't give you a value for just the 2nd spot.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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