Did Anyone Predict This?

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by _______

The Russian people have certainly demonstrated an inordinate ability to endure suffering. That is likely to be a great benefit to their government in 2015 as a recession looms. Inflation, interest rates, and capital flight are all up. Absent a substantial recovery in the price of oil, the Russian economy in 2015 is going to look a lot like the stagflation we endured in the mid 70's.

They are a mid sized petro state and will endure the boom and bust cycles of the oil economy until they develop a more diversified economy, a better business climate based on rule of law, and better political relations with their natural trading partners.

I will credit the Russian government with managing the negative consequences of sanctions and falling oil prices about as well as possible. But the long term outlook for them isn't positive.

They can always console themselves with this:

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by badcompany

I had a wider stop. Yesterday it was 14. Today, it was down to 13.8. That 5% upward spike took me out. I'm sure I wasn't the only as that trade had to be crowded. Volatility usually signals the end of that kind of trade. After yesterday, I figured the end was near.

As an aside, I'm not a big fan of these one day fed driven rallies. They tend to be given back in short order.

The short order was about 3 weeks.

[lamboguy]

still no sign of a pause never mind bottom on oil.

my play for the year is wheat, i am looking for 6.80

with the cold weather throughout the country, nat gas was only able to move 6 cents today.

[ReplayRandall]

Caterpillar -7.18% and Microsoft -9.25% absolutely hammered today....

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Caterpillar -7.18% and Microsoft -9.25% absolutely hammered today....

Cat - Feeling the effects of commodity price drops.

Msft - No one is buying pcs anymore.

[_______]

Originally Posted by badcompany

Cat - Feeling the effects of commodity price drops.

Msft - No one is buying pcs anymore.

CAT: Commodity price drops x a strong dollar. I know every CEO with a weak quarter will be citing $ strength but in CAT's case I think it's legitimate. I don't know the % but a huge portion of their sales are overseas.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by _______

CAT: Commodity price drops x a strong dollar. I know every CEO with a weak quarter will be citing $ strength but in CAT's case I think it's legitimate. I don't know the % but a huge portion of their sales are overseas.

You need to add the recession in China to the list of CAT's problems. Other manufacturing companies also face currency issues, such as Honeywell, but they seem to be doing OK.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by reckless

You need to add the recession in China to the list of CAT's problems. Other manufacturing companies also face currency issues, such as Honeywell, but they seem to be doing OK.

I was gonna bring that up. Cat did very well selling construction equipment to China during their real estate and infrastructure boom.

Never bought into the weak dollar argument. It's a two sided variable. While you might sell less, the dollars you're getting are worth more.

The Swiss just showed there is a tipping point where the positives of a weak currency are outweighed by the negatives.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Caterpillar -7.18% and Microsoft -9.25% absolutely hammered today....

Microsoft still bleeding, down another -3.45% today.......