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Old 08-29-2021, 11:33 PM   #16
Mulerider
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Jose only had 7 mandatory races to worry about at the Final Table...

Yet he missed his bet for Saratoga's 10th Race, believe it or not.
I saw it had "No Bet" listed for that race. I wonder what happened?
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Old 08-30-2021, 01:24 AM   #17
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he just said on TVG that he actually didn't like the horse
but needed at least a 12-1 horse and seemed most logical

That seems.. not great. So if you're the leader in the tournament you're basically fading every longshot that one of the trailers will probably latch onto?


I know nothing about handicapping tournaments but I would try something where the live results are obscured for the last few races, or blocks of races, however that works.

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Old 08-30-2021, 08:38 AM   #18
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That seems.. not great. So if you're the leader in the tournament you're basically fading every longshot that one of the trailers will probably latch onto?


I know nothing about handicapping tournaments but I would try something where the live results are obscured for the last few races, or blocks of races, however that works.
That is something the leaders have to deal with as part of their strategy. It looks like the top two or three were trying to eek out a win with shorter priced horses. They guy in second had to try to pick a horse that the leader didn't have if he was gonna win. It seems like it was a lucky stab but every player at the final table was trying to do the same thing.
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Old 08-30-2021, 11:12 AM   #19
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Old 08-30-2021, 02:35 PM   #20
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That seems.. not great. So if you're the leader in the tournament you're basically fading every longshot that one of the trailers will probably latch onto?


I know nothing about handicapping tournaments but I would try something where the live results are obscured for the last few races, or blocks of races, however that works.
100% agreed. The big tourney shows the live money results which changes the way someone would normally handicap and especially bet on a race. Obviously those still alive towards the end take shots they would normally not take and win the tourney on one obscure pic. How about they need to enter all of their pics at the beginning of the contest? In any event congrats to the dude for winning the contest!
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Old 08-30-2021, 04:07 PM   #21
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How about they need to enter all of their pics at the beginning of the contest?

then after 80% of the contest they'd be at the same point as live betting, but less contestants would be 'alive'
(much of the field would already be eliminated while their pre-selected picks are now worthless)


It's a contest. All players know and are aware of the rules and placings... some strategy and luck is involved.
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Old 08-31-2021, 03:40 AM   #22
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That is something the leaders have to deal with as part of their strategy. It looks like the top two or three were trying to eek out a win with shorter priced horses. They guy in second had to try to pick a horse that the leader didn't have if he was gonna win. It seems like it was a lucky stab but every player at the final table was trying to do the same thing.

Sure, these guys know it's part of the strategy, they take it into account, but, does it have to be that way? Wouldn't it be better if it was just about handicapping?



It seems like the leader gets put in a very disadvantageous situation. Of course sometimes the chalk wins and the leader holds on, I get that. But crucially, everyone behind the leader at the end has far more information than the leader had at any juncture. They know what they need to overtake him and bet accordingly. The tournament situation dictates their bets, they're not purely handicapping any more.



Is it not the case that if a longshot wins at the end of one of these, it's likely that the incumbent leader was surpassed? Because everyone in striking distance was correctly playing the bombers? I feel like the result of that race is actually too influential in the final outcome, because again, the bettors have so much information.



I stand by the idea that, not for the whole thing, but, for the final 'stretch run' of these tournaments, the results should not be publicized until the races are over, unless someone can tell me why that's a bad idea. And I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, I'm curious to learn more. I would like to take part in an event like this someday.

Last edited by The Arbiter; 08-31-2021 at 03:42 AM.
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Old 08-31-2021, 09:50 AM   #23
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Sure, these guys know it's part of the strategy, they take it into account, but, does it have to be that way? Wouldn't it be better if it was just about handicapping?



It seems like the leader gets put in a very disadvantageous situation. Of course sometimes the chalk wins and the leader holds on, I get that. But crucially, everyone behind the leader at the end has far more information than the leader had at any juncture. They know what they need to overtake him and bet accordingly. The tournament situation dictates their bets, they're not purely handicapping any more.



Is it not the case that if a longshot wins at the end of one of these, it's likely that the incumbent leader was surpassed? Because everyone in striking distance was correctly playing the bombers? I feel like the result of that race is actually too influential in the final outcome, because again, the bettors have so much information.



I stand by the idea that, not for the whole thing, but, for the final 'stretch run' of these tournaments, the results should not be publicized until the races are over, unless someone can tell me why that's a bad idea. And I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, I'm curious to learn more. I would like to take part in an event like this someday.
It depends on what you consider "stabbing". Are you advocating lowering the limit to 5 or 10-1 on the final day?
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Old 08-31-2021, 11:00 AM   #24
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Although I haven't had much online presence or activity in a while, I believe I was the highest PA finisher.

I can tell you one thing, I was playing for the win, and landing on a lot of horses other people weren't, ultimately they were just running flat a few thirds and fourths, then I had one winner and one 2nd at 11-1 which would have been a lot different outcome if that horse does win I was the only one with the horse.

All in all great time for this NHC Rookie ( while true, it was the 14th Vegas tournament I qualified for, I literally just couldn't ever qualify outright for NHC so I had to switch approach and get in with tour points this year )

Jason
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Old 08-31-2021, 11:02 AM   #25
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Although I haven't had much online presence or activity in a while, I believe I was the highest PA finisher.

I can tell you one thing, I was playing for the win, and landing on a lot of horses other people weren't, ultimately they were just running flat a few thirds and fourths, then I had one winner and one 2nd at 11-1 which would have been a lot different outcome if that horse does win I was the only one with the horse.

All in all great time for this NHC Rookie ( while true, it was the 14th Vegas tournament I qualified for, I literally just couldn't ever qualify outright for NHC so I had to switch approach and get in with tour points this year )

Jason
Correct me if I'm wrong but I got the feeling that there weren't a lot of big (15-1 or higher) prices coming in especially in the mandatory races.
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Old 08-31-2021, 11:12 AM   #26
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Correct me if I'm wrong but I got the feeling that there weren't a lot of big (15-1 or higher) prices coming in especially in the mandatory races.
Andy,

I still have to analyze and review all of my plays and the race outcomes but, but I caught the 27-1 winner at woodbine on day 1. I had the horse at 3:45am ( still on East Coast time at that point ) when I woke up and started handicapping the Woodbine card.

The final table you are 100% correct other than the last race. I can tell you that I had the 11-1 1 horse at Delmar, it held second, and I was the only one at the final table with the horse so if it wins different story but that is the nature of the beast everyone has the " if this horse just could have won " story..

Ultimately I had a stellar finish for what was honestly just three days of solid handicapping, however never once did I catch fire, I hit more winners most weeks this time of year or Keeneland just playing cash and online qualifiers at home than I did at Bally's

IF anyone cares I will post how many 1st 2nd 3rd 4th finishers that I had last week once I review it all.

Jason
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Old 08-31-2021, 12:09 PM   #27
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Andy,

I still have to analyze and review all of my plays and the race outcomes but, but I caught the 27-1 winner at woodbine on day 1. I had the horse at 3:45am ( still on East Coast time at that point ) when I woke up and started handicapping the Woodbine card.

The final table you are 100% correct other than the last race. I can tell you that I had the 11-1 1 horse at Delmar, it held second, and I was the only one at the final table with the horse so if it wins different story but that is the nature of the beast everyone has the " if this horse just could have won " story..

Ultimately I had a stellar finish for what was honestly just three days of solid handicapping, however never once did I catch fire, I hit more winners most weeks this time of year or Keeneland just playing cash and online qualifiers at home than I did at Bally's

IF anyone cares I will post how many 1st 2nd 3rd 4th finishers that I had last week once I review it all.

Jason
Thanks for the information. And good luck in the future
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Old 08-31-2021, 04:11 PM   #28
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Andy,

I still have to analyze and review all of my plays and the race outcomes but, but I caught the 27-1 winner at woodbine on day 1. I had the horse at 3:45am ( still on East Coast time at that point ) when I woke up and started handicapping the Woodbine card.

The final table you are 100% correct other than the last race. I can tell you that I had the 11-1 1 horse at Delmar, it held second, and I was the only one at the final table with the horse so if it wins different story but that is the nature of the beast everyone has the " if this horse just could have won " story..

Ultimately I had a stellar finish for what was honestly just three days of solid handicapping, however never once did I catch fire, I hit more winners most weeks this time of year or Keeneland just playing cash and online qualifiers at home than I did at Bally's

IF anyone cares I will post how many 1st 2nd 3rd 4th finishers that I had last week once I review it all.

Jason
Would love if you can post your picks...

I watched the result boards all weekend....

Those final few races is where the strategy had to kick in ....

Question: what tools do you use?

thxs
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Old 08-31-2021, 05:59 PM   #29
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Would love if you can post your picks...

I watched the result boards all weekend....

Those final few races is where the strategy had to kick in ....

Question: what tools do you use?

thxs
Assuming it is Jason Phillips, he did take home the automatic berth to NHC 2022 for being the highest finishing STATS Race Lens subscriber - so we can be pretty sure about ONE tool!

Again - so cool that two PA board members finished in the Top 10!!!
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Old 09-01-2021, 10:05 AM   #30
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Thank you, and so cool yes I am Jason Phillips, curious what Afleet name is as I met most of the final table members, and if you say you were not nervous at all either then I know at least one guy you are NOT because I thought he was going to fall out a few times he all but said he was going to . I also wore my old Colonial Downs trucker hat at final table.

Yes I used Stats Race Lens, NOT for my handicapping. The reason I bought Stats program before going, and tweaked it some at Colonial the week before I flew out because I hadn't used it since my last Vegas contest which had to be HPWS 2019 I think, is because Stats is a terrific contest prep tool and so much time savings, I load certain angles or race types so it flags and I know to be sure not to miss that race or horse. It is also fantastic because you can customize a lot of the program to your liking however you prefer the info displayed highlighted, etc. Lastly, you can watch the replays with a click of a button right on the horse running line just click the date and replay comes up within a second.

However, I have used Brisnet pps for years, straight up pencil and paper style handicapping but on my computer. I am self taught since 17 years old ( 19 years now ) and I have been developing my game ever since. I have to give a massive shout out to one of my best friend's Mike ( aka PICSIX ). For years around the Richmond area I was known as one of the best turf handicappers around, that is due to teaching myself at Colonial..... However I was horrible at dirt racing other than the stakes races. Mike knew this and thought it was because I might be seeing the races and landing on closers like I normally would on turf, and we learned it's because I had trouble really seeing speed or lack of speed in a race, so he helped me work on that for a few years.

Ultimately I have said for years, maybe on here even, that I can handicap with anyone on any given day. I am not scared to go against a single person in the room in these style tournaments. Ultimately the horses have to run regardless, and if they do it is all about making the least amount of mistakes as possible. If they don't run that contest weekend it really doesn't matter anyway.

Jason
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