Trump tariffs are hurting the economy....err...

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

A real estate lending crisis is probably the single most destructive event the present day US economy can endure. Real estate lending is an enormous economical driver.

The real estate market is stagnant and declining in every major sector in the US.....Any kind of further economic tightening will spell doom in the coming spring.

[woodtoo]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Some are... probably... some aren't...

The Steel and Aluminum Tariffs was an opening shot not aimed at anything if you're of the opinion it was created for negotiating leverage.

A good example would be this trade fight with China... On the whole I have no problem admitting China isn't a fair player and don't mind an aggressive policy towards correcting it. The problem is you do that by building coalitions, blocks, and goodwill to attack the bad actor from all sides. You don't open up that battle withdrawing from a major trade agreement designed to directly counterbalance China and then piss off all your allies with an opening salvo of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs directed at nothing and everyone at the same time.

This gets to the real problem with Trump trade policy... its incoherent. He can't articulate what he wants and in regards to those particular tariffs no real demands were even made so... the new normal?

That seems the most logical answer.

Certainly more logical than the 8 Dimensional Chess some people claim he's playing...

When are you running? The country needs you NOW!!

[snappit]

Originally Posted by reckless

The EU is in a recession.

Really? As an EU citizen (at least until March 29th) that's news to me.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

How much in additional farm subsidies have we given out to offset retaliation?

None that I’m aware of. China just bought a pile of beans too

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by chadk66

None that I’m aware of. China just bought a pile of beans too

I guess in TrumpLand $12 billion is nothing.

America’s farmers have been shut out of foreign markets, hit with retaliatory tariffs and lost lucrative contracts in the face of President Trump’s trade war. But a $12 billion bailout program Mr. Trump created to “make it up” to farmers has done little to cushion the blow, with red tape and long waiting periods resulting in few payouts so far.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/u...trade-war.html

[reckless]

Originally Posted by snappit

Really? As an EU citizen (at least until March 29th) that's news to me.

Maybe you're better off than your EU neighbors, I guess. Good.

LONDON (AP) – A closely watched survey shows that economic growth across the 19-country eurozone dipped further at the start of 2019 to its lowest level in five-and-a-half years.

Financial information company IHS Markit said Tuesday that its composite purchasing managers index – a gauge of business activity across the manufacturing and services sector – fell to 51.0 points in January from 51.1 the previous month. Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.

As a result, the firm said its survey suggests that the eurozone is growing at a tepid 0.1 percent quarterly tick at the start of the year.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/201...rther-in-2019/

[snappit]

Originally Posted by reckless

Maybe you're better off than your EU neighbors, I guess. Good.




https://www.breitbart.com/europe/201...rther-in-2019/

Yes, but that's not in recession. There's no doubt the economies in some European countries are stagnating and not performing well but I believe only Italy has been in recession. Also, much of this has to do with the uncertainty over Brexit. There are now 50 days to go before we are due to leave the EU much will depend on whether a deal can be struck before then or we leave without a deal. If we leave with no deal then the chance of a recession will be quite high.

You also need to draw a distinction between the EU and the Eurozone, they are not the same thing.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by snappit

Yes, but that's not in recession. There's no doubt the economies in some European countries are stagnating and not performing well but I believe only Italy has been in recession. Also, much of this has to do with the uncertainty over Brexit. There are now 50 days to go before we are due to leave the EU much will depend on whether a deal can be struck before then or we leave without a deal. If we leave with no deal then the chance of a recession will be quite high.

You also need to draw a distinction between the EU and the Eurozone, they are not the same thing.

You are correct that there is a distinction between the EU and the Eurozone, which I should have made.

Take aside the nuanced definition of what a recession is, Europe is and has been in a downward economic cycle for a while now, do you agree?

The EU will actually need the UK more than ever. Brexit needs to happen. The UK could make trade deals with every country in the world using WTO treaty. Germany needs the UK more than the Brits need Germany, imo. And the EU has practically killed the farming industry in Ireland.

When the UK leaves, yes, the markets will be shaken but they should not crater because this delay has gone on too long and the Brussels brainiacs should have not taken the hardline stand they took.

The return to sovereignty in the UK will be the first salvo in the needed dissolution of the EU. Here's a recent article about the EU slowdown.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – European Union officials have slashed their growth forecast for the 19 countries that use the euro, saying even the lower estimate was vulnerable to “large uncertainty” from slowing growth in China and weakening global trade.

The EU’s executive Commission cut the forecast for this year to 1.3 percent from 1.9 percent in their earlier forecast issued in the autumn. The eurozone probably grew 1.9 percent last year, slowing from a 10-year high of 2.4 percent in 2017.

Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all saw sizeable downgrades for their growth outlook.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/201...onomic-growth/

[snappit]

Originally Posted by reckless

You are correct that there is a distinction between the EU and the Eurozone, which I should have made.

Take aside the nuanced definition of what a recession is, Europe is and has been in a downward economic cycle for a while now, do you agree?

The EU will actually need the UK more than ever. Brexit needs to happen. The UK could make trade deals with every country in the world using WTO treaty. Germany needs the UK more than the Brits need Germany, imo. And the EU has practically killed the farming industry in Ireland.

When the UK leaves, yes, the markets will be shaken but they should not crater because this delay has gone on too long and the Brussels brainiacs should have not taken the hardline stand they took.

The return to sovereignty in the UK will be the first salvo in the needed dissolution of the EU. Here's a recent article about the EU slowdown.



https://www.breitbart.com/europe/201...onomic-growth/

Yes, Europe isn't in the best of health but Brexit will make things worse for both EU countries and the UK. Every major economic forecaster predicts the UK will be much worse off. Brexit will be bad for the EU but even worse for the UK. 44% of our exports go to other EU countries while 8% of the other EU countries combined exports go to the UK. We need them more than they need us. Leaving the EU with any deal will be bad for the UK, leaving without a deal and so having to trade on WTO terms will be a disaster. Only one country in the world trades just on WTO terms and that is Mauritania. Eventually we will have to have trade deals of some kind with other countries but we won't have the negotiating clout of the huge market the EU offers. If we have to do a deal with say the US, who is going to get the better deal the huge 300m people market of the EU or the 65m people market of the UK?

Regarding Ireland I would say they have done rather well out of the EU. It is only recently they have paid in more to the EU than they have taken out. For the first 40 years of membership they received more in grants and subsidies than the money they contributed and most of these went to farming.

Why shouldn't the EU be stubborn? We decided to leave them. We can't leave the club but still expect the benefits without making the contributions or accepting the rules.

As for sovereignty we already have it. Yes, we have to abide by some rules and regulations but we, like other countries, have opt outs. Main examples are the Euro which we opted out of and the same for the schengen zone. Also, a lot of agreements demand all countries agree and any country can veto. One of the questions I always ask those over here who say we don't want to be ruled by Brussels is 'what law they have made would you like to lose'? they can never name one. On the contrary their rules have major benefits for workers such as guaranteed paid holidays, the fact you can't be forced to work more than a 48 hour week etc.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by Clocker

I guess in TrumpLand $12 billion is nothing.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/u...trade-war.html

You just confirmed what I said, they haven't been given out yet. Little to none of it.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by chadk66

You just confirmed what I said, they haven't been given out yet. Little to none of it.

That article was from November, saying they were starting to give it out. If that hasn't happened, that just adds to the proof that Trump's tariffs are hurting Americans.

[fast4522]

Another load of crapolla, China is on the ropes and ready to negotiate

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by fast4522

Another load of crapolla, China is on the ropes and ready to negotiate

Hard to argue with that kind of detailed, well-documented evidence.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Hard to argue with that kind of detailed, well-documented evidence.

It's also hard to argue with with someone who says hundreds of billions of dollars of annual trade deficits is 'good' for the economy. And that came from an economist no less. Also, anyone that says that Obama's 2 per cent economy is growth versus Trump's 4 per cent GDP is simply clueless.

Let's face it, double down on your hatred all you want, but the economy has grown and prospered, more jobs are available than available workers, and there is true change and growth -- all thanks to Trump and his policies. Despite your expert posts.

Snark against all Trump supporters you wish. No cares what you think. We just like reminding you and a few other Trump bashers how wrong you've been and how ignorant still are in face of proven and positive results.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by Clocker

That article was from November, saying they were starting to give it out. If that hasn't happened, that just adds to the proof that Trump's tariffs are hurting Americans.

I haven't heard of any of them actually receiving anything yet. And they may not due to China continuing to buy beans