Good Ole D Wayne Lukas

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There's a subtle difference between babying horses, seeking logical challenges, and spotting your horses in off the wall spots where there have little chance of winning or where the races aren't part of some logical progression.

For example, I would argue that Wise Dan should start in a some 1m or 1 1/8M races on the turf again this year. Then they could take a shot in a couple of middle distance races on dirt and/or synthetic for a challenge. Depending on how he does, then they could consider either stretching him out on turf (1 1/4) or running in the BC Classic later in the year. But they could always fall back to the Turf Mile again if he disappoints or looks like he doesn't want to stretch out.

A guy like Lukas would probably start with the Donn. No matter what he does, Dubai at 10F on synth would be next. Even if he got buried in Dubai, he'd wind up in the Met next. Then he'd ship out west for some 1 1/4 turf race. Then he'd be in the Gold Cup on his way to the BC Classic or BC Turf Classic no matter how he handled dirt or distance previously.

Every once in awhile some horse is going to come along and be good enough and versatile enough to stand up to that lunacy, but he'd ruin a bunch of campaigns also.

The idea is to find a scenario that would give the horse a shot for extraordinary accomplishment, but in a more reasonable way.

What horse has he campaigned like this?

Has he ever been to Dubai? I can't recall the last horse he ran in the Met Mile. Such exaggeration.

Where are you on Joe Gluepot who can't figure out the right distance or surface for a cheap horse?

[pele polo]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

What's the line on Strong Mandate being sound by year's end?
Anyone?

I'd make it -2.00 No

Hopefully, he'll be retired to stud by then with a relatively minor injury.

"Precocious 2yo that peaked at Saratoga, and just never trained on."
Hmmmm......

Anyone know what happened to that good turf horse Optimizer ?
They were running him about every month into the early summer when they finally realized the horse needed a break,
and wasn't performing.
Hmmmm.....

Nice horse....runs good on soft turf, too.
He's no Wise Dan , but who is?
I'd like to see him make it back to the races, or make a stallion.

D. Wayne Lukas.
Legendary HOF trainer? Yes.
Especially with deep pocket owners like the late Gene Klein around.
Do you have to like everything about his M.O. with horses?
I think not.

Optimizer is back on Big Cap day in the Frank Kilroe.

Oxbow retiring was not Lukas' decision. If it was up t him he'd have been back this year.

If it was John Sheriffs or one of those types handling Optimzer and he had a break from late last August til this March it would be considered a freshening and they'd be praised for it.

Compared to today's standards he ran WTC and Optimizer into the ground yet they're still around as 4 & 5 year olds respectively and competing in grade 1s legitimately. He doesn't have as many horses now as some may think.

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

What horse has he campaigned like this?

Has he ever been to Dubai? I can't recall the last horse he ran in the Met Mile. Such exaggeration. He has 3 met mile winners.. not recently though, from 90's

Where are you on Joe Gluepot who can't figure out the right distance or surface for a cheap horse?

I am not contesting your questions. Just making a remark.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

What horse has he campaigned like this?

Has he ever been to Dubai? I can't recall the last horse he ran in the Met Mile. Such exaggeration.

Where are you on Joe Gluepot who can't figure out the right distance or surface for a cheap horse?

He was saying how Lukas spots horses aggressively He was being sarcastic in a funny way. Catch a grip u getting ur panties in an uproar.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by pele polo

Optimizer is back on Big Cap day in the Frank Kilroe.

Thanks

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

He was saying how Lukas spots horses aggressively He was being sarcastic in a funny way.

Yes. IMO he's often aggressive in ways that aren't logical given the way the horse is performing on the track to that point. There are times when you already know what you have and should back off and go to the appropriate class level, distance, and surface and stop going for glory or experimenting.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Yes. IMO he's often aggressive in ways that aren't logical given the way the horse is performing on the track to that point. There are times when you already know what you have and should back off and go to the appropriate class level, distance, and surface and stop going for glory or experimenting.

Case in point-Unstoppable Colby



Go get em D Wayne.....

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

Case in point-Unstoppable Colby



Go get em D Wayne.....

IMO....

Running that horse in the Smarty Jones isn't what I would have done. But given the field was soft for a purse that high, if he thought the horse was improving rapidly enough to hit the board it wasn't that bad an idea.

It turned into a wasted race though.

That horse might have broken his maiden 1 race sooner and then won or picked up some more money in a NW1 and developed further.

For every time he successfully pulls off that move into a stake, there will be 20 than turn out like this. And this wasn't even that bad a move.

So what's the ROI on that? That's what I am asking.

That horse is improving and still has a chance to be very good. I would try to find a NW1 or soft stake for his next start unless I was 100% sure he improved a lot. I would not throw him to the wolves trying to earn Derby points and potentially ruin him or waste another race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

Case in point-Unstoppable Colby



Go get em D Wayne.....

How many trainers in the game do you think would give their left arm to switch places with D Wayne? I'm betting quite a few...

[speed]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

How many trainers in the game do you think would give their left arm to switch places with D Wayne? I'm betting quite a few...

You don't know how correct you are. Every time my trainer wants to make a comment on this board, i have to do the typing.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

How many trainers in the game do you think would give their left arm to switch places with D Wayne? I'm betting quite a few...

Im sure many trainers would like his stock. As far as how he trains and spots horses I would take 500 trainers over him any day.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO....

Running that horse in the Smarty Jones isn't what I would have done. But given the field was soft for a purse that high, if he thought the horse was improving rapidly enough to hit the board it wasn't that bad an idea.

It turned into a wasted race though.

That horse might have broken his maiden 1 race sooner and then won or picked up some more money in a NW1 and developed further.

For every time he successfully pulls off that move into a stake, there will be 20 than turn out like this. And this wasn't even that bad a move.

So what's the ROI on that? That's what I am asking.

That horse is improving and still has a chance to be very good. I would try to find a NW1 or soft stake for his next start unless I was 100% sure he improved a lot. I would not throw him to the wolves trying to earn Derby points and potentially ruin him or waste another race.

Don't you think the race today (San Felipe) is a lot tougher race than the Smarty Jones? I know I do but good ole D Wayne thinks otherwise. Why not break the Maiden, win the N1X and then look for a tougher spot. Hell why not wait for the Rebel at Oaklawn insteading of spending 10K to ship the horse to Cali. Makes no sense.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

Im sure many trainers would like his stock. As far as how he trains and spots horses I would take 500 trainers over him any day.

You lose SO much credibility with your hyperbole. Comments like this and calling him a goofball just come across as immature and ignorant and take away from any salient points you may have.

I am a huge Lukas fan and would mirror all of Pace's posts but like you said in an earlier post, we agree to disagree. That being said, Lukas's way of managing horses can be seen in Will Take Charge and I can't remember being as excited as I am for today's race. His strategy of being aggressive that you have so much of an issue with can be seen in WTC's campaign and led to this matchup being possible. Most other horses would be retired by now.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

Don't you think the race today (San Felipe) is a lot tougher race than the Smarty Jones? I know I do but good ole D Wayne thinks otherwise. Why not break the Maiden, win the N1X and then look for a tougher spot. Hell why not wait for the Rebel at Oaklawn insteading of spending 10K to ship the horse to Cali. Makes no sense.

I agree with you.

Unless he knows for sure the horse has moved forward a lot since his last start (which is certainly possible), I would run in a NW1 given that horse's PPs so far. Even if the horse has moved forward a lot and he's confident he will be competitive in a stake, why ship to CA when there stakes right at home? It's not like the crop out there is terrible.

Lukas is a hall of fame trainer with incredible accomplishments. Part of it was stock, part of was great horsemanship, part of it was hall of fame assistants, and part of it was the upside of his aggressiveness. But IMHO, some people evaluate him based on his successes without acknowledging his shortcomings, one of which is being too aggressive, wasting starts, and running horses when they are clearly done.

It's not that different among handicappers.

If one guy put 100K into the place pools and made 10K and some other guy put 100k into trifectas, supers, pick 3s 4s, 6s etc... and made 2k, everyone would be talking about the latter because of the major scores and longshots he picked along the way while the first guy was cashing 80% of the time at $2.80. But whose results are better?

If the horse runs very well his fans will remember it. If the horse is never in contention it will be forgotten. Most people are searching for fame and glory.

[PhantomOnTour]

Does anyone think Hofmans is being a "goofball" for entering Schoolofhardrocks off a MSW win in Aug and no races since?

The Lukas horse in this race doesn't seem like an odd placement.
By the way - did you follow along and play that horse 2nd time over the OP track and catch the 9-2 winner? That's the time to bet D Wayne !