"Fed Up With the CAWs..."

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

AMWager:
https://www.amwager.com/file-upload-wagering/


Xpressbet:
https://dfu.xb-online.com/wagerupload/betupload.aspx


BetPTC
They offered text file upload. (Recall them being the very first to offer it.) But they were recently acquired and their site now redirects to https://www.pointsbetracing.com/ which bears lettering that says "Powered by 1/ST" (I suspect that's the same platform under the hood as Xpressbet.)

A Google search for the phrase "pointsbet racing text file upload" (without the quotes) didn't turn up any hits. Call the number on the Pointsbet Racing site and ask.


Twinspires
I never placed a wager with them. But a Google search for the phrase "Twinspires text file upload" (without the quotes) turned up the following link:
https://www.twinspires.com/batch-upload

If, like you say, they removed it and never brought it back then the page at the above link is just a remnant.


NYRA Bets
I never placed a wager with them. A Google search for the phrase "NYRA Bets text file upload" (without the quotes) didn't turn up any hits.

Maybe someone who uses NYRA Bets can chime in.



-jp
.

Thank you Jeff for taking the time to do some research on this. Unfortunately I believe that Twinspires link is several years old as the directions on it lead to a dead end. Got my hopes up there for a second again.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

The racing product is still well supported by people living in Hong Kong looking to have some fun and do a little gambling.

Here in the US you have that same crowd. (But except for special event days they've gravitated towards the casino.)

One result of the general public embracing horse racing at Happy Valley and Sha Tin:

Elite money as a percentage of handle in every pool is significantly lower than that of US pools. (Although percentage of elite handle is higher present day vs. when Benter and Woods started betting there.)

Imo, there are reasons the general public still supports racing in Hong Kong but not so much here in the US.

Among those reasons I would list field size, takeout relative to field size, access to data/stats at the Hong Kong Jockey Club site, and transparency,

Field Size
Hong Kong enjoys an average field size of about 12 vs. average field size of 7.59 here in the US for 2022.

The Paulick Report | by Dick Powell |10-14-2021
Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI:
https://paulickreport.com/horseplaye...ainers-by-roi/

Takeout Relative to Field Size
According to the Paulick Report article above: "Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5%" --

Given avg field size of 12 win pool takeout in Hong Kong works out to about 1.46% per runner.

Applying the same takeout rate to avg field size of 7.59 win pool takeout here in the US works out to 2.31% per runner.

Put another way: win pool takeout per runner here in the US is about 1.58 TIMES higher than win pool takeout per runner in Hong Kong.

-jp
.

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not questioning why Hong Kong "was" doing so well or what's going on here.

I'm questioning why Hong Kong continues to do so well despite an army of math/computer guys betting into their pools also and making their odds more efficient.

Jeff you’re certainly“Preaching to the Choir” with those accurate comments.
However, I would only add one other significant factor that in my opinion that makes HK racing the best on the planet: The strict enforcement of regulations governing racing time drug use. This alone effects the state of the entire game and its perception by its local patrons and those abroad.
Although their O.A. racing program has no interest in the breeding aspect of the industry, they maintain a clean game because they strictly race for the sake of racing and their patrons know it.

.
.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

3. They have better tote models than we do because we don't have any.

Totally Untrue!
They get the exact same information that I receive from AmWager every 30 seconds.
Besides, who is "We"? Maybe you, but certainly not those armed with a solid tote analysis program.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, the odds simply don’t tell the entire story. For heaven's sake doesn't anyone realize that its only the action in the Win pool!

There is money being bet else where during each betting cycle and the algorithms the CAW's use may be just as sophisticated as any good independent tote analysis program that includes the other available real time betting information.
.
.

[iamt]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Totally Untrue!
They get the exact same information that I receive from AmWager every 30 seconds.
Besides, who is "We"? Maybe you, but certainly not those armed with a solid tote analysis program.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, the odds simply don’t tell the entire story. For heaven's sake doesn't anyone realize that its only the action in the Win pool!

There is money being bet else where during each betting cycle and the algorithms the CAW's use may be just as sophisticated as any good independent tote analysis program that includes the other available real time betting information.
.
.

It might pay if you understood exactly what Dave was talking about here. It is certainly steps removed away from what you seem to think.

[Sheffwed]

this would all be fine, except the CAWs seem to win much more often when they pound something down and if all else were equal, you'd expect an equal number of times, prices would drift that they weren't punching last minute, and there would be an equal number of prices therefore higher than one expected at the last minute due to last minute movements up

maybe it's a perception thing, but someone should test this

the reason I stopped betting on harness racing, was that after awhile I assumed the races were fixed when favorites paid less than they should have, as it is easy to hide the extra wagers, the favorite won, what's fishy about that, so they are 2-5 instead of 1-1

someone could figure this out if they had the time and machine power and wanted to

how many CAW wagers were made within the last minute of wagering before a race are successful or not

how many times do horses odds go way up last minute and win on the other side of this ledger

I get that CAWs goal is to break even and profit off the rebates, which should be illegal or equally shared with all gamblers (someone should file a class action suit actually)

if CAWs are winning more than not, then something else is likely fishy

and yes, this is not an issue in HK at all, how about that

how many scandals were caused in racing in the past by just the right number of horses not trying their best, for one example

whose dogs were given too much water

etc

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Totally Untrue!
They get the exact same information that I receive from AmWager every 30 seconds.
Besides, who is "We"? Maybe you, but certainly not those armed with a solid tote analysis program.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, the odds simply don’t tell the entire story. For heaven's sake doesn't anyone realize that its only the action in the Win pool!

There is money being bet else where during each betting cycle and the algorithms the CAW's use may be just as sophisticated as any good independent tote analysis program that includes the other available real time betting information.
.
.

Before you put a UNTRUE tag on something I post, perhaps you should make sure that you understand the words.

"Models" means they have a database of tote history and the ability to analyze it.

It does not mean they have superior access.

While they can hit the tote system at will, they still get the same information that is available to everyone else.

That information is not updated from the sources any faster; only the dissemination is faster.



EDIT

It might pay if you understood exactly what Dave was talking about here. It is certainly steps removed away from what you seem to think.

Sorry, I missed your post.
Thank you for getting it right.

[Robert Fischer]

Hong Kong - I'd move there for a job. Racing is Racing.
As far as a Utopia?
Have to remember that a lot (including the medications) are controlled by fallible humans. Federal or not, you give them absolute power and you hope to get a pure product.


couple more awful exactas /CAW_NYRA and then I quit for the night

Twitter

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[crestridge]

Jeff

Did they post a separate report on just dirt stats, and a separate report on just Turf stats?

[sjk]

Sometimes the prices go up. The other day I had one that was paying $267 when I bet it and I got $400 when it got home.

Generally anything with a favorite involved will go down.

All of this discussion of this race or that race seems off target to me. The main question is how are you doing after 100 races or 1000 races. Even then it is very hard to know what your rate of return is. Do you measure it after you cash a nice winner or after a long losing streak (I was 0 for 64 in March).

As Dave pointed out in some other thread if you are chasing value it is most often found in the lower probability outcomes. My win rate is half of what it was 10 or 20 years ago but that is where the value is to the extent that I can still find it.

It seems amazing to me that the CAWs have enough confidence that they know what their return will be since the landscape has evolved enormously over the years and if they miscalculate by a few percentage points they might wind up on the losing end.

[The_Turf_Monster]

I think the bottom line here is that the tracks allowing these are a penny smart and a pound foolish. With NYRA having wagering pool integrity called into question despite the size of its handle that should act as a deterrent to late odds swings, the only two left are the BC and KD. I don’t care what the rationale is for the CAW’s making these wagers, it shouldn’t even be a discussion to remove them from the pools. This isn’t some kind of civil right that would be infringed on

[classhandicapper]

Just a couple of notes on that #2 the other day.

1. David Aragona (who is very sharp) made Coppola a value selection play that day and wanted 9-1 on the horse. I don’t want to red board what I think was a fair price, but he went off at 15.70 - 1. If David saw good value there, I’m sure others did also. So it’s likely the exacta payoff was more in line with the horse’s chances than the Win pool and he was a huge overlay in the Win pool.

2. I asked on Twitter if the horse got hammered late using multiple horses. I didn’t get a reply with screen shots, but it’s very likely they didn’t just hammer the #2 with the winner. They used him broadly and drove him down to an overall fairer price in that pool.

3. One other very small contribution could be that exacta combinations with horses coming out of the same race seem to get bet a little more than others. I think it’s kind of like “if I like the race the #2 is coming out of I probably like a couple of the other horses out of that race a bit also”. The winner and 2nd place horse came out of the same race.

IMO It wasn’t the exacta price that was cheap, it was the win odds that were too high.

[Parkview_Pirate]

CAWs are only one of the problems with racing, and a minor one (IMHO) at that. I don't bet the way they do, so my only real beef with them are the rebates. They get handle based cake, I get laughable crumbs. Not sure where TLG gets the 2% higher impact on takeout due to these rebates, but I do agree the players have gotten much sharper than "the good old days".

Drugs are a HUGE problem. Agree with Nitro that HK racing's best point is that they are cleaner - helping prevent issues with drugs, with poor performing favorites, shady ownership, and with a close eye on trainers and jockeys. In the US, racing has become a racket - just like other businesses (health care, financials, education, bloated government, etc). Trainers using drugs only have a slap on the wrist to risk with huge profits to gain. The shadowy world of enforcement (TRPB) is as laughable as the rebate crumbs.

Another reason HK racing does well is the culture. Their fan base does not shy away from a complex hobby like the ponies. Here in the US with our culture of immediate gratification with no effort (look at the school systems) and no penalty for sub-par results, we've churned out younger generations that can't even begin to understand how to handicap. Coupled with the extreme takeouts and the almost certain losses, it's no mystery to me why the sport is having a tough time attracting new players.

I think the biggest problem in racing today is the economics. Racing is entertainment, and reliant on discretionary dollars. The pool of discretionary dollars is shrinking as the American Empire contracts, and the economy does likewise. Tax breaks for owners have changed, driving a lot of smaller concerns out, and impacting the creation of a next generation. Those of us who've played this game for 30 or 40 or 50 years had the luxury of having a few extra bucks to spend on the ponies when times were better. The younger crowd and some of us old geezers aren't flush with cash any longer, and are forced to really cut back on wagering or abandon it all together.

Racing will endure at a much smaller, localized level. Takeout will probably have to be so high nobody will be able to make a living just on wagering. There is no "fixing" the game without a booming economy, and that is extremely unlikely.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Just a couple of notes on that #2 the other day.

1. David Aragona (who is very sharp) made Coppola a value selection play that day and wanted 9-1 on the horse. I don’t want to red board what I think was a fair price, but he went off at 15.70 - 1. If David saw good value there, I’m sure others did also. So it’s likely the exacta payoff was more in line with the horse’s chances than the Win pool and he was a huge overlay in the Win pool.

2. I asked on Twitter if the horse got hammered late using multiple horses. I didn’t get a reply with screen shots, but it’s very likely they didn’t just hammer the #2 with the winner. They used him broadly and drove him down to an overall fairer price in that pool.

3. One other very small contribution could be that exacta combinations with horses coming out of the same race seem to get bet a little more than others. I think it’s kind of like “if I like the race the #2 is coming out of I probably like a couple of the other horses out of that race a bit also”. The winner and 2nd place horse came out of the same race.

IMO It wasn’t the exacta price that was cheap, it was the win odds that were too high.

it's not so much who they used, but who they eliminated. If the syndicate suddenly stopped betting High Note (or whatever his name is the Irad Ortiz, ..
why did they do that? It seems like if we include everyone elses's late wagers, that the syndicates bet as much or more on the speed , than the .
was potentially loose speed on a pressured pace. was solid darkened form and had Saez up. The was an uncoupled entry with team-members Manny and Jose up. These were the main horses used. A little sprinking on the . Nothing at all on the , tiny tiny bit on
But why was the seemingly bet by the syndicates to the level of the ?
why wasn't the 3 bet?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

But why was the seemingly bet by the syndicates to the level of the ?
why wasn't the 3 bet?

We can’t get into their heads on the handicapping, but we know they make VALUE decisions. If their fair odds on the #2 was less than 9-1 (like David Aragona) and he was over 15-1 in the exacta pool at the time, you pound the hell out of all the overlaid combinations using him. For all we know, if the Win pool was still open to them in those last seconds they would have knocked him down to 7-1 or 8-1 in that pool.

[metro]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

CAWs are only one of the problems with racing, and a minor one (IMHO) at that. I don't bet the way they do, so my only real beef with them are the rebates. They get handle based cake, I get laughable crumbs. Not sure where TLG gets the 2% higher impact on takeout due to these rebates, but I do agree the players have gotten much sharper than "the good old days".

Drugs are a HUGE problem. Agree with Nitro that HK racing's best point is that they are cleaner - helping prevent issues with drugs, with poor performing favorites, shady ownership, and with a close eye on trainers and jockeys. In the US, racing has become a racket - just like other businesses (health care, financials, education, bloated government, etc). Trainers using drugs only have a slap on the wrist to risk with huge profits to gain. The shadowy world of enforcement (TRPB) is as laughable as the rebate crumbs.

Another reason HK racing does well is the culture. Their fan base does not shy away from a complex hobby like the ponies. Here in the US with our culture of immediate gratification with no effort (look at the school systems) and no penalty for sub-par results, we've churned out younger generations that can't even begin to understand how to handicap. Coupled with the extreme takeouts and the almost certain losses, it's no mystery to me why the sport is having a tough time attracting new players.

I think the biggest problem in racing today is the economics. Racing is entertainment, and reliant on discretionary dollars. The pool of discretionary dollars is shrinking as the American Empire contracts, and the economy does likewise. Tax breaks for owners have changed, driving a lot of smaller concerns out, and impacting the creation of a next generation. Those of us who've played this game for 30 or 40 or 50 years had the luxury of having a few extra bucks to spend on the ponies when times were better. The younger crowd and some of us old geezers aren't flush with cash any longer, and are forced to really cut back on wagering or abandon it all together.

Racing will endure at a much smaller, localized level. Takeout will probably have to be so high nobody will be able to make a living just on wagering. There is no "fixing" the game without a booming economy, and that is extremely unlikely.

ADWs give rebates based on handle, usually required handle. There are pros out there betting six figures monthly that are rewarded with high rebates as well likely 8-10%, not what the CAWs get but comparable. Every poster on this site that plays the game is likely getting some level of a rebate as well, amount based on their volume of play.

IDC about who gets what or if someone else gets 10% to my 1%, they are all helping keep the game afloat. Call it a necessary evil. Just don't be one of those cats that get 10% and cry because the CAWs are getting 14%. It's hypocritical.

As far as HK goes you really can't compare horse racing there against it here. it's like trying to compare social issues, gun control, crime etc.. between the two. It's a completely different society. Their #1 sport participation sports are badmitton and swimming! What else are they gonna bet on!