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04-30-2018, 01:48 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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People hate Bolt and Justify.. so weird...
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04-30-2018, 01:51 PM
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#47
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Why not just have a thread where everyone makes their official derby bet.
I would guess most of us use online wagering so most will not have actual paper tickets to take pictures of and besides not everyone’s bankroll is the same so it’s not really a fair way to gauge the best handicapper.
Just make it simple . Everyone gets a fictional $100 to bet with any way they want on the derby and whoever has the highest R.O.I. on their bets is the winner.
No prize money that complicated things. Just for fun and bragging rights. We can start the thread after the post position draw.
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04-30-2018, 01:51 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I take it the closer we get to the Derby, the less you feel you have to lose...
Why do trolls like you show up for the Derby every year, then disappear for the next 11 months?
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Let's be thankful they do. I could not do this for 12 months a year. Nothing like the guy that knows everything. Questioning a trainers integrity, in particular someone like Mick Ruis makes this guy an auto-mute for me.
A guy like Mick may get just one shot in the Derby in his life and he does this. I respect the hell out of this guy. Came from nothing and is doing things he probably never even dreamed.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...silks-in-derby
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04-30-2018, 01:55 PM
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#49
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
People hate Bolt and Justify.. so weird...
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I actually feel sorry for both Justify and Bolt. Justify is being thrown in the deep waters when he clearly isn’t ready for it and it very well might ruin whatever career he could have had as a racehorse in the future and as far as Bolt goes ... I feel sorry for any horse that has Mick Ruis as a trainer.
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04-30-2018, 01:57 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Why not just have a thread where everyone makes their official derby bet.
I would guess most of us use online wagering so most will not have actual paper tickets to take pictures of and besides not everyone’s bankroll is the same so it’s not really a fair way to gauge the best handicapper.
Just make it simple . Everyone gets a fictional $100 to bet with any way they want on the derby and whoever has the highest R.O.I. on their bets is the winner.
No prize money that complicated things. Just for fun and bragging rights. We can start the thread after the post position draw.
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Adi stated in Papillions superfecta thread this was done last year and will be done again after the post draw tomorrow. If I remember coffectly the winner had last years exacta for $10 or something like that to take bragging rights.
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04-30-2018, 02:05 PM
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#51
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
Adi stated in Papillions superfecta thread this was done last year and will be done again after the post draw tomorrow. If I remember coffectly the winner had last years exacta for $10 or something like that to take bragging rights.
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Oh ok I missed that. Should be fun ...
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04-30-2018, 02:10 PM
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#52
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
No, highlighted by Justify's 109, still shows a large gap that Magnum Moon has to cover by improvement.
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I see no more improvement from him - we have seen his top and I doubt he will ever get a new one.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-30-2018, 02:28 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I see no more improvement from him - we have seen his top and I doubt he will ever get a new one.
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This is how I feel. His top might be good enough but there is certainly room for others to step up and match or exceed it. This happens with regularity on the three year old circuit.
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04-30-2018, 02:57 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I would challenge LoneF to find one single article to say that Justify is anywhere close to a lock or cinch to win this race.
They dont exist, setting up strawman arguments left and right.
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04-30-2018, 03:28 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FL
Posts: 1,164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Why not just have a thread where everyone makes their official derby bet.
I would guess most of us use online wagering so most will not have actual paper tickets to take pictures of and besides not everyone’s bankroll is the same so it’s not really a fair way to gauge the best handicapper.
Just make it simple . Everyone gets a fictional $100 to bet with any way they want on the derby and whoever has the highest R.O.I. on their bets is the winner.
No prize money that complicated things. Just for fun and bragging rights. We can start the thread after the post position draw.
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Genius! Why not start a section of the site for Selections as well?
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04-30-2018, 04:07 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I would challenge LoneF to find one single article to say that Justify is anywhere close to a lock or cinch to win this race.
They don't exist, setting up strawman arguments left and right.
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Go listen to the Steve Byk show 27 April, you here a couple of guys that say such a thing. Frank Hammerle is one of them. He said he is so confident that Justify will win that he is embarrassed by feeling so. Lots of people love Justify and Bolt and personally, I don't understand the hype. People love Bris and Beyers, but these numbers are very flawed bias.
An example I'll Have Another run fast times, but for whatever reason Bris and Beyer didn't have him fast. I bet if he was a Baffert horse, he would have magically have gotten faster.
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04-30-2018, 04:30 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
And if the sun comes crashing into the earth before Saturday than they won’t even run the race. Both scenarios have equal probability !
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No, they don't.
You don't have to like Justify- that's horse racing. But if you think he has no chance to win the race at all you are way off.
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04-30-2018, 04:50 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Zenyatta getting that horrible start and still winning the BC Cup classic
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Uh, when did Zenyatta ever get a "horrible start" and win the BC Classic?
I'm guessing Mendelssohn is in for a scripted "horrible start" this Saturday (by your assessment alone).
God, just cross-off Mendelssohn and his 1-for-54 trainer already.
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04-30-2018, 06:07 PM
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#59
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I would challenge LoneF to find one single article to say that Justify is anywhere close to a lock or cinch to win this race.
They dont exist, setting up strawman arguments left and right.
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When you say find one article , do you mean one article in the media or one post on this website ?
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04-30-2018, 06:25 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rabrown36
People love Bris and Beyers, but these numbers are very flawed bias.
An example I'll Have Another run fast times, but for whatever reason Bris and Beyer didn't have him fast. I bet if he was a Baffert horse, he would have magically have gotten faster.
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very true. flawed, subjective and incomplete are all of them are. people are catching on to the bs. much like they are in the officiating of NFL games. wasn't it beyer that went back and changed the number based on outcry last year?...lol
i can say i have a speed rating myself, just throw out some number based on visual or makeup some formula that doesn't exist.
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