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Old 10-07-2021, 07:08 PM   #1
classhandicapper
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Champagne Figure Raised to 102

The Beyer figure for the Champagne has been raised from 93 to 102.

Excellent work by all involved catching the timing error and then correcting the figures for such an important race.

https://www.drf.com/news/beyer-figur...her-raised-102
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Old 10-07-2021, 09:28 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
The Beyer figure for the Champagne has been raised from 93 to 102.

Excellent work by all involved catching the timing error and then correcting the figures for such an important race.

https://www.drf.com/news/beyer-figur...her-raised-102
This horse is one of the more likely winners on the card.
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Old 10-08-2021, 01:08 AM   #3
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This horse is one of the more likely winners on the card.
I thought it was a huge effort before the adjusted figure. Going into the race I commented elsewhere about the potential quality of that field.

Gunite was coming off a race I thought that was better than it looked. He got banged around at the start and was rushed into some fast fractions. He also looked like another Asmussen horse that was going to keep improving steadily.

Wit was winning impressively despite rough starts and lost all chance last out when he stumbled at the start and was pushed into the race early.

Both My Prankster and Jack Christopher were extremely impressive maiden winners from top barns.

You never really know who is going to step forward in these 2yo races. That’s really one of the keys to beating them. Had they finished bunched up I would have said it was the typical Champagne these days. But the winner put away and totally buried Gunite. Wit was badly beaten (albeit with a lack of racing room for awhile). My Prankster got killed. The race was kind of screaming that the winner ran huge. The runner up is no slouch either.
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Old 10-08-2021, 09:23 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
The Beyer figure for the Champagne has been raised from 93 to 102.

Excellent work by all involved catching the timing error and then correcting the figures for such an important race.

https://www.drf.com/news/beyer-figur...her-raised-102
Why can't Equibase post the new fractions and final time? And when are the Beyer guys going to re time the Frizette. I believe that race is way off fractional and finish...
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Old 10-08-2021, 09:42 PM   #5
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Why can't Equibase post the new fractions and final time? And when are the Beyer guys going to re time the Frizette. I believe that race is way off fractional and finish...
Frizette looks good too me. I checked.
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Old 10-08-2021, 09:58 PM   #6
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Frizette looks good too me. I checked.
Ok thanks.....
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Old 10-08-2021, 11:25 PM   #7
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Ok thanks.....
Here is an example of what you have to go through to check the times for some races. You can't really see the timing equipment at some distances due to distortion due to severe angles. It is tough to see. For the Frizette, you have to piece some frames together to get them both. That is the bottom image.



There was some question as to which timing eye on the outer rail was the right one for mile dirt races. Why there are two so close I have no idea. You can usually determine the angle of the distortion and establish the beam "start timing" line by looking at the angle on the starting gate (upper right image).

In the Frizette, the group of horses in the upper left image is where timing for the race started, i.e. after run up. You get this by noting the time when the winner hits the finish line, then subtract the official time. That gives you the start.

This showed me it was clearly the left most timing eye that is correct. I used the same angle as the starting gate to see if the horses were on the line for the first timing eye, the one on the right, but they are well past. The second eye looks right to me.

When I piece the different frames together (the bottom) it is even more obvious. When the angle isn't as severe as it is for the mile dirt races at Belmont, it is usually spot on, but this was a bit tougher so it could be a few hundredths off.

Last edited by cj; 10-08-2021 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 10-09-2021, 11:14 AM   #8
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Thumbs up Horseplayers appreciate quality and due diligence from info sources!

Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Here is an example of what you have to go through to check the times for some races. You can't really see the timing equipment at some distances due to distortion due to severe angles. It is tough to see. For the Frizette, you have to piece some frames together to get them both. That is the bottom image.



There was some question as to which timing eye on the outer rail was the right one for mile dirt races. Why there are two so close I have no idea. You can usually determine the angle of the distortion and establish the beam "start timing" line by looking at the angle on the starting gate (upper right image).

In the Frizette, the group of horses in the upper left image is where timing for the race started, i.e. after run up. You get this by noting the time when the winner hits the finish line, then subtract the official time. That gives you the start.

This showed me it was clearly the left most timing eye that is correct. I used the same angle as the starting gate to see if the horses were on the line for the first timing eye, the one on the right, but they are well past. The second eye looks right to me.

When I piece the different frames together (the bottom) it is even more obvious. When the angle isn't as severe as it is for the mile dirt races at Belmont, it is usually spot on, but this was a bit tougher so it could be a few hundredths off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DRF
Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS has been an industry watchdog on timing, and he was the first to suspect that something was wrong in the Champagne.
Appreciate the hard work!

I think I've got a 3 or so month streak going of consecutive 'monthly' subscriptions to TimeformUS.
It's served me well, as a relatively high quality source, and a lot of the info that I would need to search for individually (time,effort + bunch of clicks) is all in one place.

Nice to see you mentioned, and credited again, by the big dogs. I saw the https://www.drf.com/ article, as well as hearing you mentioned within the whole discussion on Talking Horses.
I've got to figure out the Steve Byk links so that I can binge 'ATR', I hear Beyer is interviewed in a current show.
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Old 10-09-2021, 11:25 AM   #9
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Too bad the Mighty NYRA with all it's resources can't do for it's customers what CJ does. Pretty pathetic lack of integrity by NYRA. Totally unacceptable and minor league.
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Old 10-09-2021, 11:30 AM   #10
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Nice to see you mentioned, and credited again, by the big dogs. I saw the https://www.drf.com/ article, as well as hearing you mentioned within the whole discussion on Talking Horses.
I've got to figure out the Steve Byk links so that I can binge 'ATR', I hear Beyer is interviewed in a current show.
https://stevebyk.com/broadcast/part-...2-jay-privman/
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Old 10-09-2021, 11:39 AM   #11
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Thumbs up thank you

you are the man Tom

listening to this now, while I blast through this manic super Saturday

(wow Steve Byk does a nice 'Shout Out' to CJ Craig Milkowski, as well)

Thank you Tom. treasure Beyer (no offense Marty McGee, but I may ff first listen )


I like the NYRA card today,

Keeneland is **cking Amazing today something like 8-11 are all full fields of well meant horses, maybe 6-10 or something is a p5 and many menu options

other tracks as well. Woodbine?, I got at least three completely full drf watch-lists


in a good mood, and i got my TFUS and ADW, PA and Twitter, and Dave Schwartz has been talking about a launch of yet another horseplayer paradise, so staying tuned in
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Old 10-09-2021, 12:17 PM   #12
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I haven't studied this case nearly as closely as I would need to in order to pinpoint any specific timing error but as I've said many times before the 'wind' can have a very significant impact on times. In particular windy days out of the chute at 1M is going to be one of the absolute worst-case scenarios for anyone using a speed chart. A stiff head or tailwind will significantly alter the fractional-final time relationships as well as the distance to distance relationships by several fifths easily. You would need a completely different speed chart for a windy day at Belmont vs no wind. I doubt one figure-maker in 1000 does, maybe Ragozin's team. Even then it's not going to be a constant, the impact is variable throughout the course of a race in both speed and direction. I watched the third race for example, very strong gusts can be heard while they were waiting for a start and the flag was whipping around pretty good. I thought I heard Beyer say on the Byk show that the first quarter seemed slow at 23-2/5 for the Champagne. I dunno about that one. Anyway with that being said there are many timing errors over the course of a year of racing. Some are typos, others are malfunctions and then we have the ones that appear to be errors but are skewed due to more extreme conditions where the clock is not always entirely aligned with the quality of the effort.
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Old 10-09-2021, 12:38 PM   #13
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I haven't studied this case nearly as closely as I would need to in order to pinpoint any specific timing error but as I've said many times before the 'wind' can have a very significant impact on times. In particular windy days out of the chute at 1M is going to be one of the absolute worst-case scenarios for anyone using a speed chart. A stiff head or tailwind will significantly alter the fractional-final time relationships as well as the distance to distance relationships by several fifths easily. You would need a completely different speed chart for a windy day at Belmont vs no wind. I doubt one figure-maker in 1000 does, maybe Ragozin's team. Even then it's not going to be a constant, the impact is variable throughout the course of a race in both speed and direction. I watched the third race for example, very strong gusts can be heard while they were waiting for a start and the flag was whipping around pretty good. I thought I heard Beyer say on the Byk show that the first quarter seemed slow at 23-2/5 for the Champagne. I dunno about that one. Anyway with that being said there are many timing errors over the course of a year of racing. Some are typos, others are malfunctions and then we have the ones that appear to be errors but are skewed due to more extreme conditions where the clock is not always entirely aligned with the quality of the effort.
All we ask for as figure makers is accurate times, we can handle the rest from there. I know I account for wind as much as possible, and I'm sure Beyer does too.

The other thing that would be nice is if the listed run ups were actually correct. The more races I check, the more I think they are just made up. NYRA mistimed a race on Thursday at 6f on the inner turf with the rail at 27 feet. They listed the run up as 80 feet. When I checked other similar races from this year alone, they have runs ups as 80, 84, 104, 110, and 120 for various races and the gate is in the same place give or take a few feet. There isn't a lot of wiggle room for the turf gaps. It is like they just intentionally screw with you.

Give us an accurate time and the real race distance and we can take it from there.
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Old 10-09-2021, 12:42 PM   #14
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Here is an example of what you have to go through to check the times for some races. You can't really see the timing equipment at some distances due to distortion due to severe angles. It is tough to see. For the Frizette, you have to piece some frames together to get them both. That is the bottom image.



There was some question as to which timing eye on the outer rail was the right one for mile dirt races. Why there are two so close I have no idea. You can usually determine the angle of the distortion and establish the beam "start timing" line by looking at the angle on the starting gate (upper right image).

In the Frizette, the group of horses in the upper left image is where timing for the race started, i.e. after run up. You get this by noting the time when the winner hits the finish line, then subtract the official time. That gives you the start.

This showed me it was clearly the left most timing eye that is correct. I used the same angle as the starting gate to see if the horses were on the line for the first timing eye, the one on the right, but they are well past. The second eye looks right to me.

When I piece the different frames together (the bottom) it is even more obvious. When the angle isn't as severe as it is for the mile dirt races at Belmont, it is usually spot on, but this was a bit tougher so it could be a few hundredths off.
Thanks for breaking it down CJ
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Old 10-09-2021, 02:32 PM   #15
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All we ask for as figure makers is accurate times, we can handle the rest from there. I know I account for wind as much as possible, and I'm sure Beyer does too.

The other thing that would be nice is if the listed run ups were actually correct. The more races I check, the more I think they are just made up. NYRA mistimed a race on Thursday at 6f on the inner turf with the rail at 27 feet. They listed the run up as 80 feet. When I checked other similar races from this year alone, they have runs ups as 80, 84, 104, 110, and 120 for various races and the gate is in the same place give or take a few feet. There isn't a lot of wiggle room for the turf gaps. It is like they just intentionally screw with you.

Give us an accurate time and the real race distance and we can take it from there.
There was minimal wind that day at Belmont, for what it's worth, and it was only 8 MPH NE at the time of the Champage and fairly consistent throughout the day. It likely had next to no effect on anything. That is at the low end of what wind is out here most days, especially this time of the year.
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