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Old 04-27-2021, 01:50 PM   #1
sbcaris
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Known Agenda and the dreaded 1 post

known Agenda gets the worst post and is all but eliminated from the win chance.

I would scratch him and run in the preakness.
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Old 04-27-2021, 02:13 PM   #2
depalma113
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The new gate eliminates the disadvantage with the one hole.

It is 15 feet shorter and moved out, so the horse no longer run directly into the rail at the start.
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Old 04-27-2021, 02:14 PM   #3
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It's not the same old gate plus he's got some slugs to his right. If that slug Lookin at Lee can hit the place pool from the rail then this guy sure as hell can. I'd bet KA in the hole before HM needing to outrun speed to his inside from the hole. Kind of forces him to be somewhat forwardly placed which is where you needed to be the past seven years.
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Old 04-27-2021, 03:43 PM   #4
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Below is a summary of the horses that broke from the rail since 2000 with year, name, odds, chart comment summary, and finish position with the total number of entrants so you can make your own interpretation. Note that the new starting gate may have an effect on this data, but only time will bore that out. Also remember that if there are 18 or 19 horses PP 1 is the second gate as the first gate is left open if there are less than 20. They then alternate between the outside and inside gates being open.

2000 Anees 17/1. Swerved at start, broke awkwardly, failed to menace. 13/19
2001 Songandaprayer. 35/1. hustled to the front along the rail soon after the start, made the pace under pressure to the second turn, then tired from the effort. 13/17
2002 Johannesburg. 8/1. JOHANNESBURG, well placed along the inside from the start, raced in hand to the second turn while within striking distance saving ground, continued inside into the stretch but came up empty when asked. 8/18
2003 Supah Blitz. 43/1. SUPAH BLITZ came out brushing BRANCUSI after the start, saved ground, was checked lightly soon after passing the wire the first time and failed to menace. 13/16
2004 Limehouse. 41/1. LIMEHOUSE was shuffled back a bit along the inside on the first turn, raced in the middle of the pack for six furlongs, saved ground while launching his bid approaching the quarter pole, made a run to reach contention in midstretch but couldn't sustain his bid. 4/18
2005 Sort It Out. 67/1. SORT IT OUT never reached contention so it is hard to gauge any effect from starting on the rail. 17/20
2006 Jazil. 24/1. JAZIL swerved in at the start, was unhurried while outrun for six furlongs, continued to save ground while rallying along the rail on the far turn, angled out between foes four wide when entering the upper stretch to make a serious bid but failed to sustain his effort while dead heating with BROTHER DEREK for fourth. 4/20
2007 Sedgefield. 58/1. SEDGEFIELD, forwardly placed near the inside from the outset, raced within easy striking distance into the upper stretch and came up empty. 5/20
2008 Cool Coal Man. 34/1. COOL COAL MAN taken in hand after an alert beginning to race within striking distance along the inside, held on well for seven furlongs and faded. 15/20
2009 West Side Bernie. 32/1. WEST SIDE BERNIE outrun early along the inside, failed to respond when asked to pick up the pace, angled out five wide once in the stretch and could not threaten. 9/19
2010 Lookin at Lucky 6/1. Poster child for rail draw roughed at start and then again soon after, menaced on the turn and flattened out. (note 3/1 in morning line, drifted up to 6/1 because of the post). 6/20
2011 Archarcharch 12/1. Steadied at start, saddle slipped, pulled up. He was vanned off because he appeared to be lame. 15/19
2012 Daddy Long Legs 26/1. Eased, no trouble noted at start. DNF/20
2013 Oxbow 24/1. Bumped at start, made nice move on the rail to get near the lead and flattened out last furlong. 6/19
2014 Vicars in Trouble 20/1. Checked and bounced inside of foes. Got into contention then was eased and ended up 19th. Note starting gate 1 was left open due to scratches. 19/19
2015 Ocho Ocho Ocho 26/1. Taken firmly in hand to rate off Carpe Diem, made mild run on inside and tired late. 14/18
2016 Trojan Nation 42/1. Checked after start, lagged on inside, failed to threaten. 16/20
2017 Lookin at Lee 33/1. Interestingly had the best rail trip in the modern era Ė maybe it was good karma from his father. The abbreviated line notes says ďdream inside trip to 1/8Ē so the rail is not an automatic toss. He settled well back while saving ground, picked up pace on far turn, skimmed the rail and rallied to get the place. 2/20
2018 Firenze Fire 59/1. Edged up between runners early, tracked on the rail into the far turn, angled out into the lane and gave in. 11/20
2019 War of Will 16/1. Found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened. 8/19
2020 Max Player 19/1. MAX PLAYER reserved off of the inside, moved out between rivals four to five wide on the far turn, churned on in traffic and improved position. 5/15
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Old 04-27-2021, 04:46 PM   #5
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I would count the 2020 Derby as the only sample since they started with the new 20-horse gate at Churchill.
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Old 04-27-2021, 05:59 PM   #6
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KA and EQ were my picks to win the Derby prior to the draw. In previous years, I would change KA to an underneath play due to the draw, but I'm wondering if this new gate will really give the #1 hole an equally fair start. if that's really true, I see no reason not to keep KA on my top line. What's everyone's thoughts?

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Old 04-27-2021, 06:22 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dballard125 View Post
KA and EQ were my picks to win the Derby prior to the draw. In previous years, I would change KA to an underneath play due to the draw, but I'm wondering if this new gate will really give the #1 hole an equally fair start. if that's really true, I see no reason not to keep KA on my top line. What's everyone's thoughts?
I cannot find a head-on of last year's Derby when they used the new gate. The 1 was scratched and that post was left open.

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Old 04-27-2021, 06:54 PM   #8
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I'd take the rail over the 19 or 20. It's 60 less feet (7 to 8 lengths) to travel and no horse inside to cause problems. Also, be thankful he's not next to Hot Rod Charlie who likes to do play the Three Stooges out of the gate. My main fear with KA is not the start but the 3/4 pole. I remember Exaggerator being pinned until it was too late to make a credible move for the win. KA should save plenty of ground around that first turn then needs to find a path while hoping the speed comes back a bit. In Irad I trust.

If nothing else, you'll likely get a better value at the window now. Can either take the odds or bet less for the same profit and reallocate that bankroll.
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Old 04-27-2021, 07:02 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
I'd take the rail over the 19 or 20. It's 60 less feet (7 to 8 lengths) to travel and no horse inside to cause problems. Also, be thankful he's not next to Hot Rod Charlie who likes to do play the Three Stooges out of the gate. My main fear with KA is not the start but the 3/4 pole. I remember Exaggerator being pinned until it was too late to make a credible move for the win. KA should save plenty of ground around that first turn then needs to find a path while hoping the speed comes back a bit. In Irad I trust.

If nothing else, you'll likely get a better value at the window now. Can either take the odds or bet less for the same profit and reallocate that bankroll.
In the Sam F Davis, he did have "the move" when he was running without blinkers.
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Old 04-27-2021, 07:46 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
I'd take the rail over the 19 or 20. It's 60 less feet (7 to 8 lengths) to travel and no horse inside to cause problems. Also, be thankful he's not next to Hot Rod Charlie who likes to do play the Three Stooges out of the gate. My main fear with KA is not the start but the 3/4 pole. I remember Exaggerator being pinned until it was too late to make a credible move for the win. KA should save plenty of ground around that first turn then needs to find a path while hoping the speed comes back a bit. In Irad I trust.

If nothing else, you'll likely get a better value at the window now. Can either take the odds or bet less for the same profit and reallocate that bankroll.
Appreciate the advice. Thx for the others weighing in as well. I think Iím going to leave him on top of my tickets with EQ. Gonna see if I can find an overhead view of last years start from the gate also.
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Old 04-27-2021, 07:51 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
The new gate eliminates the disadvantage with the one hole.

It is 15 feet shorter and moved out, so the horse no longer run directly into the rail at the start.
Correct.
The one hole is actually a fair draw now.
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Old 04-27-2021, 08:14 PM   #12
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Two things. The list that was posted reads like there were only 3 or 4 even had a shot to begin with and Iím probably being generous on that acct. The new gate should alleviate prior problems.

I like Known Agenda but Iím more worried about the pace and if heís close enough. The track looks to be fast with the weather report. If thereís the usual pace thatís been setting up in these recent derbies heís in trub for the top spot. That worries me way more than that post. Itís the difference between hitting the board and winning. IMO. He most likely will move forward but will it be enough?
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Old 04-27-2021, 08:21 PM   #13
dballard125
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF View Post
I cannot find a head-on of last year's Derby when they used the new gate. The 1 was scratched and that post was left open.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2j2AhlEUr8
Man with all of the horses coming down at the start, it still looks to me like the #1 hole is still not the greatest position from that angle.
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Old 04-27-2021, 08:30 PM   #14
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Two things. The list that was posted reads like there were only 3 or 4 even had a shot to begin with and I’m probably being generous on that acct. The new gate should alleviate prior problems.

I like Known Agenda but I’m more worried about the pace and if he’s close enough. The track looks to be fast with the weather report. If there’s the usual pace that’s been setting up in these recent derbies he’s in trub for the top spot. That worries me way more than that post. It’s the difference between hitting the board and winning. IMO. He most likely will move forward but will it be enough?
Playing devils advocate, can the speed (HRC, RYW, HM, etc) get 10 panels though? I dont think RYW should have a problem, but I certainly question the others that will likely be vying for the lead. If KA can settle in 3-4 lengths off of the lead and follow them around, I think he has a shot. The horse that I didn't plan on playing on top of my tickets, that's beginning to scare me, is RYW. If he gets loose on the lead, he may be tough for any in this group to run down.
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Old 04-27-2021, 08:30 PM   #15
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I'd take the rail over the 19 or 20. It's 60 less feet (7 to 8 lengths) to travel and no horse inside to cause problems. Also, be thankful he's not next to Hot Rod Charlie who likes to do play the Three Stooges out of the gate. My main fear with KA is not the start but the 3/4 pole. I remember Exaggerator being pinned until it was too late to make a credible move for the win. KA should save plenty of ground around that first turn then needs to find a path while hoping the speed comes back a bit. In Irad I trust.

If nothing else, you'll likely get a better value at the window now. Can either take the odds or bet less for the same profit and reallocate that bankroll.
Pythagorean theorem.
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