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Old 03-28-2021, 09:36 AM   #1
sbcaris
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final 3/8 of a mile

Known Agenda ran the last 3 furlongs of the Florida Derby in approximately 37 seconds.

Horses that run the last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep race in 37 4/5 or less win the KY Derby twice as often as statistical expectation..

These horses as a group have an impact value of approximately 2.00. They comprise 33 percent of the starters but a strong 67 percent of the winners
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Old 03-28-2021, 10:21 AM   #2
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Just curious as to the final fraction for Greatest Honour. Didn't use him yesterday but have him at 50-1 in the futures and under the field in pool 2 exactas. Only a 94 beyer for Known Agenda which means Greatest should be even lower. Decreasing beyers not a good sign for Derby horses.
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:16 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by sbcaris View Post
Known Agenda ran the last 3 furlongs of the Florida Derby in approximately 37 seconds.

Horses that run the last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep race in 37 4/5 or less win the KY Derby twice as often as statistical expectation..

These horses as a group have an impact value of approximately 2.00. They comprise 33 percent of the starters but a strong 67 percent of the winners
Nice stat.
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:21 PM   #4
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The final 3/8th of the race from the 3/4 call to wire was 37.16, call it 37 1/5 for old school. Known Agenda was about 2 1/2 behind the leader at the 3/4 call so he might have completed that 3/8 about half second faster than the clock. Greatest Honour was 5 back at the 3/4 call and crossed the line 5 3/4 back. His final 3/8th would approximate the split, probably no more than a 1/5 second above it. The horse finally had what looked like a bad trip. I wouldn't totally rule him out of the trifecta in May assuming he runs. I did not include him in my Pool 5 exacta.

Regarding the BSF, I don't put too much salt in a standalone number. Nyquist got a 92 in the FL Derby however his 117 TimeformUS likely measured it better. Known Agenda got a 112 Equibase figure which is a strong one. Looks like a 113 TimformUS figure that is about par for prep winners this season. Or take a look at Medina Spirit who grabbed a solid 120 TimeformUS and decent 95 BSF in the San Felipe but only a so-so 93 Brinset and 98 Equibase.

Last edited by f2tornado; 03-28-2021 at 12:24 PM.
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Old 03-29-2021, 01:31 PM   #5
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result chart fla derby

Can someone post the result chart of florida derby?
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Old 03-29-2021, 05:53 PM   #6
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Can someone post the result chart of florida derby?
https://www.equibase.com/static/char...32721USA14.pdf
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Old 03-30-2021, 08:46 AM   #7
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result chart fla derby

THANKS.
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Old 04-04-2021, 08:47 AM   #8
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final 3/8

So far 3 horses have run well enough in the big 5 preps to merit consideration:

Known Agenda in the Florida Derby with the final 3 furlongs in 37.

Essential quality in the Blue Grass -final 3 furlongs in 36 3/5

Highly Motivated in the Bliue Grass final 3 furlongs in 36 3/5
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Old 04-04-2021, 03:12 PM   #9
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two with buckpasser in the tail, on of those with RAN Sire line, Known Agenda and none with a CONDUIT
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Old 04-04-2021, 06:29 PM   #10
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buck passer in the X

Known Agenda has Buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Highly motivated also has buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Essential Quality does not carry Buckpasser in the X but does have the strong conduit mare, Doxa, in tail female.

These above three look strongest in my opinion so far.
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Old 04-04-2021, 06:37 PM   #11
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We shall see how Concert Tour runs in the Ark but if he runs the way Baffert talks him up then we’d get another RAN Buckpasser-x option. He sure made the Rebel look easy geared down crossing the wire. I boxed him with Essential Quality and the field (Known Agenda plus perhaps a dozen others) in the final pool. 30+ to 1 for the cheapest combination while getting a dozen horses seemed like an absolute steal.
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Old 04-05-2021, 12:30 AM   #12
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Here are the final fractions for this year's Derby contenders.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1617593153

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Old 04-05-2021, 01:39 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbcaris View Post
Known Agenda has Buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Highly motivated also has buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Essential Quality does not carry Buckpasser in the X but does have the strong conduit mare, Doxa, in tail female.

These above three look strongest in my opinion so far.



opps, doxa is 1-x not 1-s, I didn't look past family
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Old 04-05-2021, 08:48 AM   #14
sbcaris
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final 3/8

In order for a horse to qualify on my final 3/8 angle it must NOT have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of the big 5 prep race.

Soup and Sandwich does not qualify because he lost more than 2 lengths from the six furlong point to the finish line of the Florida Derby. I have found it to be extremely rare for a Derby winner to lose ground from the six furlong call to the finish line of a big 5 prep..
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Old 04-05-2021, 06:05 PM   #15
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He is a god longshot.
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