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Old 04-27-2020, 10:22 AM   #1
NTamm1215
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Del Mar meet is set to open July 18, 2020

Saratoga gets too much attention around here. Let's talk Del Mar.

The fair has already been cancelled. The governor of CA has gone on record saying he doesn't think there will be live attendance at football games in September in his state. Del Mar is HEAVILY reliant on on-track business both in terms of handle as well as non-wagering revenue. Is it even feasible for them to run without fans?
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Old 04-27-2020, 10:36 AM   #2
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They really should run Del Mar without fans if its possible. If summer racing was relocated to Santa Anita, there would be so many oppressive days with temps hovering around 100.

While Del Mar is indeed heavily reliant on the $20 margaritas to come out ahead, perhaps with less competition, bigger handle can help make up for it. At least a casino isn't needed to be open in order for Del Mar to operate.

I also think there is a lot more community support for racing at Del Mar than there is at Santa Anita, and that will surely factor into a decision to race.
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Old 04-27-2020, 10:37 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Saratoga gets too much attention around here. Let's talk Del Mar.

The fair has already been cancelled. The governor of CA has gone on record saying he doesn't think there will be live attendance at football games in September in his state. Del Mar is HEAVILY reliant on on-track business both in terms of handle as well as non-wagering revenue. Is it even feasible for them to run without fans?
in todays world without sports gambling and people staying in their homes, tracks like Del Mar or even Saratoga at Belmont will out do prior handles without a live crowd. non handle revenues will be missing from this equation though.
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Old 04-27-2020, 11:35 AM   #4
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The issues are: (1) San Diego County has to approve it (that's what's holding up SA and GG right now), and (2) the Governor has to allow what would be a massive movement of people from LA to San Diego County.

I could see both these questions going either way. Obviously Del Mar is lobbying hard to open.
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:07 PM   #5
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How much does DEL MAR receive from ADW wagering. The extra handle helps minimal. The adw's get the bulk of the revenues. Do I have the facts correctly stated?
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:25 PM   #6
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The issues are: (1) San Diego County has to approve it (that's what's holding up SA and GG right now), and (2) the Governor has to allow what would be a massive movement of people from LA to San Diego County.

I could see both these questions going either way. Obviously Del Mar is lobbying hard to open.
What number do you consider a "massive movement of people"?
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:32 PM   #7
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How much does DEL MAR receive from ADW wagering. The extra handle helps minimal. The adw's get the bulk of the revenues. Do I have the facts correctly stated?
Del Mar is lobbying to open, so they must feel they can make the economics work, at least over the long term.
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:33 PM   #8
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What number do you consider a "massive movement of people"?
Everyone associated with horse racing who will have to relocate from LA County to San Diego County. That's probably over 500 people who live on track, plus hundreds of horsemen and racing officials.
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:39 PM   #9
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As of right now most schools and colleges plan on reopening in August and September. How anyone can believe that there will be zero spectator participation in anything by August is strange. Thirty days from now opinions will dramatically change.
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:43 PM   #10
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Everyone associated with horse racing who will have to relocate from LA County to San Diego County. That's probably over 500 people who live on track, plus hundreds of horsemen and racing officials.
So you don't know? Even if it were 1,000 people it should hardly be a concern or a problem.

Decisions made about Del Mar will be based on which way the political winds are blowing. Fear is so prevalent that rational decisions made based on safety might be political suicide for the decision makers.
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Old 04-27-2020, 12:57 PM   #11
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As of right now most schools and colleges plan on reopening in August and September. How anyone can believe that there will be zero spectator participation in anything by August is strange. Thirty days from now opinions will dramatically change.
I have some insider knowledge of this particular decision. While announcements have not yet been made, decisions have. Schools are highly likely to remain closed in the fall, especially in the cities in California.
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:25 AM   #12
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Saratoga thread closed, so....

NYRA plans to move forward with Spa meet....

https://wnyt.com/saratoga-county-ny-...rce=zetaglobal
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:37 AM   #13
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in todays world without sports gambling and people staying in their homes, tracks like Del Mar or even Saratoga at Belmont will out do prior handles without a live crowd. non handle revenues will be missing from this equation though.
You are obviously a very sharp guy and from your other comments I know you follow what's going on in the economy too. I understand the upside of not having to compete with other tracks and other sports gambling. But millions of people are now unemployed, have reduced hours, or are feeling vulnerable at their jobs. That is almost certainly going to be a drag on handle. I'm not sure anyone knows what the net of all this will be, but during the 2008 recession the handle dropped sharply.

Setting aside the nightmare that got us into this mess, we are probably going to learn a few things about how reducing tracks would impact handle per track and how other sports gambling impacts racing.
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:52 AM   #14
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Saratoga thread closed, so....

NYRA plans to move forward with Spa meet....

https://wnyt.com/saratoga-county-ny-...rce=zetaglobal
The good news is that July is still a long way off. The environment in terms of new virus cases could look a LOT different (better) by then if some of the projections are correct.

Still, unless it gets to the point where things are good enough for fans and tourism so the local economy can salvage something from the year, I'm not sure I see the net upside other than the hope that fanless Saratoga would handle a lot more than fanless "Saratoga at Belmont", which I find somewhat suspect.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:13 AM   #15
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Saratoga thread closed, so....

NYRA plans to move forward with Spa meet....

https://wnyt.com/saratoga-county-ny-...rce=zetaglobal
I feel really bad when I read these stories in upstate NY media. The authors are clearly big homers, hoping beyond hope that this thing they live for every year in their remote region will still happen, and looking for every tea leaf they can attach to.

NYRA has to have contingency plans for anything, but the reality is as of now NYRA can't even stage a maiden claiming race without fans at Belmont. They are WAY away from any actual decision to run big races at Saratoga, no matter what the local boosters in upstate NY media say.
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