50 years of handicapping - Today

[PaceAdvantage]

Just like for most of the horse and sports bettors out there, the "speculators" are also mostly gamblers...they're just playing in a much larger casino.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Just like for most of the horse and sports bettors out there, the "speculators" are also mostly gamblers...they're just playing in a much larger casino.

I know this for a fact...you get a lot more sympathy from others when you lose your money while speculating in the financial markets. When you lose your money at a racetrack or a casino...all you get is scorn.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I know this for a fact...you get a lot more sympathy from others when you lose your money while speculating in the financial markets. When you lose your money at a racetrack or a casino...all you get is scorn.

And when you win... even if you are a long-term winner... you get, "Oh, you just got lucky."

Funny thing... the last guy who said that to me firmly believes he could bet football and baskets for a living.

[46zilzal]

The FIRST thing one learns when playing the parimutuels for any length of time: WINS ARE STREAKY..It is only looking a the LONG TERM ROI that makes any sense in the overall evaluation of competency.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

And when you win... even if you are a long-term winner... you get, "Oh, you just got lucky."

Funny thing... the last guy who said that to me firmly believes he could bet football and baskets for a living.

True.

The horseplayer is ridiculed even by other gamblers. After I had my best year at the track in 2004, my poker-playing buddies tried to get me to give up the game. The "Law of Averages" was sure to catch up with me the following year...they told me.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

True.

The horseplayer is ridiculed even by other gamblers. After I had my best year at the track in 2004, my poker-playing buddies tried to get me to give up the game. The "Law of Averages" was sure to catch up with me the following year...they told me.

i've had plenty of bad years betting these horses especially this century. every single year it gets tougher and tougher. there are people out there that do a much better job at this than whatever i did in years gone bye.

the good part of staying at home and betting is that in between races i can workout and get into great shape,

years ago when i was running in and out of sports books, i used to meet
plenty of all-beef hot dogs. in those days, there was never a hot dog i didn't love. if anyone knew Dave Monaci, he never met a doughnut that he didn't devour. if he was alive today, he probably would be living in one of these gourmet doughnut joints.

[romankoz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

With the "chaos" involved in the 10-horse race, and the high parimutuel takeout that is exacted...isn't it possible that NO ONE can win without a substantial rebate? Is there proof out there to suggest that the non-rebated player can still beat this game?

I can only go on what I have been told mostly and in a handful of situations of bettors I have known who won while I knew them. One I knew has passed away but he was exceptionally good with place bets (1,2,3 in Aus). Another guy I knew years ago only bet on the shortest priced favourites also for the place. He used to put $10K for a place right at the start of the betting for the day which made the odds terrible as the pool size wasn't all that big. The poor possible div had other punters betting other runners for their better price and his would eventually drift An exceptional div for him was $3 for a $2 outlay (using USA odds/bet size).
He told me when he had a losing day (one bet per day btway) it took him several weeks to recoup his losses.
Here in Aus winning punters are banned or have their bet sizes dramatically reduced. They don't do that for losers so there must be some winners.

[romankoz]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

However, the idea that someone would say, "Please prove to me that you are a winning player before I listen to you," would get a lot of laughs from such a player.

Besides... what would you expect them to do to offer proof?

I agree Dave. It could take 12 months to prove someone wrong and then they would say you were just lucky. There's also the number of bets involved. Is 100, 1000 or 10000 bets enough?

[romankoz]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

And when you win... even if you are a long-term winner... you get, "Oh, you just got lucky."

Funny thing... the last guy who said that to me firmly believes he could bet football and baskets for a living.

Well,what an amazing coincidence. I hadn't read Dave's posting and there we are both mentioning "you just got lucky".

[GASSTATIONSUSHI]

IMO sports handicapping is akin checkers and horse handicappers is chess. much more depth to horse handicapping. with the 10% rebates on straight bets and betfair locked in odds with a 2.5 % commission . the takeout isnt so much different.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by GASSTATIONSUSHI

IMO sports handicapping is akin checkers and horse handicappers is chess. much more depth to horse handicapping. with the 10% rebates on straight bets and betfair locked in odds with a 2.5 % commission . the takeout isnt so much different.

I'm not current on BetFair, but as of 4 or 5 years ago, if you are a "long term" winning player, BF will take such a high commission as to become your partner.

[lefty359]

The problem with Betfair is only NJ that can use them in the US.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by lefty359

The problem with Betfair is only NJ that can use them in the US.

If you're talking about exchange wagering, Betfair pulled the plug on that in NJ in 2020.

[BIG RED]

What happened to Scamper