50 years of handicapping - Today

[romankoz]

For someone who has been a bettor since 1967 I believe I can speak with a degree of authority considering the hours I have put into form analysis.

My first piece of advice is to learn what causes favourites OVERALL to be beaten form wise. The major factors will be distance, track conditions, fitness and in running positions. The next set of factors will revolve around jockeys and trainers and their abilities to ride and train winners.

My second piece of advice is to only bet serious amounts on horses whose price you believe should be 3/1 or less. This is the toughest part but just imagine you are laying this horse on Betfair. What is the maximum price you would lay this horse at? The answer is your price.

In the finish you want to be on a well fancied horse ridden by a competent jockey and trained by a competent trainer whose horse can run the distance under todays track conditions and doesn't race in the back half of the field and is respected by bettors.

By all means have $2 on 20/1 chances but your serious bets should be at least 20/30 times larger. Basically if you get a 20/1 winner that collect should pay for one of your larger bets.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by romankoz

For someone who has been a bettor since 1967 I believe I can speak with a degree of authority considering the hours I have put into form analysis.

My first piece of advice is to learn what causes favourites OVERALL to be beaten form wise. The major factors will be distance, track conditions, fitness and in running positions. The next set of factors will revolve around jockeys and trainers and their abilities to ride and train winners.

My second piece of advice is to only bet serious amounts on horses whose price you believe should be 3/1 or less. This is the toughest part but just imagine you are laying this horse on Betfair. What is the maximum price you would lay this horse at? The answer is your price.

In the finish you want to be on a well fancied horse ridden by a competent jockey and trained by a competent trainer whose horse can run the distance under todays track conditions and doesn't race in the back half of the field and is respected by bettors.

By all means have $2 on 20/1 chances but your serious bets should be at least 20/30 times larger. Basically if you get a 20/1 winner that collect should pay for one of your larger bets.

Reread this post a whole lot if you're new to this game and learn how to win on a consistent basis.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't know how it is where you live, but in the Chicago-area where I live, you can walk into a casino or an OTB, make your sports wager...and no one will know whether you are a winner or a loser, nor can anyone limit the size of your bets. And it won't be long before this is the case nationwide. Don't believe all the nonsense that you hear.

I don't know about "nonsense", and this is just some of the stuff I've read, rather than heard -

From the Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...caesars-circa/

From the Athletic - "Jeopardy James" Holzhauer would say that it's not just a matter of walking up to the window, time after time:
https://theathletic.com/3437362/2022...book-limiting/

Your local friends at BetRivers (Rush Street Interactive - which is partnered with CDI in the Des Plaines Rivers casino) get a drive-by mention here, in conjunction with an article about DraftKings:
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/71...sharp-betting/

That's just three. I could point you to many other sources. These are just the U.S. market, which is not as mature as the overseas markets in terms of national coverage and bettors experiencing limits/closed accounts.

So you MIGHT be able to get your wagers down, in-person, if you're a consistent winner. But you'll spend as much or more time working out how to do that as you spend deciding on what your bet is going to be.

You're also talking in-person vs. online/apps. We have grown to appreciate NOT having to be at our wagering venue in person. I don't know of anyone who's tried to make a $500 wager on a horse via an ADW app/online and had their bet refused. I do know people who've tried to do the same on a sportsbook app and been offered amounts like $23.50, with something as basic as an NFL side.

Now if you're just talking a purely "recreational/entertainment for the weekend" endeavor with the hope of a little bit of profit overall at the end of the year - that's a different kettle of fish.

And if you think that the horses are easier to beat than baseball and basketball...then I think you should have your head examined.

I don't recall anything regarding the ease of any of these being mentioned by me. Sports definitely has a great advantage of mounds and mounds of FREE, very accessible data. That's one of the biggest obstacles the neophyte horseplayer would have.

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

To be honest...the best advice anyone could give to a novice starting out im the game, is to direct him to a more worthwhile game to play. With sports betting bursting upon the gambling scene...why not spend the time researching the everyday sports like baseball and basketball? With the number of baseball and basketball games played every year, and the set odds that these games offer...isn't the profit potential for the motivated gambler much higher than what can be attained in horseracing? Profit is the real reason that we play these gambling games...NO?

Horse racing is the only sport that you can win:

A LUMBER YARD WITH A TOOTHPICK.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by SandyW

Horse racing is the only sport that you can win:

A LUMBER YARD WITH A TOOTHPICK.

I've never met a lumber yard owner in all my years at the racetrack.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't know how it is where you live, but in the Chicago-area where I live, you can walk into a casino or an OTB, make your sports wager...and no one will know whether you are a winner or a loser, nor can anyone limit the size of your bets. And it won't be long before this is the case nationwide. Don't believe all the nonsense that you hear. And if you think that the horses are easier to beat than baseball and basketball...then I think you should have your head examined.

And another thing. The horses and poker require that you sit your ass down and spend hours and hours in active participation in order to make a profit. It's like a second job. With sports betting...you walk up to the window, make your bets...and go on with your life.

While it may be easier to 'beat' I suspect profitable sports betting takes full immersion and a whole lot of close observation. Stats from games aren't likely to tell the whole story any more than raw pps do vs trip observation. What sports betting definitely does have vs horse racing is a pointspread which puts even pure guesswork from casuals at 50% winners. That's a massive safety net from a money management standpoint. It creates great churn along with bunches of winning participants on a weekly basis. Casuals in racing dive into horizontals, it's the total opposite, it's low win rate, they're busted quickly and out of commission for another week. Racing definitely lacks some form of fixed odds on 50%/50% prop bets and I'm not sure how it can bring that to the table in some form every race. Horse against horse would be a huge step in that direction. In racing even when you know what odds you're getting within a reasonable + or - (which I pretty much did all day today) if you're looking for 50/50 on win rate it just isn't there very often at the price. I think I handicapped 8 or 9 races today and made no bets. That's a lot of time invested, 3-4 hours looking for prime bet opportunities, horses that I really liked were either below my min acceptable odds or higher odds but lower percentage plays that I stayed out of. On the positive side yesterday I made one bet out of 6 or 7 races and won it. There are different ways to bet on horses obviously but there's also a degree of selectivity that's required in order to be profitable which I think very few people are willing to steel themselves for.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by SandyW

Horse racing is the only sport that you can win:

A LUMBER YARD WITH A TOOTHPICK.

Some of the heaviest business in sports wagering right now is in multi-leg parlays. These can pay out lots of board-feet when they infrequently hit, so the appeal and lure is there also.

[dnlgfnk]

I wouldn't touch baseball...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/

One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).

I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.

Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml

Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.

I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.

Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

I wouldn't touch baseball...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/

One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).

I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.

Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml

Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.

I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.

Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today?

If you applied yourself in sports betting to the extent that you have in the "running horse"...my money says that you would be a lot better off, financially speaking. I am not, of course, implying that you may not be well off financially now.

[romankoz]

MJC922 says
" I think I handicapped 8 or 9 races today and made no bets. That's a lot of time invested, 3-4 hours looking for prime bet opportunities,
Roman Koz says
Each Saturday I am like MJC but , of course, he works differently but towards the same goal. I personally study all horses quoted at 5/2 (US $7) and less initially with a couple of rules to weed out low percentage plays. The rules vary as sometimes it is just the lower class races, others I have no great faith in distance ability and on it goes.
Usually I start with about thirty horses across the major Aus tracks but it soon whittles down to half or dozen or so that get the full treatment and from there I decide.
Earlier someone (might have been MJC) stated you have to learn how to let go/fold a winner. Oh boy, how true is that!! When I let one go and it gets beaten I cheer as loudly as when I back a winner because I have just backed a winner by saving a unit. When they win and I am not on board at least I know I was close. No bet, nothng lost.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by romankoz

For someone who has been a bettor since 1967 I believe I can speak with a degree of authority considering the hours I have put into form analysis.

My first piece of advice is to learn what causes favourites OVERALL to be beaten form wise. The major factors will be distance, track conditions, fitness and in running positions. The next set of factors will revolve around jockeys and trainers and their abilities to ride and train winners.

My second piece of advice is to only bet serious amounts on horses whose price you believe should be 3/1 or less. This is the toughest part but just imagine you are laying this horse on Betfair. What is the maximum price you would lay this horse at? The answer is your price.

In the finish you want to be on a well fancied horse ridden by a competent jockey and trained by a competent trainer whose horse can run the distance under todays track conditions and doesn't race in the back half of the field and is respected by bettors.

By all means have $2 on 20/1 chances but your serious bets should be at least 20/30 times larger. Basically if you get a 20/1 winner that collect should pay for one of your larger bets.

Some solid stuff.

IMO hitting a $42.00 horse should always be a difference maker. Not to tread water.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

I wouldn't touch baseball...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/

One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).

I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.

Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml

Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.

I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.

Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today?

You're ignoring short-term trends, which I've seen people do in racing too. Or at least I used to, right here on this site. At one time it was "well yeah that trainer has won 3 of their last 4 claims, but is it statistically profitable over 5 years blah blah". While I cashed tickets. Now of course it has gone the other way where all of the value has been sucked out. But the minute you say something about 500 plate appearances, you show that while you might do well in season-long fantasy baseball, you don't understand baseball betting.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by castaway01

You're ignoring short-term trends, which I've seen people do in racing too. Or at least I used to, right here on this site. At one time it was "well yeah that trainer has won 3 of their last 4 claims, but is it statistically profitable over 5 years blah blah". While I cashed tickets. Now of course it has gone the other way where all of the value has been sucked out. But the minute you say something about 500 plate appearances, you show that while you might do well in season-long fantasy baseball, you don't understand baseball betting.

I understand baseball betting. And current trend betting. So does your linemaker, who has baked in the trends. I would rather speculate on who, among the #'s 2, 4, 5, 6, or 7 in GP's opener, can run third or fourth today in a vertical exotic. To get a roughly similar projected return (6-1), I would need to bet a three team parlay in baseball.

I'm much more confident in the running styles of horses, the projected inner dynamics of a race, and the relatively inefficient market in those lower rungs of a vertical exotic, than I am in, say, Jose Quintana beating Alex Wood on April 20 by 1.5 runs, when the Correa-aided Mets invade SF for the first time, for roughly a 6-5 return.

[Johnny V]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

I wouldn't touch baseball...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/

One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).

I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.

Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml

Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.

I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.

Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today?

Interesting article. I did not read the paper those college professors wrote but the article makes the case that baseball has the most amount of luck, smallest home team advantage and according to them is the closest thing to a coin toss of any other sport. I think the NHL has the best home field advantage and baseball the worst. It is usually right around 54% home field advantage for baseball.
Of course there is the "luck" factor. The best teams though usually make the best luck. They don't get unlucky and blow the big leads like the poor teams. The poor manager is unlucky because he takes the pitcher out to soon or too late. Its kind of like how the best boxer always seem to land that "lucky" punch.
If any team goes 4-3 over each 7 game series of games they are in the playoffs. Parity, maybe. If we look at the top 8 teams their record playing against clubs with a record of over .500 was .540.
For me I think baseball is best sport to bet, depending on if you are getting a dime line. The mass of statistics available to predict the outcome of baseball games are very relevant whether you are betting the sides, totals, run line or even props.
As far as Benter goes I think I remember I read somewhere that he was making a profit in baseball but it was not what he had hoped. I don't know if that is true or not. Maybe he bailed too early. I don't know. I would be pretty sure with all his knowledge he could do very well. Just my two cents.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Johnny V

I think the NHL has the best home field advantage

no -


in the NHL 59% of games are won by the home team


in the NBA 62.7% of games are won by the home team


if you want to consider soccer - 69.1% of games are won by U.S. major league soccer teams



https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/...f%20the%20time.


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