2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

UPDATE- R#9- 1800M Gr1 (9F)T..…1-2-10 W/ 12-3-7 …...4:15 AM EST

5-1-4-2– Dutch Loss 12% Profit Margin-Passed / Good early action on the BIG LS winner #5 but was dropped

[Nitro]

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....2-1-10 W/3-12-6 …....4:50 AM EST

4-6-11-12– Dutch Loss 63% Profit Margin-Passed / No action on the BIG LS winner #4

It turned out to be another profitable card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 47%, and came from hitting 3 of 4 playable races.

[ROK]

Dear Nitro,

You wrote:" You and the other skeptics never got it because although the profit margins varied when converting to US$, the bottom line was always the hit frequency."

This is untrue. You were counting 1-1 as 2-1, 2-1 as 3-1 and 3-1 as 4-1 etc. etc. when calculating your profit margins.

So, either, you had no idea what you were doing and couldn't admit you had made a big mistake, or you were intentionally inflating your returns.

You have no other options. But I do think that you deserve a third option.

You seem capable of doing both! :-))

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ROK

Dear Nitro,

You wrote:" You and the other skeptics never got it because although the profit margins varied when converting to US$, the bottom line was always the hit frequency."

This is untrue. You were counting 1-1 as 2-1, 2-1 as 3-1 and 3-1 as 4-1 etc. etc. when calculating your profit margins.

So, either, you had no idea what you were doing and couldn't admit you had made a big mistake, or you were intentionally inflating your returns.

You have no other options. But I do think that you deserve a third option.

You seem capable of doing both! :-))

Obviously, my explanation and admission to inflating the profit margins went right over your head! (Post #509 – 1st paragraph)

And BTW its ABSOLUTELY TRUE that the actual Dutch HIT Frequency takes precedence over the Profit margin.
The profit margin in my scheme of play only limits the action if the totaled O.A. margin is less than 50%.
The inflated profit margins do only one thing: Permit more action! (Which BTW produced more hits even when the margin was adjusted and corrected to show up below 50%)

Maybe you could explain how a projected Profit Margin of ANY dimension is of ANY value if you’re not actually winning the bet?

I have plenty of options of my own volition my friend.
One them is a choice to deal with those like you who apparently have nothing better to do than project that ever present envious and skeptical attitude toward others who have clearly demonstrated some success at what they do.
I’m certainly capable of reversing that decision too.
.
.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. February 20, 2019 48th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 69 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ESE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190220_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 Joyful Union (9-2) First time starter in Hong Kong after winning two in New Zealand, but his trainer is 0 for 58 so far this year at Happy Valley.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 322 (Winners: 2nd & 4th, Second: 6th & 11th)
Race 1 The Happy Bunch (5-1)
Race 2 Doctors Delight (15-1)

Race 286 (Winners: 2nd, 4th & 11th)
Race 3 General Trump (15-1)

Race 6 (Winners: 4th, 5th & 9th, Second: 2nd)
Race 4 Winning Controller (25-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Trendiful (6-1)
Race 2 Wealthy Fortune (14-1)
Race 7 Fairy Twins (22-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 4 Champion’s Way (4-5)
Race 4 Little Wise Man (9-2)
Race 8 Har Har Heart (9-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 Goko (26-1)
Race 8 Har Har Heart (9-2)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
None

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 7 Little Bird (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 My Blessing (10-1)
Race 5 Midnight Rattler (9-1)
Race 8 All You Know (9-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. There are many races on today’s card that seem unusually more wide open and the top 3 selections may have to be altered due to the live tote activities. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T…….2-12-1 W/ 4-11-3 …...6:15 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#2- 1800M C5 (9F)T….…2-11-7 W/ 8-1-4 …..…6:45 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…….8-9-6 W/ 3-4-10 ....7:15 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...1-2-6 W/ 10-9-7 ……..7:45 AM

R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….…11-1-6 W/ 7-5-8 ……8:15 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#6- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..8-10-3 W/ 2-9-5 ……..8:45 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#7– 1000M C3 (5F)T…...1-6-2 W/ 5-12-3 .......9:15 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T....8-9-1 W/ 4-7-10 …..…9:50 AM
(May sub any one of bottom 3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
.
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T…….2-12-1 W/ 4-11-3 …...6:15 AM

8-1-2-4– Dutch Loss 105% Margin/

R#2- 1800M C5 (9F)T….…2-11-7 W/ 8-1-4 …..…6:45 AM

7-1-12-5– Dutch Win 71% Margin/ $14.90 Quinella

R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…….8-9-6 W/ 3-4-10 ....7:15 AM

6-12-2-9– Big Dutch Win 141% Margin/

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...1-2-6 W/ 10-9-7 ……..7:45 AM

1-8-2-11– Dutch Win 2% Margin/Passed –

R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….…11-1-6 W/ 7-5-8 ……8:15 AM

6-5-11-3– BIG Dutch Win 235% Margin / $39.10 Quinella & $765.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#6- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..8-10-3 W/ 2-9-5 ……..8:45 AM

3-10-4-9– Dutch Win 65% Margin/ $37.10 Quinella

**Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race. Hit 4 of 5 possible plays & finishing today’s card with a healthy 85% O.A. Profit Margin!

R#7– 1000M C3 (5F)T…...1-6-2 W/ 5-12-3 .......9:15 AM

2-1-12-10– Dutch Win 80% Margin-Passed Quota Reached / $26.10 Quinella & $923.00 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T....8-9-1 W/ 4-7-10 …..…9:50 AM

9-3-11-8– Dutch Win 59% Margin-Passed Quota Reached /

It turned out to be another very profitable card! My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 85% and was hit from the first 4 of 5 playable races. Also hit (but passed) the last 2 races and hit a couple of nice Triples.
.
.

[formula_2002]

nitro, I looked at your last race and made some analysis.
based on the final odds (your bet odds may be different)
your $1 return was $1.63
based on the "true odds" as adjusted for track take out, the min $1 return to break even would be $1.97

your comments would be appreciated

Thanks

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

nitro, I looked at your last race and made some analysis.
based on the final odds (your bet odds may be different)
your $1 return was $1.63
based on the "true odds" as adjusted for track take out, the min $1 return to break even would be $1.97

your comments would be appreciated

Thanks

Unfortunately I can’t display your request because all of my tote information reflects the actual odds as displayed by the HKJC. The odds shown for both Win & Place ALWAYS represent the expected return value. The typical HK take-out of 17 ½% from these pools is removed before the odds are publicly displayed during any typical betting cycle.

After the HK odds (both static and dynamic) are input into my tote analysis (in the form of HK$), 1 point is deducted to reflect the US$ odds equivalent. Again, the corresponding final US$ odds represent the actual return one would expect to receive. (There is no take-out or adjustment after-the-fact) In other words WYSIWYG!

[formula_2002]

[QUOTE=Nitro; other words WYSIWYG![/QUOTE]

INDEED!!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. February 24, 2019… 49th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 66 Degrees Cloudy 90% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190224_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 361 (Winners: 1st & 7th, Second: 3rd & 6th)
Race 4 Intrepic (12-1)

Race 335 (Winners: 2nd & 7th, Second: 11th)
Race 5 Superior Boy (11-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Victory Boys (7-1)
Race 10 Good Fit (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Flying Noble (9-2)
Race 2 Superich (2-1)
Race 2 Time To Celebrate (4-5)
Race 3 Dor Dor (5-1)
Race 4 Chairman Lo (9-5)
Race 6 I Do (4-5)
Race 8 Tianchi Monster (5-2)
Race 9 Full Of Beauty (3-5)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 2 Superich (2-1)
Race 7 Refined Treasure (9-5)
Race 10 King Genki (10-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 Moment Of Power (17-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Circuit Three (7-2) First time starter out of the Tony Cruz barn caught a field that looked to be dominated by other first time starters especially after the post time favourite acted up in the gate and was scratched. He was extremely slow out of the gate losing at least two lengths to the field, he then placed himself in the back half of the field while racing on the rail, moved to three path entering the stretch looking for running room while being stuck behind a wall of three. In the stretch he showed his inexperience racing in and out, and when he did have room he responded to the stick from Teetan switched back to his proper lead and was full of run at the wire and galloped out past the easy winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 6 I Do (4-5)
Race 8 Vincy (12-1)

Key Plays:
Race 3 Voyage Star (2-1)
Race 6 Sunny Power (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 Daring Heart (14-1)
Race 1 Best Effort (17-1)
Race 4 Seize The Spirit (47-1)
Race 8 Vincy (12-1)
Race 9 Honest Way (11-1)

[Nitro]

Hey there Woody!
I couldn't help but notice that some of your selections are already getting some early (static) tote activity.

GL this morning!

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 to be run on Turf and 2 on the Dirt:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1400M C5 (7F)T…. 1-3-2 W/ 10-4-6 …...12:00 AM
(May sub #10, #5 or #6 into top 3 & #11 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#2- 1600M C2 (8F)T.… 4-5-6 W/ 3-1--- ………12:30 AM
(May sub #1 or #3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T… 12-2-10 W/ 9-13-11 ….1:00 AM
(May sub #9 or #11 into top 3 & #3 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T….. 7-1-3 W/ 12-9-10 …...1:30 AM
(May sub #12, #9, or #10 into top 3 & #13 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D… 11-1-4 W/ 9-10-8...2:00 AM
(May sub #9, #10 or #8 into top 3 & #2 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#6- 1600M C4 (8F)D….. 3-9-4 W/ 6-1-7 ……..2:35 AM
(May sub #6, #1 or #7 into top 3 & #12 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#7– 1000M C2 (5F)T….. 4-12-2 W/ 5-1-7 .......3:05 AM
(May sub #5, #1 or #7 into top 3 & #3 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 2000M C3 (10F)T..… 3-2-1 W/ 5-8-9 ..…3:35 AM
(May sub #5, #8 or #9 into top 3 & #4 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T.…. 3-5-6 W/ 1-12-14 …..4:10 AM
(May sub #1, #12 or #14 into top 3 & #9 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

R#10- 1650M C3 (8.25F)D... 2-3-5 W/ 7-4-10 ….4:45 AM
(May sub #7, #4, or #10 into top 3 & #1 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
.
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1400M C5 (7F)T…. 1-2-4 W/ 10-3-6 - Solid action on #4 as betting Fav sub for #3 (no action) …...12:00 AM
(May sub #10, #4 or #6 into top 3 & #11 into bottom 3 if live tote dictates)

4-6-7-10– Dutch Win 91% Profit Margin/ $29.40 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#2- 1600M C2 (8F)T.… 4-5-6 W/ 3-1--- ………12:30 AM
(May sub #1 or #3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

4-5-2-6– Dutch Win 34% Profit Margin/Passed – $22.10 Quinella