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Old 01-08-2023, 06:38 AM   #46
romankoz
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I don't bet on sports simply because I think it is too easy. Now, don't take that meaning I think I can tip 90% winners but it is more about the fact there are only two teams involved per game. Only one team can win and one lose so broadly speaking it starts of at 50/50 or 1/1. In horseracing in an average field size of 10 (Aus average on my figures) it starts at 9/1.
Naturally the stats come into play to create a line/odds for the two teams and the ten runners.
It's "easier" to be wise in a two horse race than a 10 horse race hence I believe the poor bettors make it easier to win at horseracing than they do at sports for the bettors who REALLY study the form.
Hope what I am trying to say makes sense as a point of view albeit with my own twist to the two sports.
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Old 01-08-2023, 04:19 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by romankoz View Post
I don't bet on sports simply because I think it is too easy. Now, don't take that meaning I think I can tip 90% winners but it is more about the fact there are only two teams involved per game. Only one team can win and one lose so broadly speaking it starts of at 50/50 or 1/1. In horseracing in an average field size of 10 (Aus average on my figures) it starts at 9/1.
Naturally the stats come into play to create a line/odds for the two teams and the ten runners.
It's "easier" to be wise in a two horse race than a 10 horse race hence I believe the poor bettors make it easier to win at horseracing than they do at sports for the bettors who REALLY study the form.
Hope what I am trying to say makes sense as a point of view albeit with my own twist to the two sports.
With the "chaos" involved in the 10-horse race, and the high parimutuel takeout that is exacted...isn't it possible that NO ONE can win without a substantial rebate? Is there proof out there to suggest that the non-rebated player can still beat this game?
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Old 01-08-2023, 06:05 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
With the "chaos" involved in the 10-horse race, and the high parimutuel takeout that is exacted...isn't it possible that NO ONE can win without a substantial rebate? Is there proof out there to suggest that the non-rebated player can still beat this game?
There is proof enough for me.

As an example, one of my long-time pro clients as declined to get any rebate. Cannot explain why as I've prodded him for well over a decade.

As for "substantial," there a handful of the winning players I know who live in states that make internet betting difficult to say the least. Those players typically use some jerry-rigged way of betting and get little or no rebate.

From Nevada, my rebates are mostly in the 0 to 3% range on win bets.
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Old 01-08-2023, 07:33 PM   #49
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There is proof enough for me.

As an example, one of my long-time pro clients as declined to get any rebate. Cannot explain why as I've prodded him for well over a decade.

As for "substantial," there a handful of the winning players I know who live in states that make internet betting difficult to say the least. Those players typically use some jerry-rigged way of betting and get little or no rebate.

From Nevada, my rebates are mostly in the 0 to 3% range on win bets.
I believe you...but I'd like to see one of these "winners" myself before I can be fully convinced of their existence. So far, after 40 years at the tracks and the OTBs, every "winner" that I have encountered has, upon closer inspection, turned out to be only a mirage. My experience has taught me that we horseplayers can also be very competent liars.

One "big winner" that I thought I knew well - and even wrote about on this board - turned out to be a silent partner in a successful Chicago car dealership. He was pretending that he made all his income at the track, while the truth was that he was playing and losing at the track with income that he was earning elsewhere. Another more unscrupulous "big winner", who was flashing a big bankroll and large winning wagers, fled the country under the cover of darkness, and was later reported to have embezzled a large amount of money from a rich relative who had foolishly entrusted the financial control of a small shopping center to him. He is now hiding out in Greece trying to avoid the wrath of his cheated relative, and the disgust of his own wife and kids.

This game being as "secretive" as it is...the only person whom I can call with certainty a "winning player" is myself. But I would never dare to call myself a "winner"...because no sane person would pay the price that I have paid in order to beat this game after 20+ years of losing. In fact, looking back...I might be the biggest loser of them all. And I'm not exaggerating about that.
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Old 01-08-2023, 09:12 PM   #50
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I believe you...but I'd like to see one of these "winners" myself
This is probably an unrealistic expectation.

I find that winners love to share what they know, albeit withholding the secret sauce.

However, the idea that someone would say, "Please prove to me that you are a winning player before I listen to you," would get a lot of laughs from such a player.

Besides... what would you expect them to do to offer proof?
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Old 01-08-2023, 09:26 PM   #51
thaskalos
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This is probably an unrealistic expectation.

I find that winners love to share what they know, albeit withholding the secret sauce.

However, the idea that someone would say, "Please prove to me that you are a winning player before I listen to you," would get a lot of laughs from such a player.

Besides... what would you expect them to do to offer proof?
I don't walk up to players and ask them to "Please prove to me that you are a winning player before I listen to you". No one needs to prove ANYTHING to me. I like talking about handicapping, and I am willing to engage in conversation with all sorts of horseplayers...especially the knowledgeable ones. It's the OTHER players whom I encounter who usually start bragging about their "winner" status...and that's when I get suspicious.

Every few years, a poll question appears on this board where somebody asks about the proficiency of the members here at the betting windows. The final poll results are usually something like this:

Winning player............33%
Break-even player.......34%
Losing player..............33%

So, in a game where both of us acknowledge that only about 4 in 1000 players are consistent winners...about 67% of the members here place themselves in the non-losing category. Consequently...how can I believe what others say about their horseplaying prowess?
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Old 01-08-2023, 11:22 PM   #52
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THASKALOS
So, in a game where both of us acknowledge that only about 4 in 1000 players are consistent winners...about 67% of the members here place themselves in the non-losing category. Consequently...how can I believe what others say about their horseplaying prowess?
Oh, I hear you.

Let me provide some fodder that might pass for a little better than anecdotal truth.
______________________________

I was working with someone tonight on how to filter races in a study.

(HSH captures every race you bet, and every horse in the race. It tags contenders, probabilities, and a whole lot of stuff, so you can figure out what you're doing right or wrong.)

In this player's case, he wanted to learn how to do some basic filter so he could look at what his winners and losers looked like at different tracks, surfaces, distances, field sizes, etc.


Thought you guys might like to see what a winning amateur player can accomplish.

_________________
First, we're looking at his last 715 races.


Even though I have helped this player with strategy in the past, he is 100% responsible for his success. I have only a vague idea about what he does.

What I KNOW to be true.
  • As many of our more successful players do, he bets every race he handicaps.
  • He does not make an odds line and bet into it.
  • He does some form of dynamic handicapping.
  • That means HSH fetches races from the database that are "like this one."
  • Then HSH uses those races as a "model" to build objects to handicap with.
  • He plays an average of 2 horses per race, sometimes more, sometimes less.

Here's what I believe to be true:
  • He uses a module known as "How the Whales Should Bet."
  • This module is NOT used to predict the odds.
  • It is generally used to determine who the good bets should be.
  • (Ironically, these are typically the horses who will win a lot of races and wind up losing 3-6%.)

How he actually handicaps is completely out of my scope of knowledge.

As I said to him when I recorded this video, the results are phenomenal.
BTW, the video was to show him how to filter the bets he's made to see how well he is doing in some types of races as opposed to others.
___________________________________


In this graphic, we have "built a filter" (for teaching purposes) to isolate on races shorter than 1 mile.

As you can see, the results were highly similar, but the races played have dropped from 715 to 566. Obviously, distance is not an issue.

___________________________________

Our user's typically use what we call Object Odds - an Artificial Morning Line object (aML).

This graphic shows that he's pretty much beating every odds range, and the sample sizes are respectable.

BTW, Object Odds are only available when you handicap one race at a time.
IOW, this was not some kind of robotic handicapping where a system is thrown against a database.

___________________________________


In this image we see the Grades Breakdown.

In HSH, the grades are based upon the projected $net for each horse.
more specifically, $net is computed from:
Probability x Projected Odds

Although the actual grade levels are set by the user, generally A+ to A- are set to be profitable and everything below is projected to be losers, with F's being the absolute worst.

As you can see from looking at the table, the projected Best Bets were slight losers, but once again he did pretty well from top to bottom.

One thing worth noticing - Since he bets so many Grade F horses, there is obviously no Value Component in his approach.

I've taught a lot of players that in today's Era of the Whales value handicapping - making a line and betting into it - is pretty much dead.
___________________________________




In this last screenshot, we see how the horses ranked for probability. Again, he was quite successful from top to bottom.

And, again, we can see that he is clearly not using the "best horses" to make his bets.

___________________________________
FINALLY, I will share a little background about this player, who is very well-known in our community.

I recall a few years ago - maybe 6 years? - when he announced that after decades of losing, for the FIRST TIME IN HIS LIFE he did not have to refill his account at the end of the month.

Later he spoke of how it felt to have WON EIGHT MONTHS IN A ROW.

His win back then was nothing like this.
Oh, I've seen lots of guys with +20% ROIs over several thousand bets.
What I have never seen is $Nets like his across all spectrums.

He is not a professional player - not by a longshot - but what he has accomplished is damned impressive.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 01-11-2023 at 02:20 AM.
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Old 01-09-2023, 01:36 PM   #53
46zilzal
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I was what I call a "ragged," hit and miss winner with an ROI about even BEFORE I started to use HSH,

But NOW, with the tools HSH gave me (and conquering the learning curve), I can gladly say the wins are far more consistent and the ROI stays positive most days..The basic idea behind the HSH rankings continue to amaze

What is more, using HSH, helped me discover WHERE are the best places to find positive ROI's and it is NOT usually the BIG venues.

AND Dave updates new findings all the time for his users...Like the 123 seminar is a great back up for the main analysts.
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Old 01-09-2023, 02:17 PM   #54
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My intention was not a commercial for HSH.
Frankly, the great majority of users simply do not want such a comprehensive program. That's for the guys who truly must win.
My purpose was to show that it really can be done by mere mortals and there really are guys doing it.

Truth: Most players fail with HSH.
That's because they simply won't ask for help.

But enough about HSH.


THE POINT IS that players can and do become long-term winners even though they don't aspire to be professional players.

Just like guys who play golf 2-3 times per week who care about their game despite having no desire to play on the PGA tour.

And those guys who want to tell you that nobody wins simply don't know what they're talking about.

Same with Barry Meadow and his quote about nobody getting more than +3%.

I know more than a dozen guys who absolutely do.

One of them - Tony Kofalt - a full-time professional who I have known personally since 1993, recently posted his 2022 stats.

+20% ROI

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Old 01-11-2023, 06:57 AM   #55
deelo
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You can get the Fotias book here for free, just have to sign up with an email and password then download the chapters in PDF:

https://www.predicteform.com/Form-Cycle-Analysis
Here's the merged pdf

http://www.predicteform.com/Media/Blinkers_Off.pdf
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Old 01-11-2023, 07:50 AM   #56
Half Smoke
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Originally Posted by romankoz View Post
I don't bet on sports simply because I think it is too easy.

it's hard for me to believe that somebody would post this
it's so very, very wrong
the lines are very, very tight

I would love to see someone post 150 sports picks and show everybody how easy it is

that ain't gonna happen


having said that - winning betting sports is easier - (but not easy) - than winning at racing

the house take on the simple sports bets (not parlays) is only 4.55%

I find the takeout in racing crushing - and I will never again make serious bets into a negative situation like that

I will sometimes make recreational bets


to review what everyone here knows but rarely mentions


WPS - around 17%

Exacta - around 20%

Tri - around 25%

and that's before breakage which can have a large impact on odds on faves



maybe some can

but I'm not Superman

I know I can't regularly beat a takeout like that

maybe, maybe, possibly if I put a ton of work into it - and then if I could I believe it would only be by a tiny % - but I'm not willing to do that

still, I love the game - and the excitement of a race - and the great challenge of handicapping and will make some small bets



glta


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Old 01-11-2023, 02:43 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
it's hard for me to believe that somebody would post this
it's so very, very wrong
the lines are very, very tight

I would love to see someone post 150 sports picks and show everybody how easy it is

that ain't gonna happen


having said that - winning betting sports is easier - (but not easy) - than winning at racing

Quote:
the house take on the simple sports bets (not parlays) is only 4.55%
I find the takeout in racing crushing - and I will never again make serious bets into a negative situation like that

I will sometimes make recreational bets


to review what everyone here knows but rarely mentions


WPS - around 17%

Exacta - around 20%

Tri - around 25%

and that's before breakage which can have a large impact on odds on faves



maybe some can

but I'm not Superman

I know I can't regularly beat a takeout like that

maybe, maybe, possibly if I put a ton of work into it - and then if I could I believe it would only be by a tiny % - but I'm not willing to do that

still, I love the game - and the excitement of a race - and the great challenge of handicapping and will make some small bets



glta


.
That standard bet 11-10 with that 4.55% hold is even much better when betting baseball. The baseball hold changes of course depending on the money line odds. So if you are getting a dime line the hold from the money line odds of 100 to -160 range for example is going to be about between the range of 2.33% to 1.52%. If you are betting into a 20 line within that odds range the hold is going to range from 4.35% to 2.88%.
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Old 01-11-2023, 03:12 PM   #58
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I have been in love with handicapping horses for over 40 years, and I have been an enthusiastic bettor for just as long. I continue to participate in this game, but my enthusiasm for it has waned considerably. It occurs to me that horse betting is the "minor league" of gambling...and I aspire to elevate to the "majors". And the major league of gambling is sports betting, IMO. It's the new frontier...and no responsible gambler can afford to be left behind, as far as I am concerned. It's time to jump into the future, folks...and to leave the past behind.
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Old 01-11-2023, 03:28 PM   #59
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Nahhh...the absolute major of major leagues is speculation in the financial markets.

That's where the REAL of all REAL MONEY is...lol

Everything else is baby shit by comparison.
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Old 01-11-2023, 03:31 PM   #60
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Nahhh...the absolute major of major leagues is speculation in the financial markets.

That's where the REAL of all REAL MONEY is...lol

Everything else is baby shit by comparison.
I said the major leagues for "gamblers". You financial market guys call yourselves "speculators"...and that's a cut above.
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